DISSIDENT SAYS REGIME SEES NO CHOICE BUT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000930 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2017 TAGS: CU PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SUBJECT: DISSIDENT SAYS REGIME SEES NO CHOICE BUT TO INSTITUTE SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC REFORMS Classified By: COM: Michael E. Parmly: For reasons 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Leading dissident Rene Gomez Manzano believes that Raul Castro has a government team in place that is committed to instituting meaningful economic reforms. He also believes that Fidel is no longer a factor in policy decisions. Gomez thinks Raul and his allies in the government see that the economy is in catastrophic condition and that they need to take significant measures to ensure the availability of basic goods. In regards to the upcoming elections he believes that the government will manipulate the process to ensure its own continuation. He thinks efforts by other dissident leaders to demand that the elections offer a referendum on the current system of government lack popular support. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) In a conversation with COM noted dissident lawyer and released political prisoner Rene Gomez Manzano said that Fidel Castro is no longer a factor in Cuban politics and that Raul Castro intends to push economic reforms. Gomez is a prominent attorney who had defended many dissidents before joining the opposition himself in the 1990"s. He is a leader of the Assembly to Promote Civil Society and has written a number of articles about the Cuban legal system. He previously served three years in prison for signing a document criticizing the Communist Party. More recently he was released on February 8, 2007 after being in jail for a year and a half without ever being charged. (His pleas that holding a person for more than six months without a charge is a violation of Cuba's Penal Code fell upon deaf ears). ¶3. (C) Gomez said he has no doubts that Raul Castro means to take substantive measures to develop the economy, including reforms of private property laws and measures to entice foreign investment. He believes that Raul is putting together a government team that is committed to these efforts. He is certain that Raul's people realize that the economy is a complete catastrophe and see no alternative other than instituting significant reforms. Gomez believes that this leadership group has no fears that creating opportunities will lead to an uncontrollable wave of rising expectations that could result in something like the Gobachov era Soviet collapse. The key to maintaining control is providing sufficient basic goods and services. Gomez views Raul's July 26th speech as indicating a policy move towards accomplishing that goal. He thought that the article published by Fidel Castro immediately after Raul's speech calling any loosening of the socialist economy "poison" represented the position of hard-liners in the regime who have already lost the debate. ¶4. (C) Gomez also discussed the upcoming elections. He stated that the municipal elections scheduled to be held on October 21 will be the first time that local committees can nominate multiple candidates. As many as 8 candidates can be proposed for each seat. While this is an opportunity for youth, women's and other the grassroots organizations to have more impact on local matters, Gomez pointed out that only party militants attend the meetings that are tasked with nominating candidates and the regime can easily manipulate the results. He stated that the elections are a way for the regime to perpetuate itself and consolidate Raul's position. However, he dismissed as lacking in public support efforts by other prominent dissidents (Paya, Chaviano, Farinas) to show the fraudulent nature of the process by demanding that citizens should have a referendum on the system of government. ¶5. (C) Comment: What should the posture be towards the upcoming elections and whether the promises of economic reforms under Raul's administration have any credibility are two of the most polemical issues confronting all Cubans, but especially the opposition. While some dissidents think shining a spotlight on the elections will put into focus the HAVANA 00000930 002 OF 002 illegitimacy of the regime, Gomez does not see this issue as having much resonance with the general public. With regards to the economy, many key dissidents, such as Martha Beatriz Roque, think that there is no way that the regime will risk any loosening of control of the economy, and that Raul is deliberately making false promises to lull the population into inactivity. On the other hand, Gomez believes that the government has accepted economic reforms as an inevitability. These widely differing interpretations of the regime's actions within the opposition have resulted in a great diversity of opinions as to how the dissidents should respond. At the same time we are encouraged by the vibrancy of genuine Cuban democracy that such diversity reflects. The challenge is for dissidents to keep in mind what unites them- release of political prisoners, freedom of expression and organization- above and beyond where they differ among themselves. PARMLY