CUBA: KEY DISSIDENTS' EXTERNAL NETWORKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000526 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2017 TAGS: PREL KDEM PHUM CU EUN SUBJECT: CUBA: KEY DISSIDENTS' EXTERNAL NETWORKING REF: A. HAVANA 488 ¶B. HAVANA 503 HAVANA 00000526 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly; reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Dissident leaders Vladimiro Roca, Martha Beatriz Roque (MBR),and Oswaldo Paya spoke at length this week to Pol-Econ Counselor about their off-island networking, with most emphasis on Europeans and the exile Cuban community in the USA. Highlights follow: -- Unity for Liberty document: Roca was pleased with the large number of signatures the document was gaining on the island, and pointed out that it would stay open for more signatures longer than the one month originally planned. Off the island, Roca was concerned that "Miami" and Europe were trying to exert influence or interfere with the forging of the opposition's unity. He said that exile groups in the USA were overly sensitive about the document's phrasing on political prisoners, objecting to the term "peaceful" as a qualifier, which was put into the text by Oswaldo Paya. Europeans, said Roca, were interpreting the document as a way to achieve dissident unity with Paya as the leader. Roca did not blame Paya for this, nor has Paya himself said anything remotely resembling a play for leadership; but that is the message Roca is hearing from Europeans. -- Letter to EU: Roca showed us the text of a letter the democratic opposition had planned to send to the EU, in advance of COLAT and ministerial level meetings regarding the EU common position on Cuba (Ref B). MBR had prepared this draft, but told us May 25 that Paya was objecting to the text because it did not use the same language as the Unity Document regarding "peaceful" political prisoners. MBR described the discussion with Paya as respectful, but with a sharp difference of opinion. They are working to bridge the gap, but understand that on the one hand Paya will resist signing the text without a change, but on the other hand much of the rest of the opposition will sign and want to send it as is, with or without Paya's signature. -- MBR Nobel Prize: MBR is a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize, with her original support coming from French Parliamentarian Francoise Hostelier, and additional help from Spanish Socialists in the Canary Islands. It doesn't hurt that MBR has a cousin that lives in the Canary Islands. She has exchanged e-mail this week with European Parliament member Jose Ribeiro e Costa on this subject, and also on the subject of Hugo Chavez abridging free speech by shutting down the RCTV network. -- Roca/Senator Menendez: Vladimiro Roca is in touch with Senator Robert Menendez (D/NJ) about setting up a live video-conference probably in mid to late June. USINT would host and facilitate from this end; the objectives, according to Roca would be to: (1) Seek more support for the Cuban opposition within the Democratic party; and (2) make specific requests for material assistance. Roca understood that this event would be made transparent to the Florida Republican Cuban-American congressmen and Senator, even if they were not participating in it. Roca said he expected that they would understand his attempt to broaden U.S. political support for the democratic opposition on the island. -- Foreign Visitors: As we reported ref A, there has been no serious dissident reach-back to the Spanish embassy's outreach to the opposition in advance of the Spanish foreign ministry's visit next week to discuss human rights with the GOC. Ditto for the visit May 24-25 of the Canadian deputy foreign minister. For the unofficial U.S. congressional delegation that is visiting during the week of May 28, USINT will seek to work in side excursions to dissidents' homes or to another venue where the congresspeople can hear opposition viewpoints. -------------- COMMENT AND ANALYSIS: -------------- ¶2. (C) Unity for Liberty: Opposition unity is significant, and sends a message to the world and to the Cuban regime that the dissident movement has matured. But the unity is also fragile, and throws together individuals who have a history of personality conflicts and rivalries and also bona-fide political differences. We hope Paya and the others can find HAVANA 00000526 002.3 OF 002 a formula for how to qualify (or not) "political prisoners" in their letter to the EU. This is an emotional issue for Paya, whose Christian Liberation Movement believes firmly in peaceful civil disobedience, but also for NGOs and exiles in Miami, who include former political prisoners who took part in armed resistance to the Castro dictatorship in the 1960s. In our own contact work with dissidents and with exile groups we go out of our way to be inclusive, urging them (1) to focus on what unites them rather than what divides them; and (2) to leave political differences to be hammered out later, after they all work together now to change the regime. ¶3. (C) Video-Conferences as Examples: Two recent videoconferences showed both unifying and divisive trends both on and off the island. For the one we organized between Liberal Parties in Cuba and the International Liberal Conference in Cancun (April 29),we found ourselves in the middle of an argument among Cubans regarding who was a bona-fide Liberal. We went on the air with this unresolved, were able to paper it over and still make a favorable impact with the International Liberals, and continued afterwards to urge the feuding parties on the Island to reconcile. The videoconference we organized for Damas de Blanco on Mothers Day ran into some elbow-throwing among groups in Miami, and a boycott by prominent Dama Miriam Leyva in Havana, who objects to NGOs in Miami that she considers "too right wing." Once again, the event was immensely successful for all those who participated, which we see as a much more important message than the bickering behind the scenes. ¶4. (C) Euros: Europeans (and Canadians) with few exceptions tend to accept the stereotype, advanced actively by the regime, that exile Cubans in Miami are right-wing extremists. For this reason, they largely line up behind Oswaldo Paya, whose differences with SOME parts of the U.S. exile community reinforce their view that he is the opposition horse they should bet on. Ironically, Spain's mishandling of the early-April visit by FonMin Moratinos has had the effect of pushing Paya closer to the rest of the opposition, and closer to Miami. ¶5. (C) Conclusion: It is a gross oversimplification to identify Paya with Europe and MBR with Miami. The former has many trusted contacts (and relatives) in Miami, just as the latter does with Europe. However, there is a slight fault line in Cuba that roughly matches the Europe/Miami divide, and this is a problem for opposition unity. The Cuban regime will seek to exploit and magnify any divisions it finds in the opposition, as it has done for years. Our message, which we think bears repeating over and over with all our interlocutors -- dissidents, third-country diplomats, media, CODELs, NGOs -- is that opposition feuding helps the regime, and perpetuates totalitarian rule. The dissidents are in a much better place than they were as recently as three months ago, but we want to help them build on that new-found position, rather than fall back into bickering. We have recently had highly productive contacts with prominent exiles in Miami and, as recorded above, with their co-religionists on the island. We don't view this as mission impossible. PARMLY