PEREZ MOLINA TAKES THE LEAD IN GUATEMALA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002013

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GT
SUBJECT: PEREZ MOLINA TAKES THE LEAD IN GUATEMALA'S
PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: GUATEMALA 1941

Classified By: Ambassador James M. Derham for reasons 1.4 (b&d).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) The latest major poll gives center-right Patriota
candidate Perez Molina a nearly nine-point lead over
center-left UNE candidate Colom, but the poll likely
overstates Perez Molina's support somewhat. Nonetheless,
Perez Molina, who finished second in the September 9
first-round election, does now appear to be in the lead.
However, his victory is by no means a foregone conclusion.
Both campaigns are working to win the support of mayors,
members of Congress, and voters whose presidential candidates
were eliminated in the first round. End Summary.

Poll: Perez Molina in the Lead
--------------

2. (C) A new Vox Latina poll published Sept. 30 showed Perez
Molina leading Colom with likely voters by 54.4% to 45.6%.
UNE Congressional delegation leader and party Secretary
General Eduardo Meyer told Pol/Econ Couns that UNE believed
the poll had been manipulated to favor Perez Molina. Meyer
alleged that billionaire chicken restaurant chain owner
Dionisio Gutierrez was using his wealth to sway press and
polls in Perez Molina's favor. Meyer acknowledged that Perez
Molina had been gaining ground, but UNE internal polls showed
Colom still ahead by 3-4 points. UNE had been forewarned of
the unfavorable poll, Meyer said, and Colom had summoned the
party's leaders to allay doubts about his electoral
prospects. Asked about UNE rural mayors' efforts to get out
the vote for Colom, Meyer responded that they had been
entirely inadequate, and that he has been encouraging his
party's mayors to do more in support of the campaign. He
rebutted Partido Patriota's public charge that the UNE
campaign is financed by narco-traffickers, asserting that his
personal efforts to ensure that financing was from licit
sources had substantially slowed the ingress of contributions
at a critical moment, but that the sacrifice was worthwhile.


3. (C) Partido Patriota representatives Valentin Gramajo and
Rodrigo Vielmann expressed satisfaction with the latest poll,
and were confident of victory. Vielmann said he believed the
most recent poll understated Perez Molina's support, and that
his real lead was probably closer to 13 points. Gramajo and
Vielmann said that Perez Molina and Patriota Deputy Roxanna
Baldetti's roadshow to drum up support from mayors whose
parties' presidential candidates did not advance to the
second round had been largely successful, particularly with
GANA mayors. Questioned about Baldetti's assertion that she
had "proof" that the UNE campaign is funded by
narcotraffickers, Gramajo and Vielmann said they had not seen
such proof. They acknowledged that such an accusation goes
beyond the bounds of usual campaign rhetoric, and were
confident that, if Patriota loses, Baldetti would make her
evidence public.

Candidates Committed to Free Markets
--------------

4. (U) During an October 3 business community event
featuring the two candidates, both Colom and Perez Molina
reiterated their commitment to protecting private property,
support for CAFTA, readiness to continue successful,
pro-growth policies of the current government, and commitment
to free-market principles. Colom offered specific proposals
for infrastructure improvements, while Perez Molina stuck to
more general statements of principle. The two are scheduled
to debate each other two more times before the election, on
October 9 or 10, and on Oct. 19 or 20.

Congressional Jockeying
--------------

5. (C) The TSE issued final results from the congressional
elections. The distribution of congressional seats is as
follows: UNE 51, GANA 37, PP 29, FRG 14, PU 7, CASA 5, UCN 5,
EG 4, PAN 3, URNG 2, and UD 1. GANA congressional delegation
leader Jorge Mendez told Pol/Econ Couns that his delegation
would work closely with that of the Partido Patriota. (Note:
Former GANA presidential candidate Alejandro Giammattei has
made a public display of his affinity for Perez Molina, but
has stopped short of formally endorsing him.) FRG delegation
leader Aristides Crespo told Pol/Econ Couns that, despite
press accounts indicating his delegation would work closely
with PP and GANA, this was not the case. The party would
respond only to the direction set by former de facto
President Efrain Rios Montt. "We remain anti-oligarchy and
anti-Communist ... we're not in a strong position, so we
can't set our terms, but nonetheless no one can take us for
granted," he said.

Transition Planning Underway
--------------

6. (U) Both the UNE and Partido Patriota continue to send
senior representatives to transition planning meetings led by
Vice President Stein and international donors (including the
Embassy) respectively. UNE and Patriota representatives have
highlighted their commitment to continuing national and
international programs that are working well, and avoiding
the disruption that has in the past been associated with
transitions. Press and other observers have given VP Stein
and the current GOG high marks for its purposeful approach to
the transition.

Perez Molina Friend Murdered
--------------

7. (U) Although pre-electoral violence has slowed since the
first round, on September 28 retired army Colonel Giovanni
Pacay was murdered in his office at the private security firm
he owned. A police investigation is underway. Pacay was
known to be a friend of Perez Molina. Press reported rumors
that Pacay had been the author of defamatory e-mail and other
campaigns against UNE and Colom. The Patriota campaign
denied that Pacay was working with their party, and the
speculation surrounding his murder is focusing on his alleged
ties to organized crime.

TSE Preparing for Second Round

SIPDIS
--------------

8. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has announced it
will begin its public information campaign on October 15 to
prepare voters for the second round. It plans to add 70 new
tabulation centers to avoid overcrowding, and to rerun local
elections at two locations where first-round results were
annulled due to irregularities.

Comment
--------------

9. (C) While the latest Vox Latina poll may, like others in
the series, have an urban bias and therefore overstate Perez
Molina's support, the conventional wisdom is that Perez
Molina now leads Colom. However, the ultimate result is by
no means a foregone conclusion. As usual, Perez Molina's
rhetorical performance at the October 3 ENADE event was
strong, but Colom surprised the audience with an excellent
speech that was a dramatic improvement over his fumbling
performance in the August CNN debate. We are pleased to see
that both parties, the GOG, and the donor community are
making a concerted effort to ensure an orderly transition to
the new government, the inauguration of which is scheduled
for January 14. TSE efforts are underway to ensure an
orderly second round, which the Embassy and OAS are planning
to observe.
Lindwall