TREVOR MANHANGA ON MEETINGS WITH MUGABE AND GONO,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000656 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S.HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ZI SUBJECT: TREVOR MANHANGA ON MEETINGS WITH MUGABE AND GONO, VIEWS ON PIUS NCUBE Classified By: Charge d'affaires, a.i. Katherine Dhanani under Section 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary. Evangelical Bishop Trevor Manhanga, Chairman of the Heads of Christian Denominations in Zimbabwe, spoke with Poleconchief July 18 and recounted a recent meeting with President Mugabe. According to Manhanga, Mugabe is preparing for elections next year and is confident he will win. He is dismissive of the SADC talks and will push for adoption of Constitutional Amendment 18 to pave the way for succession after his election. Manhanga also spoke on July 17 with Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono, a chief advisor to Mugabe on economic matters. Gono told Manhanga he went over the dire economic situation in detail with Mugabe and counseled that the current price control regime was leading to unacceptable shortages of food. Mugabe listened to Gono but gave no indication of changing course. Turning to Archbishop Pius Ncube, Manhanga opined that although Ncube was set up, the charges were undoubtedly true and would do considerable harm to the opposition. End Summary. -------------- Meeting with Mugabe -------------- ¶2. (C) Manhanga and Bishop Sebastian Bakare of Mutare met about two weeks ago with Mugabe. Also present was Minister of Justice Patrick Chinimasa. Manhanga said he sought the meeting to discuss the situation in Zimbabwe and Mugabe's future, including plans for retirement. He told us he emphasized to Mugabe the urgency of dealing with the Zimbabwean crisis and that a resolution was dependent upon Mugabe's retirement and plan for succession. ¶3. (C) According to Manhanga, Mugabe was noncommittal, but left the clear impression he intended to run for election and, after being reelected, to then deal with the succession issue. Mugabe complained that his cabinet was the worst ever and was constantly speaking out without coordinating with him. Manhanga thought that Mugabe was content to permit this as well as intraparty squabbling in advance of the elections as long as no coherent opposition to him developed. ¶4. (C) On the issue of the Mbeki-led SADC talks, Chinimasa, who is one of the ZANU-PF negotiators, was dismissive stating there was nothing to discuss. Manhanga told us he thought the recent failure of Chinimasa and Nicholas Goche to travel to South Africa two weeks ago for scheduled talks was typical of ZANU-PF when it did not want to deal seriously with issues. He felt that unless SADC as a whole mandated Mbeki to get tough, Mbeki would continue with his "quiet diplomacy." ¶5. (C) Manhanga told us that in 2005 he had traveled to the U.S. and met with, among others, the members of the Congressional Black Caucus and staff, Jessie Jackson, and Andrew Young and discussed a visit of African-Americans to Zimbabwe to exchange views. He said he mentioned this to Mugabe who was receptive to the idea. ¶6. (C) Manhanga, who sees Mugabe from time to time, found him alert and aware of the situation in the country. -------------- Price Controls -------------- HARARE 00000656 002 OF 003 ¶7. (C) In a July 17 meeting, Gono told Manhanga he had recently met with Mugabe and had explained in detail that the current price controls would not work and would lead to shortages. As an example, he told Mugabe that the military was already suffering from a shortage of food. ¶8. (C) Gono, according to Manhanga, understood that merchants could not sell at a loss. His immediate prescription was to return to the "social contract" to bring government, labor, and business together to discuss a resolution of the problems created by the price controls. (Note: In early June, the GOZ touted the signing of a social contract under which the government allegedly promised to foster economic growth, labor promised to rein in wage demands, and business agreed to control prices. Needless to say, the agreement did not address fundamental economic problems and did not work--within a week inflation had once again taken off. End Note.) ¶9. (C) Manhanga told us, as we have heard elsewhere, that the decision to impose price controls was made by the Joint Operations Command (JOC) comprised of the heads of the military, Central Intelligence Organization (CIO),police, and Minister for State Security Didymus Mutasa. Manhanga said that Mugabe continued to take advice from the JOC; he remained close, however, to Gono and listened to his economic advice. A decision to seek a way out of the current mess, according to Manhanga, may depend on how convincing Gono is. ¶10. (C) For his part, Manhanga said he had been in contact with a number of business concerns, including the Congress of Zimbabwean Industry (CZI),TA Holdings, the Rainbow Group, Econet, and Stanbic; and he was seeking a meeting for them with Mugabe to give the president a reality check. -------------- On Archbishop Ncube -------------- ¶11. (C) Manhanga thought the recent adultery allegations against Ncube were true. It was obviously a set up and showed what the government would do to silence critics. Ncube also said the GOZ is holding evidence against two other Catholic bishops. This will be a severe blow, Manhanga added, to the Catholic Church and to the Save Zimbabwe Coalition of which Ncube was a prominent member. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Manhanga considers himself a bridge builder. His infrequent criticisms of the government have been muted; this has permitted him to retain a relationship with Mugabe, although many in the opposition consider him a government collaborator. His inside the regime view tracks with what others have told us and with what we have observed: Mugabe intends to run for reelection and expects to win after which he will deal with succession. The Mbeki talks are a sideshow he does not take seriously. Finally, Gono has the president's ear and is the most important voice against price controls and the havoc they are raising within ZANU-PF. We note, however, that others in ZANU-PF appear unwilling to take on Mugabe's destructive populist policies and a change of course does not appear on the horizon. Evidence of this HARARE 00000656 003 OF 003 is the recent imposition of import controls on staples and fuel which will exacerbate the scarcity of food (Septel). DHANANI