MUJURU LIEUTENANT PITCHES FOR USG SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000485 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ASEC ZI SUBJECT: MUJURU LIEUTENANT PITCHES FOR USG SUPPORT REF: A. REF A: HARARE 448 ¶B. REF B: HARARE 336 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) David Butau, ZANU-PF MP and member of the faction allied to ex-military commander Solomon Mujuru, told poloff on May 31 that Mujuru had determined that the time to unseat President Robert Mugabe was now. Mujuru had flexed his muscle and wrested control of the party structures in Masvingo and Bulawayo, and his subordinates had begun to chip away at Mugabe's key backers. Butau added that while pressure on Mugabe was needed, the USG needed to quietly weigh into this intra-party battle to help block Mugabe's bid for another term. End Summary. -------------- Mujuru Faction Assesses Time Is Now -------------- ¶2. (C) Ruling-party MP David Butau told poloff on May 31 that Mujuru had determined that he needed to act decisively within the next four to five months to unseat Mugabe. If the Mujuru camp was not able to force Mugabe out by the time of the Extra-ordinary Congress expected in December (ref A),it would be too late and Mugabe would by then solidify his candidature and with it the presidency. Butau ) who is from the same Shona ethnic sub-group as Vice President Joyce Mujuru and reportedly employs one of the Mujuru daughters at his investment company, Dande - noted that the Mujuru faction had scored important victories in provincial party elections in Masvingo and Bulawayo, adding to Mujuru's current support in the three Mashonaland provinces. ¶3. (C) Adding to this sense of urgency, Butau outlined three possible scenarios for the near term: 1) continued Mugabe rule and economic decline that would be unsustainable; 2) a reformed (read Mujuru-led) ZANU-PF coming to office that would restore economic stability; or 3) a stalemate leading to confrontation that would quickly entangle the military/security forces and pit the Shona ethnic sub-groups against each other. Butau contended that ZANU-PF was headed for a train wreck, with one faction led by Mugabe determined to stay in power at any cost and another faction led by Mujuru desperate to save its business interests. Unless Mujuru was able to gain the upper hand soon, Butau said that the factional battles could spiral out of control. Asked about the camp led by Rural Housing Minister and former heir apparent Emmerson Mnangagwa, Butau said they were still licking their wounds from a strong rebuke from Mugabe in late 2004 and had contented themselves with allying ) at least temporarily ) with Mugabe in the hope that he would once again turn his favor in their direction. -------------- Fierce Battles Ongoing -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite attempts by the Mugabe faction to undermine its intra-party opponents, Butau said the reformist element of ZANU-PF was alive and well. Butau contended that the GOZ decision to sever ties with a USG-funded parliamentary support project (ref B) was ultimately an attempt to weaken critical ZANU-PF MPs, such as himself, Walter Mzembi, and Leo HARARE 00000485 002 OF 002 Mugabe - whom Butau added was out of favor with the President. ¶5. (C) Instead of targeting Mugabe directly, Butau said the Mujuru faction had decided to undermine his supporters, chiefly Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, ZANU-PF Commissar Elliot Manyika, Security Minister Didymus Mutasa, and Deputy Youth Minister Saviour Kasukuwere. Noting that the on-going economic crisis was crippling the pocketbooks of ruling party insiders, Butau contended that the only way to confront Mugabe's inner circle was on economic issues. To that end, Butau ) who also chairs Parliament's Budget Committee ) noted that his Committee had recently taken Gono to task on his failure to stabilize the economy. Specifically, the faction wants to link its intra-party opponents to high-level corruption, which they could then take to the military and the party to convince those structures to rebuke Mugabe. While Mujuru retained broad support within the military, Butau stated that the military's professionalism ) which he ascribed to Mujuru's leadership ) prevented them from intervening without compelling reason. -------------- Asks US Support For Reformists -------------- ¶6. (C) Butau asked poloff that the USG quietly support the reformist element of ZANU-PF in this battle. While it was important to maintain the heat on Mugabe and his circle, Butau said US policy also had to cultivate contacts with Mugabe's intra-party opponents, and not just those outside the party. Poloff acknowledged that ZANU-PF was not monolithic and noted that we continually sought more contact with reform-minded ruling party members. Asked for specific recommendations on how the USG should proceed, Butau was initially at a loss but finally suggested that firm promises of international financial support would help the Mujuru faction erode Mugabe's support and ultimately usher in a reformist government. Poloff replied that international financial assistance was predicated on the GOZ undertaking reforms, not the other way around. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Poloff's meeting with Butau, which the MP scheduled only hours before, smacked of desperation. The Mujuru camp has done everything it could to gain control of the ruling party structures in Masvingo and Bulawayo, while forestalling Mugabe's full endorsement at Central Committee, but the status quo still favors Mugabe. The meeting, which resembled more of a brainstorming session than a formal request for help, demonstrates that the Mujuru camp is running out of ideas and possible options. While Butau's comments regarding Mujuru's commitment to reform were certainly intended to influence, he's right that the next few months will be key. Unless this camp gets a shot in the arm soon, we're likely looking at several more years of Mugabe. DELL