MANDAZA AND MOYO ON SADC TALKS, MUGABE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000680 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S.HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: MANDAZA AND MOYO ON SADC TALKS, MUGABE Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren under 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) SADC talks between the GOZ and MDC are unlikely to bear fruit according to Ibbo Mandaza and Jonathan Moyo. Although the MDC has made discussions on a new constitution the cornerstone of the talks, and although the first agenda item agreed to in South Africa in June was constitutional discussions, the GOZ has decided that any such discussions should take place within Parliament and not South Africa. On an exit for Mugabe, both Mandaza and Moyo believe that strong opposition to Mugabe continues within ZANU-PF; in particular, opponents are mobilizing at the provincial level. The key marker will be the ZANU-PF Congress in December. If Mugabe feels he has lost support, he will announce his intention to retire before the Congress. End Summary. ngQ| KQQQMP and former Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo. -------------- SADC Talks in Jeopardy -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Moyo, after ZANU-PF negotiators Patrick Chinimasa and Nicholas Goche had agreed in South Africa in June to an agenda that included as its first item constitutional talks, the ZANU-PF Central Committee and cabinet agreed that any constitutional talks should take place within Parliament. Since the MDC had placed a priority on negotiating a new constitution, Moyo thought the talks would stall over this issue, which would play into Mugabe's strategy of giving the appearance of participation, but making no genuine effort to resolve the current political and economic crisis. Moyo also opined that a crucial problem with the talks was that there were no terms of reference for the mediation to define the discussions. Therefore, the talks would continue to focus on what should be discussed rather than substantive issues. ¶4. (C) Mandaza also felt the talks were going nowhere. The MDC was fractured and weak and almost irrelevant; it's only strength was as an anti-Mugabe platform. Mandaza strongly believed there should be86aN'(@j have been few recent reports of internal ZANU-PF dissension, strong opposition to Mugabe continues. In June, Mandaza told the South Africa Institute of International Affairs that Mugabe would be gone by September. He expressed less certainty on July 27, but claimed that at least seven (of 10) ZANU-PF provincial executive committees now opposed Mugabe. Both interlocutors agreed that the ZANU-PF Congress in December would be the crucial marker. Recognizing he had opposition within the party, Mugabe had sidestepped a vote on his endorsement as the ZANU-PF presidential candidate at the HARARE 00000680 002 OF 002 Central Committee meeting in March; to run he would need nomination by the Congress in December. (Note: Others have told us a Congress is necessary only if the party intends to nominate a candidate other than Mugabe; as the head of the party he is the presumptive nominee. End Note.) If he felt his support was weak, he would avoid a possibly humiliating vote and announce his intention to step down before the Congress. ¶6. (C) Mandaza and Moyo were of two minds regarding the effect of the recent price controls on support for Mugabe and ZANU-PF. Mandaza thought the food shortages resulting from the controls would increase pressure for change from within ZANU-PF. Moyo, on the other hand, thought that in the short term Mugabe's argument that shortages were caused by outside influences would have traction among Zimbabwe's poor. Even when the shelves were full, he said, most Zimbabweans couldn't afford the available goods. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Over the last nine months we have reported on dissension within ZANU-PF, including efforts by the military to convince Mugabe to step aside, and opposition from the Mujuru camp. Some of this has spilled out publicly to the press. Recently, however, there have been few such reports. And with his recent action in imposing price controls and his speech this week at the opening of Parliament indicating he would run for reelection, Mugabe has sought to portray himself as firmly in control. Nevertheless, there is dissension in the ranks, significantly in provincial executive committees. Since Mugabe has not received the endorsement of his party, a behind the scenes struggle is likely to continue, with the outcome becoming known sometime before the Congress in December. DHANANI