INSIDE LOOK AT ZANU-PF CENTRAL COMMITTEEQ,S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000274 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S.HILL ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: INSIDE LOOK AT ZANU-PF CENTRAL COMMITTEEQ,S ENDORSEMENT OF MUGABE FOR 2008 REF: HARARE 270 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) According to Embassy contacts, President Robert Mugabe steamrolled the ZANU-PF Central Committee meeting on March 30 and forced himself on the ruling party as its candidate for the presidential election in 2008. However, our sources emphasized that Mugabe's peremptory actions have only glossed over for now the serious rifts within ZANU-PF and that party in-fighting is likely over the next several months that could result in Mugabe stepping down or that could weaken him if he does run. End Summary. -------------- Central Committee Meeting a Formality -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Embassy sources with inside knowledge of Friday's ZANU-PF Central Committee meeting, Minister of Justice Patrick Chinimasa introduced at the beginning of the meeting a proposal for consolidated presidential and parliamentary election in 2008. At that point, Central Committee members, led by the Women's League and Youth League, began chanting and singing for Mugabe to be the presidential candidate. There was no discussion, no tabling of a motion, nor was there a formal vote. The party spokesperson announced after the meeting that the Central Committee had selected Mugabe as its standard bearer. ¶3. (C) Our sources told us that Mugabe and his inner circle were well-prepared. As they had two days early at the ZANU-PF Politburo meeting, they rammed through a pre-determined agenda by assuring the presence and preparation of their core supportersQ*the Youth and WomenQ,s Leagues. Also of particularl importance was the overt support of Emmerson Mnangagwa. With his faction holding the line, opposition by Solomon Mujuru and his faction would have been futile. However, the Central Committee action, our sources emphasized, only glossed over for the moment the deep fissures that remain within ZANU-PF, and opposition to Mugabe is likely to continue within the party. -------------- Central Committee Decisions -------------- ¶4. (C) The Central Committee considered several other matters: --A constitutional amendment was approved to shorten the term of the president by one year-to five years-to make it coterminous with the terms of parliamentarians. --In the event of the president's death or incapacitation, a successor would be chosen by parliament. --The Committee agreed to increase the size of the lower house from 150 to 210 and the size of the Senate from 66 to ¶84. (Comment: This was obviously designed to increase MugabeQ,s patronage as he jockeys to increase his support within the party. End Comment). --Parliamentarians argued that sitting members should not have to contest their seats in primaries; this issue was deferred. HARARE 00000274 002 OF 002 --The Committee approved the holding of local elections three months before the presidential and parliamentary elections. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Over the past week, Mugabe has unquestionably once again demonstrated his immense political skills and in typical fashion seized back the initiative with several bold strokes that left everyone else outmaneuvered. He successfully spun the SADC Summit to his advantage publicly, forcing the other leaders to either contradict him in public or go along with his version of the meeting. He played the Central Committee like a virtuoso, dividing his rivals and orchestrating the outcome he wanted. Mugabe has enhanced his position vis-Q-vis his ZANU-PF rivals, especially the Mujurus. ¶6. (C) That said, nothing has really changed with respect to his regime's growing weakness with the economy and the succession issue looming in the background. We would agree therefore that the intra-party in-fighting is likely to continue and that should Mugabe actually run in 2008 he may have a divided and badly weakened party behind him. Moreover, with Mugable clearly able to manipulate the party at will, his rivals may begin to look for other ways to challenge him. ¶7. (C) All the more important then, we would argue, that Tsvangirai and the MDC contest the elections regardless of SIPDIS whether there is a new constitution. Yes, ZANU-PF will cheat, but a reinvigorated MDC could still win against a divided ZANU-PF, hamstrung by its abysmal economic performance. Mugabe's weekend shenanigans have had at least one positive effect: the path to elections next March as well as the opponent are clear now, and both we and the opposition need to now prepare ourselves as well as possible. End Comment. DELL