CASTRO CALLS IN TO CHAVEZ' RADIO SHOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000198 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON VE CU SUBJECT: CASTRO CALLS IN TO CHAVEZ' RADIO SHOW HAVANA 00000198 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Summary: Media Tuesday evening February 27 aired a tape of Fidel Castro's call to Hugo Chavez during the latter's on-air radio show called "Alo Presidente." We believe the half-hour conversation was genuine, and did not appear edited. Castro and Chavez commented on Tuesday's stock-market declines, on Castro's health, on cooperation agreements between the two countries and briefly on how Cuba "marches on" during Castro's illness. The conversation took place while a Venezuelan Ministerial delegation was in Havana to sign 1.5 billion dollars worth of trade and investment deals, the centerpiece of which was ethanol production, according to Cuban media. Reactions to Castro's radio appearance run the range from coached man-in-the-street media interviews that say "We're so happy he's getting better," to dissident views to the effect that the Cuban people are insulted by not hearing about their leader's health directly instead of via Venezuela. Castro's speech seemed labored and partially incoherent, but no less coherent than in his January 28 video clip with Chavez. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) State-run propaganda newsmagazine show "Mesa Redonda" aired a tape Tuesday evening of Fidel Castro's call to Hugo Chavez while the latter was hosting his radio call-in show "Alo Presidente." TV images accompanying the audio were a combination of still photos of Castro and Chavez, plus replays of video clips from their last visit together in Havana at the end of January. However, unlike the video clips in January, which were clearly edited down from two hours of raw footage to ten usable minutes, Tuesday's tape appeared uncut. It went on for 32 minutes, including some awkward pauses, providing some evidence of the state of Fidel Castro's health. -- His speech was raspy, labored and slurred, but not to the point that he couldn't make himself understood; -- At the end of some of his longer interventions the strength of Castro's voice seemed to fade, indicating fatigue; -- Content rambled and was often incoherent, but in a manner consistent with Castro's longer public speeches before his July 2006 incapacitation. ¶3. (U) Content of the Castro-Chavez conversation has been fully reported in open media sources; what we see as highlights are: -- Both Chavez and Castro making reference to Tuesday's sharp stock-market declines in Shanghai and New York, concluding that capitalism is inferior to socialism. Leaving aside the silly economic analysis, Castro's reference to the world markets provides a verifiable time-stamp to the audio-tape, and shows him keeping abreast of world events; -- Cuba-Venezuela Business: With a high-level Venezuelan delegation in Havana, Castro's reference to an agreement to build 11 ethanol plants and projections that bilateral trade will increase to 1.5 billion dollars, again shows Castro involved in managing Cuba's big-ticket affairs, and continuing his obsession with energy-industry projects; -- Castro said he's feeling better, and that Cuba marches on normally during his long convalescence. ¶4. (C) Reactions: International press accredited in Havana ran some street interviews, but seemed to select only those willing to give their names, and therefore certain to say that they're pleased to see that Fidel Castro is recovering. More common reactions were to observe that Cuban people deserve better than to learn about their leader's health and status only via coverage that features Hugo Chavez. Cubans tell us they are puzzled by the absence of Raul Castro in these Fidel/Hugo productions, and are not entirely clear as to who is really in charge of the country. Oswaldo Paya commented that each time they trot Fidel Castro out, "...they demonstrate how impossible a task it will be for the regime to announce that he finally died." Cuban day-to-day life goes on without any interruption, although with an anxiety beneath the surface regarding how much longer this mystery regarding Fidel Castro will go on. ¶5. (C) Comment: Castro's comments about world markets are HAVANA 00000198 002.3 OF 002 especially ironic given that the steepest declines were in Shanghai while Cuba's economic engagement with China is growing. A lot of ink and paper have been consumed to analyze whether or not Raul Castro will follow the "Chinese model" when he's fully in charge; are they going to let a one-day stock-price slide scare them away? Regarding "Cuba marching on normally," it begs the question as to what passes for normal: Continued repression of basic rights; crumbling infrastructure; poor services in transportation and health; and no opportunity to improve one's lot without emigrating to the United States. "Normal" really refers to the absence of street protests, which is largely a function of the "normal" functioning of the state's security services. PARMLY