CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 18 - ANOTHER GOVERNANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000552

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN
TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND T.RAND
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC SADC KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 18 - ANOTHER GOVERNANCE
SETBACK

REF: A. PRETORIA 2209

B. HARARE 205

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) Parliament is due to debate the proposed
Constitutional Amendment 18 when it re-opens in late July.
The Amendment Bill has provisions for holding simultaneous
presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2008; it
strengthens the Executive's control over Parliament by
substantially increasing the number of seats in Parliament as
well as the number of representatives appointed by the
Executive rather than elected; it expands the opportunity for
gerrymandering; and it proposes a toothless new Human Rights
Commission made up of Executive nominees. The Amendment is a
major setback to the Parliamentary reform agenda and it opens
up a new source of patronage to soothe frustrations and
create positions for ZANU-PF cronies. Its passage would
ensure/protect Mugabe,s future while also further sapping
the beleaguered treasury. However, we understand that the
GOZ indicated at the GOZ/MDC talks in Pretoria that it would
not push Constitutional Amendment 18 forward (ref A) and that
it has instructed the Commission that determines/gerrymanders
constituencies to stop its work. End Summary.

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Key Changes and Window Dressing
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2. (U) Key changes proposed by Constitution of Zimbabwe
Amendment (No. 18) Bill, which was gazetted on June 8 and is
due to be presented to Parliament in late July, are:

-- Shortening of the term of office of the President from 6
to 5 years (N.B. President Mugabe would complete his 6-year
term in 2008; the present parliamentary term, begun in 2005,
would be cut back by two years to coincide with the 2008
presidential election. Both terms would then be on a 5-year
cycle.);
-- In the event that a President resigns, dies or is removed
from office, election of a successor to complete the term of
office by an electoral college consisting of the Senate and
House of Assembly sitting jointly;
-- Increase in the size of the Senate from 66 to 84 members;
-- Increase in the size of the House of Assembly from 150 to
210 members;
-- Allowing a constituency to be delineated with up to 25
percent more or fewer registered voters than the average.

Several further proposed changes fall in the category of
window dressing, including:

-- Establishment of a Human Rights Commission
-- Making the House of Assembly alone responsible for voting
on motions of no confidence in the Government and resolutions

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for the confirmation of extension of states of public
emergency.

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A Stacked Parliament; "Urban" Chiefs; Gerrymandering
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3. (C) John Makamure, the director of the USG-funded
parliamentary support project implemented by the State
University of New York (SUNY),and his associate Israel
Chilimanzi pointed out to econoff on June 18 that the
Amendment substantially expanded the Executive's influence
over the composition of the Senate and Parliament by
providing for the appointment - not election - of 34 out of
84 (40 percent) of the Senators. The number of Senators
elected by voters would remain at 50 but be supplemented by
the governors of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces and an additional 8
Chiefs beyond the present 16; two of the new eight would
represent "metropolitan provinces." In the House of
Assembly, 200 out of 210 members would be elected. (Comment:
Padding the Senate with Mugabe cronies also dilutes the
strength of the Mujuru faction in Parliament which is
concentrated in the lower House. End Comment)


4. (C) Makamure commented that appointing two Chiefs to
represent urban areas departed markedly from cultural norms
by imposing the rural tradition of chieftainship on an urban
population of different totems. It effectively created a
ZANU-PF counterweight to the MDC's strength in Harare and
Bulawayo. He added that by allowing the Delimitation
Commission, whose members are appointed by Mugabe and which
determines district boundaries, to diverge 25 percent from
the average constituency size (up from the present 20 percent
limit) it expanded the scope for gerrymandering. The
Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) believes the clause
is intended to allow the redrawing of urban constituencies in
Harare and Bulawayo to incorporate adjacent rural areas.


5. (C) Since Mugabe's successor would be determined by an
electoral college consisting of both Houses of Parliament in
the event of Mugabe's resignation or his removal from office
) an undemocratic proposal in itself - the new composition
would ensure that Parliament elected a successor in Mugabe's
best interest and one that would protect him in retirement,
as well. However, although the Amendment provides a
mechanism to allow him to step down gracefully some time
after the March 2008 elections, assuming he won, the two
parliamentary experts did not believe Mugabe would go that
route. On the contrary, he would cling to power
indefinitely. They regarded the electoral college clause in
the Amendment as "a decoy" to get people's votes.

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Major Setback to Parliamentary Reforms
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6. (C) Chilimanzi doubted that a new Parliament, "stuffed"
by ZANU-PF loyalists, would maintain the momentum of seven
years of parliamentary reform efforts that the SUNY program

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had undertaken to make the Executive accountable (Ref B). He
anticipated that the large influx of new MPs would erode the
gains of the portfolio committee system, which encouraged
specialization and expertise. In his view, it was likely
that the opposition party would lose the chairmanship of
three or four committees and that the chairpersons would be
replaced by "non performers." Worse yet, he anticipated that
most of the new group of MPs would be resistant to change.
In his view, the Amendment opened up a new source of
patronage by creating positions for cronies and soothing
frustrations within the party.

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Toothless New Human Rights Commission
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7. (SBU) Makamure was scornful of the proposed 9-member Human
Rights Commission. Under Amendment 18, the President would
appoint the Chairman of the Commission. The eight other
members would be appointed by the President from a list of 16
nominees submitted to the Committee on Standing Rules and
Order (SROC) - the supreme decision-making organ of
Parliament. Dominated by ZANU-PF and the Executive, SROC's
membership includes both Vice Presidents, the Minister of
Justice and the Minister of Finance. Furthermore, the
Commission's role would be limited to carrying out inquiries
and making recommendations without any obligation by the
Executive to abide by its recommendations. Makamure called
the Commission "political window dressing" and a mere
extension of the existing ineffective office of the
Ombudsman.

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Meaningless Vote-of-No-Confidence Clause
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8. (SBU) Amendment 18 gives the House of Assembly alone the
power to declare a state of emergency and vote on motions of
no confidence in the government, whereas the current
Constitution grants the authority jointly to both Houses of
Parliament. Makamure pointed out that although the Amendment
appears to empower the House of Assembly in this regard, in
reality the President still has the power to dissolve
Parliament.

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Neither Space nor Money for New Legislators
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9. (SBU) Office and meeting space in Parliament is at a
premium with infrastructure and support systems barely
upgraded since the institution had 120 members in the early
1980s. Makamure lamented the deterrent effect of the
shortage of space on public access to Parliament and on
stakeholder attendance at committee meetings. Expanding
Parliament to 294 legislators would only exacerbate the
problem.


10. (SBU) He added that the induction and orientation of new

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members required a massive injection of technical and
financial resources that the treasury could ill afford;
Parliament had already overspent by about Z$50 billion its
Z$13 billion budget allocation for 2007. Under the new
Amendment, expenditures on salaries, wages, travel and
accommodation would rise sharply, not to mention the
anticipated huge foreign-exchange capital expenditure on new
vehicles for all legislators. Makamure estimated the vehicle
scheme alone would cost the GOZ US$17.6 million for the new
Parliament, as the soft loan terms in a hyperinflationary
environment left the GOZ footing the bill in reality.

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ZANU-PF MPs "Whipped into Line"
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11. (C) The Amendment appears to have the support of
two-third of the House of Assembly and Senate to ensure its
passage once it comes before Parliament. Chilimanzi told us
he anticipated no dissension among the ZANU-PF legislators,
as they had been "whipped into line."

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Comment
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12. (C) The obvious intention of the bill is to ensure that
Mugabe consolidates his present power and secures his future
safety. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) has
gone so far as to suggest that the bill could be interpreted
to extend Mugabe's term until 2010 and synchronize elections
then, rather than in 2008. However, we understand that the
GOZ indicated at the GOZ/MDC talks in Pretoria that it would
not push Constitutional Amendment 18 forward (ref A).
Furthermore, MDC MP Trudy Stevenson told the Ambassador on
June 21 that the Delimitation Commission that
determines/gerrymanders constituencies had been instructed to
stop its work. Whether the GOZ makes good on these promises
and takes further positive steps will be a test of its
seriousness in the GOZ/MDC talks.
DELL