TRIET'S PRC VISIT: ACCENTUATING THE POSITIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001055 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV VM CH SUBJECT: TRIET'S PRC VISIT: ACCENTUATING THE POSITIVE REF: A. BEIJING 3546 ¶B. HANOI 961 HANOI 00001055 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POL/C Marc Knapper per 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) MFA and Chinese Embassy sources are billing President Triet's May 14-18 trip to China a success, both in maintaining the momentum of improved political relations between the two countries and in generating concrete results, particularly in the areas of trade and investment (Ref A). At the same time, thorny issues in the bilateral relationship, such as Vietnam's trade deficit with the PRC, rival territorial claims in the South China Sea and negative commentary on China in Vietnam's media indicate that, while the two sides continue to accentuate the positive, frictions remain that defy near-term solutions. For GVN policymakers, maintaining a balance between seeking stable ties with the PRC and defending Vietnam's national interests will remain a key challenge. End summary. Visit Diplomacy Cornerstone of Bilateral Ties -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Chinese Embassy Political Counselor Zhou Tong, the Vietnamese president's Beijing visit was a "key event for China-Vietnam relations in 2007." The overall positive development of Vietnam-China relations, together with increased mutual trust in the political sphere, are reflected in this "tradition" of annual exchanges of high-level visits. In this case, Triet's trip is a "reciprocal visit" following President Hu Jintao's 2005 and 2006 visits to Vietnam. MFA Asia I (Northeast Asia) Department Deputy Director Nguyen Hung Hai also stressed the importance of these frequent meetings between Vietnam's and China's leaders, citing their contribution to the bolstering of mutual understanding. Main Accomplishments -------------- ¶3. (C) In addition to strengthening political ties, Zhou highlighted heightened economic cooperation and the new target of USD 15 billion in trade by 2010 as major results of the visit. The value of commercial agreements signed at business forums held during the visit reached USD 2.6 billion. Furthermore, according to Zhou, the visit reflected an enhanced role for the China-Vietnam Steering Committee for Bilateral Cooperation. This committee, co-chaired by Tang Jiaxuan and Vietnamese DPM/FM Pham Gia Khiem, is responsible �A;for coordinating the two countries' activities in foreign affairs, defense, culture, economics and trade. The leaders also agreed to increase the number of Communist Party and youth exchanges and to conduct seminars on ideology. Two Corridors, One Belt -------------- ¶4. (C) The "two corridors, one belt" project is a Vietnamese initiative to modernize transportation routes leading from southern China to Haiphong port. It was proposed by former Prime Minister Phan Van Khai in 2004, but took on new life when Nguyen Tan Dzung became Prime Minister last year. The project involves modernizing colonial-era roads and railways leading from the border crossings with China near Lao Cai and Lang Son down to Haiphong. According to the MFA's Hai, Chinese officials were very positive about the project and will send a group of engineers to make a survey of possible routes. Zhou noted that the two sides have not specifically identified where they will work together. The infrastructure on the Chinese side is adequate, but improving the railways from the border to Hanoi would be the first step. Both sides agreed that transportation and other infrastructure projects are key, after which they can move ahead to identify other projects. Addressing the Trade Imbalance -------------- ¶5. (C) During their discussions, the Chinese acknowledged Vietnam's "huge" deficit in their bilateral trade, Zhou noted, and the two sides agreed to take steps to "adjust this." China specifically asked Vietnam to increase its exports of oil, rubber and other raw materials. Zhou HANOI 00001055 002.2 OF 002 reported that the Vietnamese took note of the suggestion and will study it as a way of increasing exports. The Chinese side also made the point that the trade imbalance is not created by the government: both countries' economies are "governed by the market" because both have "market economies," Zhou averred. In addition, the Vietnamese and Chinese leaders discussed measures that would encourage a greater trade volume, such as channeling more trade through large companies, and discourage the smuggling of small quantities of goods across the border. Hai noted that Chinese Premier Wen said China is concerned about the imbalance and is willing to import more Vietnamese goods and commodities, such as sea and agricultural products and, "of course, coal, oil, rubber and minerals." That said, Hai shared his view that Vietnam will not be able to resolve its trade deficit because of China's size, competitiveness and reliance on exports. Taiwan and South China Sea Issues -------------- ¶6. (C) As a matter of course, China's leaders always raise Taiwan "with every country, at every meeting," said Zhou. President Triet expressed Vietnam's continued support for its "one China policy." In previous years, this was always mentioned in the joint statements following high-level meetings, but its omission this time did not indicate a policy change, Zhou said. According to Hai, China reminded Vietnam that, until Taiwanese elections are held in 2008, there will be "agitation for independence by Taiwan's leaders," and Vietnam should not play into this by conducting government-to-government relations with Taiwan, only economic and cultural relations. ¶7. (C) The two sides' competing territorial claims in the South China Sea were only discussed in general terms. Hai noted that the details of such issues are "left to be worked out at lower-level negotiations." The two sides agreed to continue to negotiate and maintain peace and the status quo. Zhou mentioned that they also agreed to "try to respect" the spirit of the ASEAN Declaration of Conduct concerning the South China Sea, and to "increase their cooperation" in the area with the Philippines. (Note: This is a possible reference to Vietnam's joining the PRC and the Philippines in joint oil exploration in disputed waters, a move that the GVN had previously rejected as diluting its own territorial claim. End Note.) Public Diplomacy to Highlight Friendly Relations -------------- --- ¶8. (C) The two countries also agreed to use public diplomacy to publicize their friendly relations. Their "traditional friendship" is a valuable asset in the relationship, and both countries need to maintain and appreciate it. Zhou referred to "elements" in Vietnam who use the press, magazines and internet to negatively portray Vietnam-China relations, harkening back to the "difficult period" between the two countries during the late 70s and 80s. While the PRC recognizes that such media coverage is "not the GVN's official position, it nonetheless affects bilateral relations," noted Zhou. The public diplomacy efforts agreed to by the two countries will be implemented by state-controlled mass media outlets, the propaganda committees of their respective Communist Parties and publishing houses. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) While warming political relations and expanding trade and investment ties are the heavily publicized features of high-level visits and, more broadly, the Vietnam-China relationship, territorial disputes and vestiges of historical animosity remain thorny problems that defy near-term solutions. For example, the GVN is well aware of recent Chinese efforts to undercut Vietnamese petroleum deals in disputed South China Sea waters, and VFM Le Van Bang reported to visiting EAP A/S Hill that the GVN has assured its partners that "we will protect them" (Ref B). As this illustrates, maintaining a balance between seeking stable ties with the PRC and defending Vietnam's national interests will remain a key challenge for GVN policymakers. End Comment. MARINE