TENDAI BITI ON SADC NEGOTIATIONS, ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000781 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S.HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ZI SUBJECT: TENDAI BITI ON SADC NEGOTIATIONS, ELECTIONS Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren under 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Tendai Biti, MDC anti-Senate secretary-general, believes substantial progress has been made in SADC-sponsored negotiations toward a new constitution. Agreement on the constitution, electoral reform, and repeal of repressive legislation, however, is unlikely before March elections. Any agreements reached now with ZANU-PF are viewed by the MDC as stepping stones on the road to an eventual legitimate government. ¶2. (C) According to Biti, the MDC split has been "devastating" for the opposition. He and pro-Senate secretary-general Welshman Ncube have agreed to meet with SIPDIS Brian Raftopolous in another effort to establish a coalition. Biti expects the elections to be rigged and Mugabe to win. While the MDC will campaign hard, it is hampered by lack of cash to organize and campaign, particularly in the rural areas. End Summary. ¶3. (SBU) Charge and polecon chief had meetings with Biti on August 30 and August 31 respectively. -------------- SADC Progress -------------- ¶4. (C) Biti said he and fellow MDC negotiator Welshman Ncube had had numerous meetings with ZANU-PF negotiators Patrick Chinimasa and Nicholas Goche, since the ZANU-PF team was a no-show in South Africa in June. He praised the South Africans, who he thought had pressured Chinimasa and Goche to take the negotiations seriously. ¶5. (C) The subject of the negotiations until now, according to Biti, had been a new constitution. They were using the 2003-2004 constitution, negotiated by Chinimasa and Ncube (but rejected by their parties) as a basis for talks. Agreement had been reached on a bill of rights, which Biti deemed excellent; restricted powers of the executive; separation of powers; provincial governance. Other agenda items such as electoral reform, AIPPA and POSA, and the climate of violence had not yet been addressed. ¶6. (C) An area of continuing disagreement, Biti said, was proportional representation in parliamentary elections which the MDC strongly supports as a way of diluting ZANU-PF electoral strength and intimidation. (Note: With proportional representation in Zimbabwe, voters could vote anywhere in the province and would not be subject to pressure from their local political leaders. Candidates would be elected according to their percentage of votes in the province rather than elected from a specific constiuency. End Note.) He noted ironically that in opposing proportional representation, Chinimasa and Goche had pointed to the U.S. as having a well-functioning system that does not have proportional representation. -------------- ZANU-PF Strategy -------------- ¶7. (C) We posited that an agreement on constitutional and ¶8. (C) As negotiations continued, ZANU-PF had asked the MDC negotiators to co-sponsor a revised Amendment 18 that would have provisions agreeable to had a number of provisions anathema to the MDC. Knowing that Amendment 18 would be passed, however, with or without MDC support, Biti said the MDC might not actively oppose it. The Amendment did have a couple of good provisions, including transferring authority to delimit parliamentary districts from the widely-detested Registrar of Voters to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) which, although not presently independent, was not as biased as the Registrar. -------------- What's in it for the MDC -------------- ¶9. (C) Biti said he was "priviledged" to be negotiating a new constitution and democratic reform and called it an "historic" moment. He doubted the task would be accomplished before the March elections, but said this was part of a process. After elections, which he assumed would be rigged and would result in Mugabe's reelection, the MDC would continue to negotiate for a new constitution, and for legal and electoral reforms. The goal would be a free and fair election, as soon as possible, under the new constitution. To the extent the government resisted, the opposition would have to consider how to apply pressure, including a return to the streets. -------------- On the MDC Split and Elections -------------- ¶10. (C) Biti termed the failure of the two MDC factions to agree on a coaltion "devastating." Some supporters had begun to view the MDC cynically, and lack of electoral unity would hurt the MDC in Matabeleland. The relationship between Biti and Ncube, although they continued to negotiate together, had become strained. There was a ray of hope--Biti and Ncube had agreed to meet in South Africa with Brian Raftopoulos to once again explore an electoral coaltion. (Note. Raftopolous, a former University of Zimbabwe professor and long-time MDC advisor, is now with Solidarity Peace Trust in South Africa. He has made previous efforts to negotiate an end to the MDC split. End Note.) ¶11. (C) Apart from the MDC split, Biti was pessimistic about the MDC's electoral chances. He acknowledged the importance of the rural areas, traditionally won in elections by ZANU-PF. He said the MDC had insufficient resources to organize and campaign in rural Zimbabwe--at a basic level it didn't even have the fuel to travel. He emphasized that the MDC was contesting the election not just against a political party, but against the State with all its resources. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) With a demonstrably unlevel electoral playing field, and with continued government repression, the MDC had considered, according to Biti, boycotting the elections. Most Members of Parliament were not agreeable as it would have meant losing the emoluments of their offices. But by participating in the SADC process and contesting the election, the MDC runs the risk of SADC, and perhaps the wider international community, declaring a ZANU-PF win legitimate. Given that the MDC is going to take this risk, it is important the party go all out in organizing and campaigning in order to expose the unfairness of the electoral process in the likely event of a loss. DHANANI