COLOM LEADS PEREZ MOLINA IN FIRST-ROUND ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001806 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM ASEC GT SUBJECT: COLOM LEADS PEREZ MOLINA IN FIRST-ROUND ELECTION REF: A. A) GUATEMALA 1785 ¶B. B) GUATEMALA 1734 Classified By: DCM David Lindwall for reasons 1.4 (b&d). ¶1. (U) With 92.3% of polling stations reporting, center-left candidate Alvaro Colom of the UNE leads center-right candidate Otto Perez Molina of the Patriot Party. The two now advance to a runoff, to be held Nov. 4. At 0654 on September 10, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) reported the following preliminary results for the presidential election: UNE, Colom: 28.4% PP, Perez Molina: 24.1% GANA, Giammattei: 17.2% CASA, Suger: 7.4% FRG, Rabbe: 7.2% EG, Menchu: 3% These results track almost exactly with those of national observer "Mirador Electoral's" quick count. Voter participation appears to have been about 58%, up one point from 2003. The OAS Observation Mission (to which Embassy contributed 15 teams) and "Mirador Electoral" congratulated the TSE on the organization of the elections, which entailed nearly doubling the previous number of polling stations, to 13,756. All polling stations opened, and the great majority opened on time. Rioters burned ballots at three locations, down from six in 2003. One person was killed in rioting. There were isolated instances of fraud, vote buying, and voter intimidation that did not affect the outcome of the national elections. Popular Guatemala City Mayor and former President Alvaro Arzu won re-election with 55% of the vote. ¶2. (U) With 70% of the vote for congressional elections counted, the TSE's preliminary count is as follows: UNE: 22.3% PP: 16.8% GANA: 16.4% FRG: 9.6% EG: 6.7% PU: 6.4% CASA: 5.7% ¶3. (C) Comment: It has long been clear that Colom and Perez Molina would advance to the second round. However, Giammattei, Suger, and Rabbe garnered more of the first-round votes than expected. The outcome of the runoff presidential election will be determined in large part by those voters whose first-round candidates did not advance to the second round. The first-round elections were better organized and less violent than many observers anticipated would be the case. Derham