ZANU-PF FLEXES MUSCLES IN UPCOMING BY-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000115 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SUBJECT: ZANU-PF FLEXES MUSCLES IN UPCOMING BY-ELECTION Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.5 b/d ¶1. (SBU) Summary. ZANU-PF is expected to win the February 17 Chiredzi South by-election, also being contested by candidates from both MDC factions and the United People's Party (UPP),a ZANU-PF off-shoot. The MDC and UPP candidates are from the area and belong to its dominant Shangaan ethnic group; the ZANU-PF candidate is from the Kaanga ethnic group and from outside of Chiredzi. ZANU-PF's muscle, including party structures, inimidation from the national council of chiefs, pessure from local chiefs, and manipulation of food aid, is likely to trump voters' ethnic loyalties,antipathy toward an &outside8 candidate, and lac of support for the present government, and to rsult in a ZANU-PF victory. The ZANU-PF candidate, a newly retired army colonel, was selected by ZANU-PF faction leader Emmerson Mnangagwa, and his victory would bolster Mnangagwa's power base in Masvingo Province and Mnangagwa's standing with the military. End Summary. -------------- Chiredzi South: A ZANU-PF Stronghold -------------- ¶2. (U) A parliamentary by-election for the Chiredzi South constituency in Masvingo Province is scheduled for Saturday, February 17. The seat was vacated with the death of the ZANU-PF MP Aaron Baloyi in September 2006. Masvingo is a traditional ruling party stronghold; Baloyi easily won the Chiredzi South seat in March 2005 with 14,165 votes over the 6,170 votes received by MDC candidate Immaculate Makondo and the 778 votes received by independent candidate Nehemiah Zanamwe. ¶3. (C) Chiredzi South is dominated by the Shangaan ethnic tribe, and the late ZANU-PF MP was Shangaan. According to Giles Mutsekwa, MDC national security director and an ex-Army major who maintains ties with the military, Mnangagwa, from neighboring Midlands Province, instigated the current ZANU-PF candidacy of Kilian Gwanesta, a Karanga and ex-army officer. Mutsekwa told us that Mnangagwa, who is also a Karanga, was seeking to increase his support within the military and his influence in Masvingo Province. -------------- -------------- The Primaries: Outsider Steamrolls Local Favorite -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) In the January ZANU-PF primary run-off election in Chiredzi South, Gwanetsa, who is not from Chiredzi, defeated local favorite Ben Baloyi, a Shangaan. (Ben Baloyi is no relation to the late MP Aaron Baloyi). Gwanetsa enjoyed support from Mnangagwa and other ruling party bigwigs. Also, according to the Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN), he had military backing, including the use of military vehicles and military campaign workers. -------------- The General Election: ZANU Win Expected -------------- ¶5. (U) In the general election, Gwanesta faces three opposition candidates from the Shangaan tribe. Makondo and Zanamwe, both defeated by Aaron Baloyi in the March 2005 general elections, are contesting for the seat again. This time, Makondo, who ran as the MDC candidate in 2005, is the anti-Senate MDC candidate and Zanamwe, who ran as an HARARE 00000115 002 OF 002 independent in 2005, is the pro-Senate MDC candidate. Savious Chauke is running as the UPP candidate. ¶6. (SBU) Ruling party elite and the military have been hitting the campaign trail for Gwanesta. Politburo members retired General Vitalis Zvinanashe and Dzikami Mavhaire spoke at ZANU-PF campaign rallies insisting that failure to support Gwanesta would be tantamount to "cursing" those who fought and died for independence. According to ZESN, Gwanesta continues to have military support as he campaigns, sometimes in military vehicles with civilian license plates. Also, according to ZESN, President of the Council of Chiefs Fortune Charumbira has ordered local chiefs to pressure voters to support Gwanesta or face restrictions on the distribution of food aid. Relatedly, MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa told us army personnel had been seen distributing food at Gwanesta's recent campaign rallies. (Comment: Food security in the area is a critical issue due to lack of rains and the local population is particularly susceptible to such pressure. End Comment.) -------------- The Opposition Remains Divided -------------- ¶7. (C) Both anti-Senate faction spokesman Chamisa and pro-Senate faction leader Arthur Mutambara acknowledged to us the lack of cooperation between the two MDC factions resulted in both fielding candidates. Both men hoped for reunification, or at least implementation of the Code of Conduct between the two factions, to prevent this situation occurring in the future. For now, both Chamisa and Mutambara said they expect to lose due to ZANU-PF pressures on voters and manipulation of food aid, but noted the MDC was using the election to build party structures in the constituency. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Chiredzi South by-election demonstrates that ZANU-PF's time-worn strategy of intimidation and manipulation of food aid is alive and well--and once again expected to be successful in this rural constituency. It also demonstrates that free and fair elections depend not only on the absence of intimidation and violence on election day, but in ensuring fair campaigning in the run-up to the election. ¶9. (SBU) Also disturbingly, the military, which has insinuated itself into many Zimbabwean institutions, is playing a direct role in the election. Not only is the ZANU-PF candidate ex-military, but the military has lent equipment and personnel, apparently at Mnangagwa's instigation, to support the cause. DELL