PEREZ MOLINA TAKES THE LEAD IN GUATEMALA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002013 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GT SUBJECT: PEREZ MOLINA TAKES THE LEAD IN GUATEMALA'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REF: GUATEMALA 1941 Classified By: Ambassador James M. Derham for reasons 1.4 (b&d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The latest major poll gives center-right Patriota candidate Perez Molina a nearly nine-point lead over center-left UNE candidate Colom, but the poll likely overstates Perez Molina's support somewhat. Nonetheless, Perez Molina, who finished second in the September 9 first-round election, does now appear to be in the lead. However, his victory is by no means a foregone conclusion. Both campaigns are working to win the support of mayors, members of Congress, and voters whose presidential candidates were eliminated in the first round. End Summary. Poll: Perez Molina in the Lead -------------- ¶2. (C) A new Vox Latina poll published Sept. 30 showed Perez Molina leading Colom with likely voters by 54.4% to 45.6%. UNE Congressional delegation leader and party Secretary General Eduardo Meyer told Pol/Econ Couns that UNE believed the poll had been manipulated to favor Perez Molina. Meyer alleged that billionaire chicken restaurant chain owner Dionisio Gutierrez was using his wealth to sway press and polls in Perez Molina's favor. Meyer acknowledged that Perez Molina had been gaining ground, but UNE internal polls showed Colom still ahead by 3-4 points. UNE had been forewarned of the unfavorable poll, Meyer said, and Colom had summoned the party's leaders to allay doubts about his electoral prospects. Asked about UNE rural mayors' efforts to get out the vote for Colom, Meyer responded that they had been entirely inadequate, and that he has been encouraging his party's mayors to do more in support of the campaign. He rebutted Partido Patriota's public charge that the UNE campaign is financed by narco-traffickers, asserting that his personal efforts to ensure that financing was from licit sources had substantially slowed the ingress of contributions at a critical moment, but that the sacrifice was worthwhile. ¶3. (C) Partido Patriota representatives Valentin Gramajo and Rodrigo Vielmann expressed satisfaction with the latest poll, and were confident of victory. Vielmann said he believed the most recent poll understated Perez Molina's support, and that his real lead was probably closer to 13 points. Gramajo and Vielmann said that Perez Molina and Patriota Deputy Roxanna Baldetti's roadshow to drum up support from mayors whose parties' presidential candidates did not advance to the second round had been largely successful, particularly with GANA mayors. Questioned about Baldetti's assertion that she had "proof" that the UNE campaign is funded by narcotraffickers, Gramajo and Vielmann said they had not seen such proof. They acknowledged that such an accusation goes beyond the bounds of usual campaign rhetoric, and were confident that, if Patriota loses, Baldetti would make her evidence public. Candidates Committed to Free Markets -------------- ¶4. (U) During an October 3 business community event featuring the two candidates, both Colom and Perez Molina reiterated their commitment to protecting private property, support for CAFTA, readiness to continue successful, pro-growth policies of the current government, and commitment to free-market principles. Colom offered specific proposals for infrastructure improvements, while Perez Molina stuck to more general statements of principle. The two are scheduled to debate each other two more times before the election, on October 9 or 10, and on Oct. 19 or 20. Congressional Jockeying -------------- ¶5. (C) The TSE issued final results from the congressional elections. The distribution of congressional seats is as follows: UNE 51, GANA 37, PP 29, FRG 14, PU 7, CASA 5, UCN 5, EG 4, PAN 3, URNG 2, and UD 1. GANA congressional delegation leader Jorge Mendez told Pol/Econ Couns that his delegation would work closely with that of the Partido Patriota. (Note: Former GANA presidential candidate Alejandro Giammattei has made a public display of his affinity for Perez Molina, but has stopped short of formally endorsing him.) FRG delegation leader Aristides Crespo told Pol/Econ Couns that, despite press accounts indicating his delegation would work closely with PP and GANA, this was not the case. The party would respond only to the direction set by former de facto President Efrain Rios Montt. "We remain anti-oligarchy and anti-Communist ... we're not in a strong position, so we can't set our terms, but nonetheless no one can take us for granted," he said. Transition Planning Underway -------------- ¶6. (U) Both the UNE and Partido Patriota continue to send senior representatives to transition planning meetings led by Vice President Stein and international donors (including the Embassy) respectively. UNE and Patriota representatives have highlighted their commitment to continuing national and international programs that are working well, and avoiding the disruption that has in the past been associated with transitions. Press and other observers have given VP Stein and the current GOG high marks for its purposeful approach to the transition. Perez Molina Friend Murdered -------------- ¶7. (U) Although pre-electoral violence has slowed since the first round, on September 28 retired army Colonel Giovanni Pacay was murdered in his office at the private security firm he owned. A police investigation is underway. Pacay was known to be a friend of Perez Molina. Press reported rumors that Pacay had been the author of defamatory e-mail and other campaigns against UNE and Colom. The Patriota campaign denied that Pacay was working with their party, and the speculation surrounding his murder is focusing on his alleged ties to organized crime. TSE Preparing for Second Round SIPDIS -------------- ¶8. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has announced it will begin its public information campaign on October 15 to prepare voters for the second round. It plans to add 70 new tabulation centers to avoid overcrowding, and to rerun local elections at two locations where first-round results were annulled due to irregularities. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) While the latest Vox Latina poll may, like others in the series, have an urban bias and therefore overstate Perez Molina's support, the conventional wisdom is that Perez Molina now leads Colom. However, the ultimate result is by no means a foregone conclusion. As usual, Perez Molina's rhetorical performance at the October 3 ENADE event was strong, but Colom surprised the audience with an excellent speech that was a dramatic improvement over his fumbling performance in the August CNN debate. We are pleased to see that both parties, the GOG, and the donor community are making a concerted effort to ensure an orderly transition to the new government, the inauguration of which is scheduled for January 14. TSE efforts are underway to ensure an orderly second round, which the Embassy and OAS are planning to observe. Lindwall