MATABELELAND AND BULAWAYO OBSERVATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000849 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S.HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ZI SUBJECT: MATABELELAND AND BULAWAYO OBSERVATIONS Classified By: Polecon chief Glenn Warren for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In addition to severe shortages of goods caused by the GOZ's price control policies, Bulawayo and Matabeleland South are suffering from a critical lack of water. Nevertheless, people are until now coping and there is no evidence of starvation. Although this area of the country is solidly anti-ZANU-PF, the ruling party has strong administrative structures to manipulate and intimidate voters. There is consensus the MDC split will hurt the party in upcoming elections by splitting the vote. Most people do not understand the inability of the party's factions to form a coalition, and are becoming increasingly convinced the MDC cannot prevail against ZANU-PF in elections. The MDC continues to complain about a lack of resources to prepare for an election, although the anti-Senate faction recently received $750,000 from Sweden. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The following are polecon chief's observations based on visits to Bulawayo and Nkayi in rural Matabeleland South. -------------- Scarcities, but Still Coping -------------- ¶3. (U) In Bulawayo, once the industrial engine of Zimbabwe, shelves are empty and there is no automobile fuel in most stations. There is a severe lack of water, a consequence of this year's drought, an inadequate reservoir system, and crumbling infrastructure that includes disabled wells. People continue to cope through mechanisms now well-known. Young people go to South Africa to work, people whose rural homes are in agricultural areas go to these homes for maize, and cross border traders bring back food and goods, including fuel, to sell on the black market to those who, mostly through remittances, can pay. Entrepreneurial Zimbabweans seek out new ways to profit from the situation. We heard of one individual who bought a number of vans to ferry the increasing number of Zimbabweans fleeing the country to the border. ¶4. (U) Nkayi is about two hours north of Bulawayo in cattle ranching country. There is little agriculture here; people have traditionally relied on the sale of cattle for money to buy food and goods. Price controls have resulted in beef being withheld from the market. With the little money they have, people buy grain from the government's Grain Marketing Board--when it's available. We were told that many eat only one meal a day. As in Bulawayo, there are acute water shortages--equipment to pump water from the nearest river is broken, and well have not been maintained. ¶5. (U) The scarcity of fuel has made it difficult for buses and vans to ply the Nkayi-Bulawayo route. Additionally, the mandated ceilings on passenger tariffs have made public transportation uneconomical for vehicle owners. As a result, when owners have fuel to travel, they will charge passengers a tariff that allows them to profit, but issue passengers with a receipt for the lesser, government-controlled amount. If stopped at a police road block, they instruct passengers to show the falsified receipt. ¶6. (U) The government secondary school in Nkayi has six HARARE 00000849 002 OF 003 hundred co-educational students, many of them boarders. School fees for the term (education and room and board) are the parallel market equivalent of about $US 10. According to the headmaster, the fees are insufficient to buy supplies, but the government, pandering to parents with limited incomes, refuses to raise them. The school has managed to get limited supplies of food for the students, but facilities, including science laboratories, are deteriorating. While the school should have 31 teachers, it now has 24. Some have left to become cross-boarder traders; others have gone to South Africa. -------------- ZANU-PF Rural Structures Strong -------------- ¶7. (C) We visited the school with Nkayi Member of Parliament, Abenico Bhebbe. Bhebbe, a member of the pro-Senate MDC faction, graduated from the school in 1982. After discussing possible applications on the part of the school to the Ambassador's Self-Help Fund, we were informed that the District Administrator (DA) wished to see us. We proceeded to her office; also present for what she described as a meeting of the district "Development Committee" were the local head of police and members of the CIO. The DA insisted that the provincial governor be notified of all visits and projects to the province; Bhebbe insisted that the school was under the jurisdiction of the local council and that such notification was unnecessary. ¶8. (C) Bhebbe told us afterward that despite the district--and province--being heavily MDC, ZANU-PF through its appointed governor and through district administrators, police, and CIO, continued to flex its muscle. Local ZANU-PF administrators wanted to be informed of any projects in order to take credit for them. Importantly, the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) used maize sales to traditional leaders as a means of extending patronage to their clan members, the ultimate recipients. In this way, the government was attempting to maintain its influence in elections. -------------- MDC Split Harmful -------------- ¶9. (SBU) People we met in both Bulawayo and Nkayi opined that the MDC split had resulted in confusion about what each faction stood for, and had engendered a sense of apathy--if the MDC couldn't work together, what chance would it have of winning? Some of our interlocutors also commented that the MDC was being viewed ethnically, with the Mutambara-led pro-Senate faction being the party of the Ndebele and the Tsvangirai anti-Senate faction seen as the Shona party. SIPDIS ZANU-PF did not have much support--as one young woman said, given a choice between a donkey and a ZANU-PF candidate, most everyone would vote for the donkey--but the ruling party nevertheless could benefit from reduced voter turnout in the region. ¶10. (C) Eddie Cross, the anti-Senate faction coordinator in Bulawayo, complained about an acute lack of resources for campaigning in the upcoming election. He did note that Sweden, through the Olaf Palme foundation, had recently given his party $750,000, which included 17 pick-up trucks. -------------- Comment HARARE 00000849 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶11. (C) With elections on the horizon, the MDC has held some rallies, but has yet to begin organizing in the rural areas of Matabeleland. Its task is made difficult by a lack of resources, the failure to achieve a coalition of its two factions, and ZANU-PF organization. The ruling party's structures in Matabeleland, which is MDC country, are impressive. They are even stronger and more pervasive in ZANU-PF's traditional stronghold of Mashonaland where the MDC must make some inroads to be competitive in a national election. DHANANI