The Tiger Sprints Ahead: ExxonMobil First Western Oil Major

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 000317 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN USDOC FOR 1003/ITA/OUS/OC USDOC FOR 6310/ITA/TD/OIEM/KMURPHY/HBURROUGHS/KHOLLANDE R USDOC FOR 6000/ITA/TD/RPACE TRANSPORTATION FOR FEDERAL RAILWAY ADMINISTRATION/KROHN USDOE FOR OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY - MOURAD USDOE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS/DPUMPHREY/RSPRICE USDOE FOR FOSSIL POLICY AND ENERGY/MSMITH/ADUCCA USDOE FOR MSINGER/GRUDINS/JNAKANO STATE FOR EAP/CM, EB/TRA, AND EB/ESC/IEC STATE ALSO PASS USTR FOR CHINA OFFICE USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG ECON EMIN SENV PREF CH TW SUBJECT: The Tiger Sprints Ahead: ExxonMobil First Western Oil Major to Launch Fully Integrated Joint Venture in China REF: A) 05 Guangzhou 32392, B) 05 Guangzhou 32648 THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED AND INCLUDES BUSINESS SENSITIVE INFORMATION. IT SHOULD NOT BE DISSEMINATED OUTSIDE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT CHANNELS OR IN ANY PUBLIC FORUM WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONCURRENCE OF THE ORIGINATOR. IT SHOULD NOT BE POSTED ON THE INTERNET. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: ExxonMobil became the first U.S. oil major to launch a fully integrated refining, petrochemicals, and fuels marketing joint venture in China with the signing of the contract on February, 25. Although Chinese partner Sinopec stated in the media that the company's ability to refine sour crude is not mature, ExxonMobil believes that the real benefit sought by Sinopec is a significant relationship with a politically-powerful U.S. company. The deal also offers significant benefits to ExxonMobil including a guaranteed purchase contract for 100 percent of the refinery's output and the modernization and re-branding of approximately 750 fuel stations in Fujian province. This would make ExxonMobil's Esso brand, at least temporarily, the largest foreign fuel brand in South China. END SUMMARY. Joint Venture Details -------------- ¶2. (U) As reported in various U.S. and Chinese media sources, on February 25, 2007 U.S. oil giant ExxonMobil signed contracts creating the first fully integrated refining, petrochemical, and fuel marketing joint venture with foreign participants in China. The deal, which expands on an existing refining joint venture, the Fujian Refining and Ethylene Joint Venture Project located in Quanzhou of Fujian Province (ref A),will triple existing refining capacity from 4 MMt/y (Millions of tons per year) to 12 MMT/y. The refinery will continue to primarily refine low-sulfur Saudi crude. ¶3. (U) The project will also construct an 800,000 tons/year ethylene steam cracker, an 800,000 tons/year polyethylene unit, a 400,000 tons/year polypropylene unit, and produce 700,000 tons/year of paraxylene (a feedstock for the production of polyester fiber). All output from the petrochemicals plant is expected to be used domestically. Fujian Petrochemical Company Limited, itself a 50-50 joint venture between China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, better known as Sinopec, and the Fujian government owns 50% of the refining and petrochemicals joint venture, ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco own 25% each. ¶4. (U) The deal also includes the formation of Fujian Fuels Marketing Joint Venture Project to market diesel and gasoline produced by the Fujian Refining and Ethylene Joint Venture Project. The joint venture will run approximately 750 fuel stations in Fujian province as well as a network of fuel distribution terminals. Sinopec owns 55% of the joint venture, ExxonMobil 22.5% and Saudi Aramco 22.5%. For China, Deal About More Than Just Capital and Expertise -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The new deal has been over 12 years in the making with discussions beginning in 1994 and has seen both Sinopec and ExxonMobil proceeding deliberately. Sinopec statements in the media frame the deal with ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco as providing technology and capabilities that Sinopec lacks to process the imported sour Saudi crude oil supplied to the refinery. In actuality, all the equipment can be bought "off the shelf" from oil services companies which would also provide training on its use. The relationships and the potential political capital they give the Chinese government in the respective countries are more important. GUANGZHOU 00000317 002 OF 003 ¶6. (SBU) Despite the refinery location in Quanzhou and the fuel marketing joint venture headquarters to be set up in Fuzhou, negotiations were largely driven by Sinopec's Beijing office; the National Development and Reform Commission has had a high degree of oversight for the deal. It is not by coincidence that ExxonMobil, the most profitable and highest revenue publicly traded company in the world, was given access to an almost monopoly position in Fujian province, just across the straits from Taiwan. Whether a multi-billion dollar ExxonMobil investment so near Taiwan would actually lead the company to lobby on China's behalf in the event of rising tensions is problematic but the Chinese government has likely given consideration to the possibility of this intangible. ¶7. (SBU) A second benefit of the joint venture is to supposedly spread the risk among all parties involved, though Sinopec is taking on the bulk of the exposure. Throughout early negotiations, Sinopec insisted that it would purchase 100% of the output of the refinery at a price linked to global oil prices. In summer 2005, after global oil prices surged and government-regulated gas prices did not adjust to meet the rising costs for refiners (ref B),Sinopec told the joint venture it would be responsible for selling the refinery output and could find other customers besides Sinopec. Just before the signing of the contract, Sinopec reversed course again and changed the terms back to the original take-all position. ¶8. (SBU) Fujian province has a current oil demand of over 5 MMt/y and current projections of 10% growth per year in oil product use. In 2009, when the new refinery upgrades are completed and running at capacity refinery output should still exceed the demand for gasoline in Fujian by approximately 5 MMt/y. This surplus capacity will turn Fujian from its current status as an importer of gasoline to an exporter and allow Sinopec to move the excess output to the oil-thirsty Pearl River Delta. Yet if rising oil prices cause refining costs to exceed government regulated fuel prices again, the cost among refining partners is Sinopec's alone, as sole purchaser, to bear. ExxonMobil - Leaping Ahead in China -------------- ¶9. (SBU) ExxonMobil proved an astute negotiator in this deal. Even while British Petroleum and Shell raced ahead of ExxonMobil to create their own joint ventures with Sinopec and opened stations more quickly, ExxonMobil, which had its own 18 stations' diesel supply cut in the past, insisted that any retail joint venture had to be integrated into a refinery joint venture. ExxonMobil is more concerned about the reliability of the gasoline source and the ability to control costs and capture revenues than having the most stations. By integrating the refining and retail joint ventures, the company guarantees that all 750 stations will have a supply of diesel and gasoline from the Quanzhou refinery even if shortages begin to occur in the region. Furthermore with Sinopec purchasing all of the output of the refinery at market prices, ExxonMobil will have strong incentive to make the refinery the most efficient and lowest cost producer of fuels in China to maximize their profit. ¶10. (SBU) The retail fuel stations included in the deal will be branded with both Esso and Sinopec on the canopy and Aramco on the pumps. Although the time frame to modernize and expand all 750 stations in Fujian to match ExxonMobil's high standards for retail stations will be years, the company knows it must use its past experience in China to change the mindset of Sinopec executives in the joint venture to accomplish the upgrade. ¶11. (SBU) Foreign oil companies are still limited to only 30 wholly-owned stations in China despite China's entry into the WTO. The 18 Esso stations currently operating in Guangdong are some of the most modern and best producing stations in China though, often doing six times the volume of a typical Sinopec station. Two Esso GUANGZHOU 00000317 003 OF 003 stations in Zhongshan, in Guangdong province, were the highest ExxonMobil fuel stations in the world by fuel sales volume in February. Additionally, Esso stations have convenience stores and ExxonMobil is in discussions with Kentucky Fried Chicken to add drive-thru restaurants to some of its Chinese retail stations. It is this lack of total dependence on fuel sales, along with external hedging of the gas price risk, which should allow the joint venture fuel stations to be a winning bet for ExxonMobil. Comment - Win-Win Outcome -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The newly created joint ventures provide a win-win outcome for all parties involved. China and Sinopec secure a 12 MMt/y source of diesel and gasoline from a relatively stable exporter in SaQrabia; an injection of financial capital, engineering expertise, and perhaps most importantly marketing acumen from an industry leader in ExxonMobil; and spread the commodity and political risk involved in these large scale projects located so close to Taiwan. From a market perspective, the most efficient tack for Sinopec would be to let the refining joint venture sell the fuels on the open market. It is clear from Beijing's involvement and Sinopec's take-all purchase provision that China's pursuit to secure energy sources and refining capacity to feed its own growth trump any one company's financial gains. ¶13. (SBU) For ExxonMobil, finances are the major factor. The slow pace of the negotiation was mainly the result of ExxonMobil's due diligence and risk management strategies. Having been cut off from diesel fuel at its stations before, the insistence of combining a marketing and refining joint venture that can guarantee supply to the retail stations makes sound business sense, especially knowing that South China's pace of building new refining capacity continues to lag behind projected usage growth. It seems to us unlikely that ExxonMobil has not taken into account China-Taiwan considerations in the risk assessment of this project. In the event of hostilities in the region, even with deep pockets and political clout the company's influence on U.S. policy would be minimal. ExxonMobil itself is far more likely to benefit from increased Chinese government influence through the joint venture as Sinopec and the other Chinese oil majors continue to lobby Beijing for increased flexibility and speed in the adjustment of regulated gasoline prices to better reflect the market price of oil. GOLDBERG