MDC CEDES BY-ELECTION TO ZANU-PF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000418 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: MDC CEDES BY-ELECTION TO ZANU-PF Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The two factions of the MDC have decided not to contest the Zaka East Parliamentary By-election on June 9, virtually ensuring victory for the ZANU-PF candidate, retired Colonel Livingstone Chineka, who is part of the Mujuru faction. Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN) said it plans to test its parallel vote count methodology during the by-election, with an eye toward next year's presidential and parliamentary elections. End Summary. -------------- MDC Bows Out -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Both factions of the opposition MDC decided against contesting the Zaka East Parliamentary By-election on June 9, almost certainly securing victory for the ruling ZANU-PF party candidate, retired army colonel Livingstone Chineka. The MDC factions said their decision was the result of financial constraints and the fact that the incumbent would face fresh Parliamentary elections at the start of next year. ZANU-PF was the only major party to put forward a candidate at the nomination court for the election to replace Deputy Minister of Mining Tinos Rusere, who died of kidney failure on March 1. Candidates from the minor United People's Party and the Zimbabwe People's Democratic Party will run on June 9. ¶3. (SBU) Denford Beremauro, a program manager for local election observation group ZESN, told poloff on May 14 that Chineka was deeply unpopular in the constituency and secured the ruling party's nomination only after provincial leaders forced a front-running businessman out of the primary. Regardless, Beremauro assessed that Chineka would sail to victory easily against his little-known contenders. Beremauro added that Chineka retired from the army on May 9 in line with Parliament prohibitions against active duty officers, and related that within Zaka East Chineka was widely perceived as a member of Solomon Mujuru's camp. -------------- Election Observers Further Refine Methods -------------- ¶4. (SBU) While the outcome was not in doubt, Beremauro said that ZESN planned to use the election as another opportunity to further refine its observation and parallel vote counting techniques with an eye toward next year's presidential and parliamentary elections. ZESN planned to field about 35 observers, using a mix of mobile and static observers, to cover the 61 polling stations in Zaka East. ¶5. (SBU) Beremauro said ZESN was also conducting voter education workshops in the constituency and had found a high degree of interest in the election, especially from youths. Many workshop participants, however, had expressed concerns that the voter registration period was too short and that traditional leaders had refused to issue youths letters confirming their residency in the constituency ) a requirement for registration. Meanwhile, other workshop participants had expressed concern that the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission would not conduct free and fair elections, and suggested instead that future elections be overseen by the African Union or UN. HARARE 00000418 002 OF 002 -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Since the death of Eddison Zvogbo Sr. in 2004, there has been a ZANU-PF leadership vacuum in Masvingo. The vacuum is being filled by military officers, both active and retired, with ties to Solomon Mujuru. Chineka's likely victory follows that of Colonel Killian Gwanetsa, who won the province's last by-election in February. Moreover, the recently conducted ZANU-PF elections to select the party's new provincial executive council ushered a retired major into the provincial chairmanship. DELL