GUATEMALA LAUNCHES 2007 ELECTORAL SEASON

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000858

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI KDEM PHUM EAID SNAR GT
SUBJECT: GUATEMALA LAUNCHES 2007 ELECTORAL SEASON

REF: GUATEMALA 740 AND PREVIOUS


1. Summary: Guatemala's 2007 electoral season officially
opened on May 2, leaving four months of campaigning until
general elections on September 9. A second round, if
necessary, to elect the president is scheduled for November

4. Approximately 5.7 million citizens are registered to vote
for more than 3,720 public offices at the national and local
levels. End summary.


2. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) officially opened
the 2007 electoral season on May 2 for national and local
elections scheduled for September 9. TSE president Oscar
Bolanos led the opening ceremony, which was attended by
presidential pre-candidates, political leaders, local
authorities, representatives of the international community,
and members of organizations that will monitor the electoral
process. Bolanos said that the TSE will ensure free and
transparent elections and promote participation of women and
youth. Pointing out that the rules are clear, he urged all
candidates to commit themselves to running clean campaigns.



3. At stake are more than 3,720 public seats, including the
office of president and vice president, 158 congressional
seats, 20 seats in the Central American Parliament (plus
their alternates),332 mayors, and 3,190 city council members
in 332 municipalities. Over two-thirds of the deputies in
Congress are running for re-election. A dozen of the 19
registered parties have confirmed their presidential
candidates and running mates. A run-off for president will
take place November 4 if no candidate wins a majority of the
votes during the first round.


4. The TSE estimates the elections will cost Q409 million
(approx. USD 54 million) and involve approximately 250,000
persons, including TSE magistrates, collaborators, 120,000
national and international observers (including 150 observers
from the Organization of American States),support personnel,
security, logistics and communications. In compliance with
the electoral law, which mandates the collaboration of
government security forces and public servants in the
electoral process, the PNC will deploy 19,000 agents to
provide elections security, with the assistance of 13,000
military personnel, and has identified areas for heightened
vigilance to prevent elections-related violence. In 284
municipalities, police patrols will secure the movements of
TSE delegates and the transport of ballots. In high-crime

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regions such as Jutiapa and certain municipalities close to
the capital, such as Villa Nueva, the PNC plans to reinforce
security with special forces.


5. A process is underway to decentralize the voting process
for the first time since the 2004 reform of the electoral
law, with the installation of 687 new voting centers (for a
total of 15,000 voting booths nationwide) in 248
municipalities, to encourage greater participation in the
political process. The Executive Branch, international
observers, and magistrates of electoral tribunals in Latin
America have expressed concern over the enormous logistical
challenges in accessing the rural sites and installing the
new centers.


6. With successful decentralization of polling sites, the
TSE hopes for greater voter turnout this year than in past

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elections. Of the 5.1 million people who had registered to
vote in the 2003 general elections, 60 percent voted. As of
March 31, 5.7 million people had registered to vote this
year, including 1.3 million in the 18-25 age bracket, 46
percent women, 54 percent men, 72 percent literate, and 28
percent illiterate. The TSE anticipates that 5.8 million
citizens will register to vote by June 9, the registration
deadline. Among those who have already registered, 558,350
persons need to clarify data or complete their registration,
including 331,641 first-time registered voters who have not
picked up their registration numbers.


7. "Mirador Electoral," a domestic NGO coalition observing
the electoral process, expressed concern over political
violence. A report of the Central American Institute of
Political Studies (INCEP) documented 25 elections-related
murders over the past year, affecting primarily the National
Unity of Hope (UNE) party. The Ministry of Government has
sent a letter to each political party to assess security
needs for rallies and other public campaign events. As in
previous elections, the GOG will not provide security for
candidates until the second round.
Derham