AMENDMENT 18

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000858 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S.HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: AMENDMENT 18 Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren under 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) In a choreographed parliamentary session on September 18, ZANU-PF and the MDC agreed to the adoption of Amendment 18 to the Constitution which will harmonize presidential and parliamentary elections, expand the size of Parliament, and mandate Parliament to elect the president in the event of a vacancy. Agreement on Amendment 18 is seen as part of the SADC mediation process; in exchange for its position on Amendment 18, the MDC expects to win concessions in a final SADC agreement that will involve electoral reform, reform of repressive legislation, continued negotiation on a new constitution, and a date for elections. End Summary. -------------- The Amendment 18 agreement -------------- ¶2. (U) The proposed amendment, as read to Parliament by Patrick Chinimasa, Minister of Justice and ZANU-PF SADC negotiator, provides changes as follows: --a reduction in the presidential term from six to five years, which will permit harmonized presidential, parliamentary, and local elections next year; --an increase in the number of House of Assembly members from 150 to 210, all of whom will be elected; --an increase in the number of Senators from 60 to 93--60 will be directly elected (six per province),10 will be provincial governors appointed by the president, 16 will be provincial chiefs appointed by the president and deputy president from all provinces except Harare and Bulawayo, and seven will be appointed by the president and will represent special interests; --Parliament will elect the president in the event of a vacancy; --The Electoral Commission will delimit parliamentary and local constituencies. ¶3. (U) In his remarks, Chinimasa stated that Amendment 18 was part of a two-track process. The other track was the continuing SADC negotiations. ¶4. (U) MDC Anti-Senate Vice-President Thokozani Khupe (Tsvangirai's deputy) responded that as a "confidence building" measure in the context of the SADC negotiations, the MDC would not stand in the way of the passage of Amendment 18. She noted the MDC had received assurances that negotiations were ongoing on critical issues such as a Bill of Rights, independent electoral commission, and overhaul of restrictive security, electoral, and media laws; and emphasized that the MDC regarded the outcome of Amendment 18 "as the first step towards a holistic resolution of the national crisis." During her presentation, Khupe evoked loud--and knowledgeable--laughter from both sides when she remarked that Zimbabwean families were divided between ZANU-PF and the MDC, between ZANU-PF and ZANU-PF, and between the MDC and the MDC. ¶5. (U) MDC Pro-Senate Secretary-General Welshman Ncube and Pro-Senate Vice-President Gibson Sibanda followed Khupe. Ncube stated that both factions of the MDC had caucused together over Amendment 18, and continued to negotiate as one entity in the SADC mediation. In contrast to Khupe, who said HARARE 00000858 002 OF 003 the MDC would not stand in the way of the adoption of the amendment, Ncube expressed positive support. Both Ncube and Sibanda struck a conciliatory note, highlighting the importance of dialogue between the two parties, progress made to date, and expressing hope that agreement on Amendment 18 represented an "historic moment" in finding solitions to Zimbabwe's crisis. Ncube acknowledged that civil society, particularly the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) had long resisted piecemeal change to the Constitution. Seeking to assuage critics, he said Amendment 18 was an interim step; negotiations would continue on a new constitution. -------------- Zimbabwean Reaction -------------- ¶6. (U) The Herald, the government-controlled daily, trumpeted in a banner headline, "ZANU-PF, MDC agree to amend Constitution". Demonstrating that all is not roses, a companion article, implying that the MDC was beholden to the West, stated that Tsvangirai had consulted the British ambassador to Zimbabwe before meeting last weekend with South African president Mbeki to discuss the SADC process. The article quoted an International Crisis Group (ICG) report that the MDC was bitterly divided and unable to mount a viable opposition against ZANU-PF. ¶7. (C) Eldred Masanangure, a University of Zimbabwe political scientist considered an objective analyst, told us he had expected an explosive clash between the parties over Amendment 18. He thought the agreement on the amendment was a significant milestone in post-2000 politics. It would be "irresponsible" to think the SADC negotiations, of which Amendment 18 was a part, represented business as usual. -------------- Next Steps -------------- ¶8. (C) We understand from MDC sources that negotiations will continue on reform of the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA),the Public Order and Security Act (POSA),a new electoral law, and a new constitution. Also to be agreed upon is the timing of next year's election. The MDC realizes it is unprepared for elections. And assuming agreement on reforms is achieved, it needs time to benefit from these reforms in terms of organizing and unrestricted campaigning. Therefore, the MDC would like a delay of at least six months of the elections now scheduled for March. Mugabe, on the other hand, realizes his advantage, and would like the elections to proceed as scheduled, although he might agree to a postponement to June in order to run with an improved economy. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Zimbabweans on all sides are tired, and there is a marked--and unusual--sense of optimism across the political divide. But the reality is that Amendment 18 is a bare beginning and much remains to be done. We don't for a minute think that Mugabe will make concessions he doesn't think will ultimately benefit him. For now he believes he can allow constitutional and legislative reform, and still win the election and gain legitimacy in the process. The MDC has to ask whether an agreement on paper will translate to basic HARARE 00000858 003 OF 003 freedoms on the ground. Will there be a truly independent electoral commission that will allow people throughout the country to freely register? Will it be able to organize and campaign throughout the country without interference from the government or its surrogates? Will the government use food aid to coerce voters? ¶10. (C) For now, the SADC process represents the best hope for change in Zimbabwe. Perhaps even more important than an actual agreement is the implementation of an agreement. It is critical that any SADC outcome provide for implementation and monitoring. DHANANI