SIERRA LEONE CALM BUT ANXIOUS ON THE EVE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 FREETOWN 000479 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA (BGRAVES) E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SL SUBJECT: SIERRA LEONE CALM BUT ANXIOUS ON THE EVE OF NATIONAL ELECTIONS REF: FREETOWN 471 Classified By: Ambassador Thomas N. Hull for reasons 1.4 (b and d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Sierra Leone will hold its presidential and parliamentary elections on August 11. These are the second national elections since the end of the decade-long civil war in 2002, and the first since peacekeepers departed in December 2005. Seven political parties are running for the presidency. The outcome of the elections is still uncertain as no party seems to have gained a clear political advantage. The official campaign period ended August 9, and all of the three larger political parties held well-attended and peaceful political rallies in Freetown and other areas in the country on the last three days of campaigning. Enthusiastic party supporters came out in large numbers to support their candidates wearing bright party colors. Sierra Leone also held its first-ever presidential and vice presidential debates on August 5 and 7. Although the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) refused to participate, both events were well attended and drew considerable media attention. Violence remains the number one concern, particularly in the aftermath of polling day. Some political party leaders have voiced concerns that violence is likely to occur. About 350 international observers, as well as 6,750 civil society and 8,670 party agents, have deployed to monitor the elections. END SUMMARY. WHO WILL WIN? -------------- ¶2. (C) With the end of the official campaign period on August 9, there is still no clear favorite to win the presidency. Publicly, officials of the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) remain confident that their candidate, current Vice President Solomon Berewa, will win the presidency. However, many high-placed officials in the SLPP have voiced private reservations to the Ambassador complaining that Berewa has not used SLPP party structures to his advantage, and feel if Berewa loses, it will be his personal fault, not the party's. Nevertheless, he has exhausted himself in the past few months, as he traveled throughout Sierra Leone pursuing his candidacy. A closely held British Government assessment indicates that Berewa will get a plurality and may even reach the 55 percent majority needed to avoid a runoff election. However, public sentiment is high for change as there is large disenchantment with the current SLPP administration for its failure to reform government and rebuild the dismal infrastructure following the civil war. The outcome of the Parliamentary elections is even more uncertain, but the shifting demographics of Sierra Leone have made an opposition majority possible. POLITICAL PARTIES HOLD PEACEFUL RALLIES -------------- ¶3. (SBU) All three main parties held large political rallies in Freetown on the last three days of the official campaign period that ended August 9. Observers reported all rallies were peaceful and without incident. On August 7, the People's Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC),led by party leader and presidential candidate Charles Margai, held two marches, one beginning in East Freetown and the other in the western part of the city. The marchers converged on Victoria Park in central Freetown where they listened to speeches by party leaders and showed their support sporting bright orange T-shirts. Approximately 20,000 attended. A similar rally in Bo, however, only drew 2,000 PMDC supporters. ¶4. (SBU) The All People's Congress (APC) held its rally on August 8. Supporters in Freetown, where the APC is favored, turned out en masse to cheer their candidate, Ernest Bai Koroma, as he made his way to the National Stadium. During local government elections in 2004, the APC won over 80 percent of the vote in Freetown, and hope again to capitalize on strong APC party support in the capital. Viewing downtown Freetown from the hills above near Fourah Bay College, one could see a sea of red (the APC color) stretching for long distances as jubilant marchers moved peacefully to the National Stadium to cheer their presidential candidate. UN Police Observers reported no incidents of violence and said marchers were in high spirits and cooperative. Embassy observers monitoring the marches and rally said the Sierra Leone Police (SLP) had to turn supporters away from the National Stadium that was filled well beyond its 42,000 seating capacity. Observers in Bo in the Southern Province, traditionally a SLPP stronghold, say the APC had a strong showing of party supporters at the rally held there. At the National Stadium, Party Leader Ernest Koroma urged supporters to desist from violence. FREETOWN 00000479 002 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) SLPP political rallies country-wide were reportedly peaceful and without incident, although turnout was unexpectedly low, particularly in Freetown. SLPP presidential candidate Vice President Solomon Berewa led a procession through Freetown to the National Stadium. Unfortunately for the SLPP, unlike the APC and PMDC rallies, it rained throughout the day. The SLPP claimed the rain was "cleansing." FIRST PRESIDENTIAL AND VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES HELD -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Sierra Leone Association of Journalists (SLAJ), with assistance from the USAID-funded National Democratic Institute (NDI),held the first-ever vice presidential and presidential debates on August 5 and 7. All candidates, except the SLPP aspirants, participated in the debates, which drew considerable interest and were well attended. Both debates were broadcast live over UN Radio. Candidates were asked questions on health and education, employment and youth development, agriculture and rural development, children and gender affairs, peace and security, the state of the economy, and the woeful lack of public utilities and infrastructure. The vice presidential debate, held on August 5, was dominated by the APC vice presidential candidate Samuel Sam-Sumana who appeared to have been the best briefed. However the debate lacked substance as all of the candidates failed to articulate a new vision or path to reform for the country. Many were clearly not acquainted with the issues they were asked to address. ¶7. (SBU) On August 7, SLAJ held the presidential debate. PMDC presidential candidate Charles Margai arrived late from the PMDC political rally. Making bold accusations and insulting the chairperson of the event, who is a member of the ruling SLPP, Margai drew repeated applause and cheers from the audience. Interestingly, Margai openly campaigned for APC presidential hopeful Ernest Koroma, complimenting Koroma and defending him against accusations from the other presidential candidates. In his closing statement, Margai said he felt there would be violence on election day, and said he had no confidence in the security forces. ¶8. (SBU) The SLPP explained its absence through a press statement issued before the debate that said vice presidential candidate Foreign Minister Momodu Koroma and presidential candidate Vice President Solomon Berewa would not attend the debates unless Opposition leaders Koroma and Margai denounced violence in the elections. The SLPP used press quotes taken out of context from earlier Margai and Koroma interviews to accuse them both of planning to make Sierra Leone ungovernable by inciting party supporters to use violence to disrupt the elections and to not accept the results. APC presidential candidate Koroma publicly refuted the SLPP's claims stating that if he lost, he would accept the results, if the election is deemed credible. THREAT OF VIOLENCE LURKS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The threat of violence remains a major concern for all elections stakeholders. A spate of incidents following the commencement of the official campaigning period on July 10 quickly prompted statements from the international and NGO communities condemning elections violence and encouraging all political party leaders to accept the election results. A strongly-worded July 29 statement from the diplomatic community issued by the United Nations Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL) called for political party leaders to promote peaceful campaigning and prevent provocative conduct on the part of their supporters. The statement also called for Paramount Chiefs to affirm their commitment to the promotion of the democratic process in the country. As traditional rulers, the Paramount Chiefs wield considerable political influence and have been known to impose their political beliefs on their subjects, ¶10. (SBU) On August 1, the Office of National Security, in coordination with the Political Parties Registration Commission (PPRC) and National Electoral Commission (NEC), held an Elections Security Consultative Conference to address elections violence. National Security Coordinator Kellie Conteh stated that there was a general and unacceptable level of violence being displayed between political opponents predominantly in the Southern and Eastern Provinces of Sierra Leone and strongly cautioned political parties from employing the services of former junta members linked with the violence in the civil war as security and political advisors. He said giving these individuals legitimized roles in the political process unnecessarily raised the political temperature in the country. FREETOWN 00000479 003 OF 003 Electoral Observers -------------- ¶11. (U) The elections will be well monitored. Close to 350 international observers will deploy throughout the country, including teams from ECOWAS, the AU, the EU, the European Parliament and the Commonwealth. NDI is also hosting an international group of observers, including some Americans. There will also be 6,751 domestic observers from Sierra Leone civil society groups, 8,670 political party agents, and 41 media representatives observing the elections at 6,171 polling stations. As noted reftel, the Embassy will also field employees to monitor and report on the electoral progress. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Most election observers anticipate election day will be quiet. The NEC, with excellent logistical assistance from the UN, UN technical experts and other international donors, seems well poised to address the logistical challenges on election day. Ballot delivery and electoral official training has proceeded smoothly and on schedule. The greatest challenge will be the inclement weather. The forecast calls for torrential rains the entire day, which will impede the ability of voters to reach the polls, particularly in remote rural areas. ¶13. (SBU) It was very encouraging that the rallies of the three major political parties occurred without incident and supporters were in good spirits. The real concern is what will happen after the electoral results are announced, and whether political party leaders will accept the final outcome. The vote count will begin at each polling station as soon as the last voters in line cast their ballots. Unofficial results are likely to dribble in, although the NEC has urged the media not to announce results until officially certified. The latest results must be announced is August 23. ¶14. (C) Effectively, during the interim, there will be a governance vacuum. This past week, all ministers were given 24 hours notice to step down before the election. President Kabbah will continue in office as a caretaker until the new president is announced and inaugurated. The President's advisors have told the Ambassador that they expect the Chief Justice to swear-in the new President by August 17 at the latest, but that assumes that NEC will have certified the final results and that one of the candidates will have achieved the requisite majority. ¶15. (SBU) A critical element will be whether the losing candidates will exercise the leadership necessary to forestall violence caused by disappointment in the results. Discontent may take many forms. There are news reports that market women in Freetown have vowed to march naked to the American and British Ambassadors, residences to protest a SLPP victory. END COMMENT. HULL