ELECTORAL OUTCOMES: WIN, LOSE, AND DRAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001859 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR CVPR ASEC KDEM GT SUBJECT: ELECTORAL OUTCOMES: WIN, LOSE, AND DRAW REF: GUATEMALA 1806 Classified By: Ambassador James M. Derham for reasons 1.4 (b&d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) As the dust settles from Guatemala's September 9 national elections, clear winners and losers have emerged. For others, the outcome was ambiguous. The greatest success was that of the process itself, which was less violent and better organized than anticipated. Center-left Alvaro Colom of the UNE and center-right candidate Otto Perez Molina now advance to the second-round presidential election Nov. 4. Some believe Perez Molina may now be in the stronger position, although members of his team were disappointed with his second-place finish. Back-bench parties GANA, CASA, and FRG took a greater share of the vote than anticipated, and a majority of their voters may gravitate toward the right. The elections put paid to the domestic political aspirations of Nobel Prize winner Menchu, whose dismal performance substantiated the common observation that she "is more popular in Paris than in Guatemala." The OAS Electoral Observation Mission performed well. End Summary. Elections Winners -------------- ¶2. (U) The TSE and OAS. The greatest success of Guatemala's September 9 elections was the process itself. No observers anticipated that all 13,756 polling stations -- up from 8,885 in the 2003 elections -- would open, yet that is what occurred. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),encouraged by the OAS and others in the international community, accelerated its schedule for delivery of voting materials to stay ahead of Hurricane Felix's winds and rain. With the materials in place, Felix dissipated with little effect; some 58% of voters turned out. Only one person was killed in rioting on election day, and ballots burned at three locations. OAS Mission Head Diego Garcia Sayan asserted to the diplomatic corps that these elections were "90% less violent" than those of 2003. Garcia Sayan directly challenged international assertions that the campaign season had seen a spike in violence by stating that the level of pre-electoral violence was "similar to that which prevailed prior to the start of the campaigns, and was about the same as that which will prevail after Nov. 4." ¶3. (SBU) Despite a few working-level hiccups, the OAS Observer Mission's performance was generally excellent. Communiques issued on election day were concise, accurate, and encouraged calm, as did Garcia Sayan's several public appearances. The OAS' quick count, which it reserved for internal use, was spot-on. OAS observers gave nationwide coverage, and appropriately targeted likely trouble spots. Guatemala's much maligned police force also performed well on election day, defusing tensions and crowds by non-lethal means. ¶4. (C) Colom and the UNE. Center-left candidate Alvaro Colom, of the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party, limped into the first round with an anemic performance in the August 30 CNN debate and a major poll showing him tied with center-right challenger Otto Perez Molina of the Patriot Party (PP). Nonetheless, Colom's stalwart rural base delivered him a nearly five-point lead over the former general. UNE won 30.4% of the seats in Congress, more than any other party, and also won a plurality of mayoral races. ¶5. (SBU) The Back-benchers. Polls predicted that the third-, fourth-, and fifth-place presidential contenders (GANA's Alejandro Giammattei with 17.2%, CASA's Eduardo Suger with 7.5%, and FRG's Luis Rabbe with 7.2%) would get a substantially smaller share of the vote than they in fact did. The same trend held true for their congressional candidates, giving all three political muscle and bargaining power. GANA will have the second-largest congressional bench, with 36 of the 158 seats. Former de facto President Efrain Rios Montt's FRG will have 15 seats, down from 27 in the current Congress, and CASA will have five. ¶6. (U) Big City Mayors. Popular Former President and Mayor of Guatemala City Alvaro Arzu (PU) won reelection, as did mayors Rolando Barrientos (GANA) of Quetzaltenango, Amilcar Rivera (PP) of Mixco, and Salvador Gandara (PU) of Villa Nueva. ¶7. (U) Those in Need of Immunity. Another group of winners were those in need of congressional or mayoral immunity from criminal prosecution. Former President Rios Montt won election to Congress, which will afford him protection from pending charges of genocide in Spanish and domestic courts. Notorious drug traffickers Brothers Manuel and Enrique Castillo won mayoral offices in Jutiapa Department, as did their close friend and associate Marvin Zepeda. At least for the time being, their new offices will afford them immunity from prosecution for narcotics trafficking and, in Manuel's case, alleged involvement in the murders of the three Salvadoran Parlacen deputies. Mixed Outcomes -------------- ¶8. (C) Perez Molina and PP. While Otto Perez Molina achieved his goal of making it to the second round, many of his supporters believed momentum from rising poll numbers and a solid performance in the CNN debate would carry him into a first-place finish. Instead, he won 23.5% of the vote, as compared to Colom's 28.2%, a result which caused some disappointment in the Perez Molina camp. One senior campaign staffer, reacting to the first-round results, summed up the feeling inside the PP camp by saying, "starting tomorrow, we're getting back to work." Despite Perez Molina's second-place finish, many observers think the momentum favors him in the second round. ¶9. (C) Mirador Electoral. With USAID and other international assistance, National NGO Mirador Electoral ("Electoral Observer") succeeded in organizing a national monitoring mission composed of some 4,000, mostly young, Guatemalan citizens. However, Mirador's quick count was delayed by transmission and other organizational problems. The Losers -------------- ¶10. (C) Rigoberta Menchu. 1992 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Rigoberta Menchu, of the Encounter for Guatemala (EPG), dropped from fourth in the polls to finish in sixth-place with 3.1% of the vote. Her party's congressional slate did twice as well, receiving 6.2% of the vote. Furthermore, Menchu won only 2.4% of the vote in her hometown of Uspantan, Quiche. The reasons for Menchu's rout are complex, but the explanations one commonly hears include: the indigenous community is fragmented, and Mayans from other groups are unwilling to be represented by a Quiche; she lacks political skills; her campaign lacked resources; and that she is an indigenous woman in a society dominated by ladino men. Whatever the reasons may be, Menchu's candidacy was unpopular, and she appears to have been a liability to her small party. ¶11. (U) Several small, leftist parties won so few votes that they lost their legal standing as political parties. These include the Guatemalan Democratic Christian Party (DCG),the Party of Authentic Integral Development (DIA),and the New Nation Alliance (ANN). The presidential candidate for the ANN was former guerrilla commander Pablo Monsanto, whose pro-Cuban Armed Rebel Forces (FAR) assassinated U.S. Ambassador John Gordon Mein in 1968. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Although the PP was somewhat disappointed with Perez Molina's second-place finish, many Guatemalan observers believe that that the former general will have an easier time convincing the supporters of first-round, center-right candidates Giammattei, Suger, Fritz, and Rabbe to vote for him than will center-left Colom. Colom's overwhelming victory at the mayoral level, however, will give him a solid rural campaign structure that Perez Molina does not have. The presidential election remains a horse race, but whoever wins will have to be ready to negotiate with the opposition in the divided Congress. Derham