ELECTIONS: COLOM RETAINS LEAD IN FINAL STRETCH AMID VOTER

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001515

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS PREL KCRM SOCI GT
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: COLOM RETAINS LEAD IN FINAL STRETCH AMID VOTER
INDECISION

REF: GUATEMALA 1429 AND PREVIOUS


1. Summary: As the election campaign enters its final 45 days,
voter tendencies remain unchanged; Alvaro Colom (UNE) and Otto Perez
Molina (PP) continue to maintain a significant lead in the polls
over second-tier candidates, and there remains a large undecided
segment of the electorate. A recent Vox Latina poll on the second
round shows only a slight three-point lead for Colom, while a Borge
y Asociados poll shows a much wider spread between the top two
contenders. While it is too soon to predict the dynamics of the
second round, the polls show Colom to be the favorite. End summary.


The Top Five
--------------

2. Two recent polls show that candidates' positions have remained
relatively stable over the past few months. In a July 30 Borge y
Asociados poll, Alvaro Colom of center-left National Unity for Hope
(UNE) ranked first, with 33 percent intention of vote (up from 28
percent in June),Otto Perez Molina of center-right Partido
Partriota (PP) ranked second, with 23.1 percent (up from 13 percent
in June),while governing party GANA candidate Alejandro Giammattei
got 8.9 percent (up from 6 percent in June) and Nobel laureate
Rigoberta Menchu got 5.5 percent (down from 7 percent in June).


3. Results of a recent Vox Latina poll, conducted by simulated
ballot and published July 25, generally coincide with the Borge
poll, although it puts Menchu in fifth place, behind Eduardo Suger
of Center of Social Action. The poll shows Colom retaining his lead
with 21.33 percent (up from 20.75 percent in June) intention of
vote, and widest support among the indigenous population, rural
areas, and among those who earn less than Q1,500 (USD 197) per
month. Perez Molina continues in second place with 14.42 percent
(up from 12.25 percent),with most of his support in urban areas and
the central region and among those who earn more than Q1,500 per
month.


4. Giammattei is in third with 8.17 percent, while Eduardo Suger,
trailing with 2.50 percent, has moved up to fourth from seventh
place. Menchu is in fifth place with 2.42 percent, up from 1.50
percent last month. Giammattei's supporters are largely college
students and professionals with incomes of more than Q3,000 (USD
395) per month. Suger is popular among youth and university
students, while Menchu is more popular among the indigenous than
among ladinos.


5. In rural areas, Colom has the largest percentage of intention of
vote, with 22.2 percent. Among the indigenous population, Colom is
also the favorite, with 23.1 percent, followed by Perez Molina with
13.6 percent and Giammattei with 7.4 percent. Among the
college-educated, Giammattei is the preferred candidate, with 16.9
percent, compared to Colom and Perez Molina, each with 15.7 percent.


The Second Round
--------------

6. According to the Vox Latina poll, Colom would only have a slight
lead in the second round, with 51.5 percent of the votes, over Perez
Molina, with 48.5 percent. The Borge poll shows a greater margin
between Colom and Perez Molina, with Colom getting 52.2 percent and
Perez Molina getting 38 percent.


7. Colom continues to have weak support in the capital, and his
campaign has been beset by crises: a recent vote in a congressional
committee against the International Commission for Impunity in
Guatemala (CICIG),reflecting division within his own party on a
critical security measure; an investigation against a high-profile
party official for alleged ties to organized crime; and allegations
of a smear campaign against Perez Molina for suggesting that his
party intentionally masterminded attacks against bus drivers to
bolster support for his "mano dura" campaign.

The Undecided
--------------

8. According to the latest Vox Latina poll, 37.92 percent remain
undecided (down from 40.42 percent in the last poll in June).
Analysts commented that the drop in the percentage of undecided
voters signaled a positive development, with a move toward
consolidation of the top two candidates, although it was too early
to predict who would capture the votes of supporters of former
presidential candidate Harold Caballeros, who withdrew from the race
after failing to register his party in time.


Comment
--------------

9. Voter tendencies have not changed over the course of the past
few months. Colom, with widespread name recognition from his two
prior bids for the presidency, and first-time candidate Perez
Molina, with his "mano dura" campaign, remain the top two
contenders. They present distinctly different personalities and

appeal to different sectors of the population. While polls show
conflicting point spread in the November run-off, it is too soon to
predict the dynamics of a second round.