LITTLE SUSPENSE IN THE DYING DAYS OF THE

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000081 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR WHA/CAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CA SUBJECT: LITTLE SUSPENSE IN THE DYING DAYS OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND-LABRADOR PROVINCIAL ELECTION REF: HALIFAX 0077 ¶1. SUMMARY: In a campaign that has seen no direct U.S. interests emerge, Newfoundland-Labrador Premier Danny Williams appears to have sewn up solid support going into the October 9 provincial election. Given that election-watchers believe there will be no stopping Williams and his Tory party, the consensus is the opposition forces will do well just to hold on to their slight representation in the legislature. END SUMMARY ¶2. Despite the best efforts of his opposition foes, Tory Premier Danny Williams appears destined to roll to an easy victory in the October 9 Newfoundland-Labrador provincial election (Reftel). Williams, who entered the contest with a 75-plus percent approval rating from the electorate, has been focusing his re-election campaign on his government's record since he scored an upset victory over the previous incumbent Liberal government in the 2003 provincial election. High on his achievement list is the Premier's boast that the province has seen a momentous turnaround in its economy. This, according to Williams, has not only seen a corresponding improvement in the province's fiscal health, but has brought new prosperity and inspired a new sense of pride and can-do attitude across the province. ¶3. The foundation for the Premier's successful campaign to date is his commitment to continue the fight to see his province gain all it can through development of its rich resources, particularly from offshore oil and gas projects. While the Premier's get-tough approach has brought unprecedented benefits to the province, his stance has caused much angst among the large international oil companies, particularly U.S. energy giants such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron. But as the pundits note, the bottom line is that these polices have resonated very well with the electorate and the voters seem more than willing to give the Premier a resounding vote of confidence on election day. ¶4. Given that background, election-watchers are united in their predictions that the Opposition Liberals and the third-place NDP will do well just to hold on to their seats. At the time of the election call, the Liberals held only 11 of the 48 seats; the New Democratic Party had one, leaving the governing Tories with the remainder, minus two vacancies. Liberal leader Gerry Reid acknowledged early on that there is little he could do to counter the premier's strong record. Instead, he has accusated the Tories of not ensuring that all areas of the province have shared equally in the province's various resource windfalls. ¶5. Likewise, the NDP, led by rookie leader Lorraine Michael, has zeroed in on this inequality theme, but Michael has also been accusing the Williams government of neglecting health care and services for seniors and failing to address rural poverty. Interestingly, while Michael is the lone NDP member in the legislature, pundits and the premier himself, give her high marks for effectiveness and political acumen, which they contend distinguish her from Reid, who is often accused of being too aggressive and bellicose. The problem for the NDP is cashing in on Michael's image and translating it into new seats. Because of its relative weakness, the party has always been in third-place and this time out, only had the resources to run candidates in 34 of the 48 districts. ¶5. COMMENT: In an election campaign with no apparent direct U.S. interests, our contacts tell us the excitement among election-watchers is not over whether Williams will be victorious, but rather what his margin of victory will be. Barring any last-minute fumbles, we can find no one who believes that Premier Williams and his Tories won't be right back to work on October 10, laying the groundwork for mandate number-two. END COMMENT FOSTER