SIERRA LEONE ELECTIONS ON TRACK AS CAMPAIGNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 FREETOWN 000421 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA (BGRAVES) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR SL SUBJECT: SIERRA LEONE ELECTIONS ON TRACK AS CAMPAIGNING BEGINS REF: FREETOWN 412 Classified By: Ambassador Thomas N. Hull for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The official campaign period for Sierra Leone's August 11 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections began on July 10. With the elections under a month away, no party has emerged as the clear favorite to win. Indications are there could be a runoff in the presidential election between the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) and the opposition All People's Congress (APC). All three of the major party presidential candidates have named their vice presidential running mates, and the nomination period for presidential candidates has concluded. There will be nearly an 80 to 90 percent turnover in Parliament as many incumbents decided to not seek re-election or were not nominated by their political parties. ¶2. (U) Preparations for the August 11 national elections remain on track. Recently approved funding from the Peace Building Fund (PBF),contingent on the GoSL paying the remaining balance, will help cover remaining elections costs of nearly $3 million. The GoSL has a fiscal crisis prompted by some major donors freezing direct budget support. This has impaired the GoSL's ability to provide timely budgetary support for the National Electoral Commission's (NEC) elections preparations. At a recent PBF meeting, the Minister of Finance promised donors the GoSL will meet its full elections obligations by the end of July. ¶3. (SBU) The political atmosphere remains mainly positive. To date, there have been minimal incidents of political violence, intimidation, and intolerance. The Sierra Leone Police (SLP) have exhibited a surprising capacity to manage conflict despite its limited resources and staffing. It also has maintained its neutrality. Short on personnel, the SLP have recruited and trained officers from the Fire Service, Prison Authority, and Chiefdom Police to assist with security on election day. Officials from the United Nations Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL) are concerned about a plan by the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces (RSLAF) to provide standby security assistance to the SLP for the elections. While the RSLAF appears relatively stable, rumors persist about possible military interference following the elections. USAID, through the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and IFES, is providing support for conflict mitigation training in all 112 constituencies. IFES is providing technical and administrative support to the Political Party Registration Committee to resolve complaints raised by political parties. END SUMMARY. WHO WILL WIN AUGUST 11? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) As the August 11 national elections fast approach, none of the three main presidential candidates has emerged as the clear favorite, and there is uncertainty if any party will achieve the required 55 percent to win the presidency. According to NEC officials, if there is a runoff, the deadline to hold the runoff would be around September 8. The NEC says if the results come back earlier, it could hold a runoff as soon as September 1. Election observers believe a runoff would be between the ruling SLPP and opposition APC. CAMPAIGN SEASON BEGAN JULY 10 -------------- ¶5. (U) Although the campaign season officially began on July 10, all three main political party presidential candidates for the ruling SLPP and opposition APC and People's Democratic Movement for Change (PMDC) have been actively campaigning for some time under the pretext of "sensitizing" their followers. The National Electoral Commission (NEC) and Political Party Registration Commission (PPRC) have been virtually powerless to enforce electoral law that bans campaigning until the NEC officially announced the start of the campaign period. Campaigning will officially end on August 9. SLPP TAKES OPPOSITION SERIOUSLY -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Although the ruling SLPP boasts it will easily win the elections, the seriousness and vigor with which presidential candidate Vice President Solomon Berewa is campaigning indicates he and the SLPP are taking the APC's FREETOWN 00000421 002 OF 005 and PMDC's challenges seriously. The PMDC, which formed when a disgruntled Charles Margai split with the SLPP in 2005 after a failed attempt to secure the SLPP presidential nomination, will siphon off some of the traditional SLPP vote in the Eastern and Southern Provinces and likely provide a small opening for the APC to pick up votes in traditional SLPP strongholds. Areas like Bo and Pujehun in the South, which have traditionally gone to the SLPP, will be hotly contested between the PMDC and SLPP, although it is unlikely the PMDC will win outside of Margai's home district of Moyamba. QADHAFI VISIT PUTS SLPP ON DEFENSIVE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Recent miscalculations by President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah have put Vice President Solomon Berewa on the defensive causing him to distance himself from the outgoing President. Following the recent visit of Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi to Sierra Lone, President Kabbah was forced to defend himself and his government against allegations that SLPP officials had personally profited from humanitarian assistance. During the visit, President Kabbah publicly thanked Qadhafi for Libyan rice consignments sent in 2001-2002 (Reftel),which the public and press interpreted as affirmation of government corruption since they had no recollection of the gift. ¶8. (SBU) This backlash and other political gaffes have contributed to a greater uncertainty surrounding Berewa's presidential bid. Hand-picked by President Kabbah as the SLPP presidential candidate, Berewa is widely viewed as lacking charisma and energy, although he has campaigned hard throughout the country. Sierra Leoneans enjoy making fun of Berewa's tendency to fall asleep during public events, the most recent being President Kabbah's farewell address to Parliament. Berewa's advanced age (approximately 77) has necessitated the selection of a much younger running mate. STRANGE BEDFELLOWS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The SLPP has announced that the political wing of the Revolutionary United Front, the RUFP, has declared its support for the SLPP, since it did not qualify for the elections itself. Bitter enemies during the civil war, these two parties are now opportunistic bedfellows. Also, two prominent former members of the National Provisional Revolutionary Council (NPRC) have declared their support for the SLPP. In 1996, the SLPP replaced the NPRC military junta that was led by Brigadier Maada Bio. Bio and former Secretary of State Tom Nyuma have actively participated in recent SLPP rallies. Both have strong U.S. ties: Bio studied at American University and is a businessman in Freetown, and Nyuma, who lived in the U.S. for many years, was deported July 2 on domestic abuse charges. The New Vision newspaper reports that other prominent NPRC members have also been seen dressed in green, the SLPP party color. BEREWA ACCEPTS FM KOROMA AS RUNNING MATE -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Berewa's recent selection of Foreign Affairs Minister Momodu Koroma as the SLPP vice presidential candidate was received with mixed reviews. It is widely speculated that President Kabbah forced Koroma, who had earlier been Minister of Presidential Affairs, on Berewa. Berewa, being a southern Christian, reportedly would have preferred to balance the ticket with a Muslim from the APC-dominated North to help SLPP chances in the region. SLPP politicians are seriously concerned that Koroma is unelectable and actually harms Berewa's candidacy. Although Koroma's father was a northern Muslim, he never lived in the North himself, and is therefore rejected by northerners as one of their own. Nonetheless, the SLPP continues to poll decently in the North. This was apparent during the Ambassador's recent trip to Kambia near the Guinea border, where SLPP and APC support is evenly divided. ARE THE OPPOSITION PARTIES VIABLE OPTIONS? -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The PMDC's popularity with youth seems to be losing momentum, likely symptomatic of the public's discomfort with PMDC presidential hopeful Charles Margai's demagogue-like approach to leadership. However, Margai, the nephew and son of Sierra Leone's first two prime ministers, possesses enough influence to make trouble, particularly among disenchanted youth. Margai's running mate, Dr. Ibrahim Tejan Jalloh, an elderly former Health Minister from the far northeastern FREETOWN 00000421 003 OF 005 district of Koinadugu, brings nothing to the ticket except regional and religious balance. ¶12. (SBU) APC presidential candidate Ernest Koroma was last to announce his running mate. According to APC party officials, Koroma was waiting to see whom the SLPP would choose. Koroma countered Berewa's selection of Momodu Koroma by selecting Chief Samuel Sam-Sumana, a private businessman and son of a late paramount chief from the Kono District in the East. By adding Sam-Sumana to the ticket, the APC hopes to cement their hold on Kono, a key district for their strategy, and strengthen their numbers in the SLPP-dominated East. Although Sam-Sumana may help the APC in Kono, his appeal elsewhere appears minimal. Sam-Sumana returned to Sierra Leone two years ago after spending many years in the United States studying and working. Bios on the presidential and vice presidential candidates will follow septel. ¶13. (SBU) The APC's campaign had earlier been slowed by a protracted court battle within the party leadership. However, the parties settled their differences out of court, which allowed the APC to refocus its efforts and regain momentum. Nevertheless, the prolonged court battle sapped the APC coffers considerably, leaving the Party weakened against the well-funded SLPP. However, Koroma may not have much confidence in his own candidacy, as he approached the NEC to inquire if election law allowed presidential candidates to run for both president and Parliament. NEC responded this was allowed as it was also raised in the 2002 elections. LARGE TURNOVER IN PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶14. (SBU) At the launch of the Campaign Period Process on July 10, NEC Chairperson Christiana Thorpe announced 572 candidates will vie for parliamentary seats. There will be a large turnover in Parliament, with an estimated 80 to 90 percent of the membership expected to change. Of all the political parties, the SLPP did best in selecting their parliamentary candidates by holding party primaries in a transparent fashion. As a result, they will probably do well in the Parliamentary elections. With the return to constituency-based elections, many old party stalwarts were replaced by fresh, younger faces with strong community ties, and many incumbents also chose not to seek re-election. The APC, on the other hand, resorted to backroom politics in the final selection of its parliamentary candidates, largely because of the need to reunite the party and raise campaign funds. Although demographic shifts and redistricting favor the APC, their chances of a parliamentary majority have been hurt by weaker constituency ties. YOUTH ARE THE X FACTOR -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Youth will play a large factor in the elections as 41 percent of voter registrants are between the ages of 18 and 27 years old. Many youth have associated themselves with the PMDC, especially in areas like Bo and Pujehun in the South. The SLPP has gained some ground through the GoSL's Youth Employment Scheme launched in October 2006. However, the GoSL has reportedly run out of money to continue funding this program. The APC is counting on the urban youth moving to their longer-established opposition party. PEACE BUILING FUND PROVIDES RELIEF FOR FISCAL CRISIS -------------- -------------- ¶16. (C) During a July 6 meeting at UNIOSIL, Executive Representative for the Secretary General (ERSG) Victor Angelo expressed grave concerns about Sierra Leone's fiscal crisis and its effect on election preparations. Major direct budget donors have temporarily suspended assistance until after the elections in part to discourage the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) from using assistance to support political campaigning. ¶17. (C) UNIOSIL identified Peace Building Funds as a viable option to help alleviate some of the fiscal pressure on the GoSL. It and the GoSL submitted a proposal requesting $1.6 million of funding from the PBF for electoral assistance to help cover the estimated $3 million needed to pay for election preparations and a runoff if necessary. On July 11, the PBF Steering Committee met and approved the proposal contingent on the GoSL paying the remaining 50 percent of costs. The same day the GoSL promptly paid the NEC $500,000, and Minister of Finance John Benjamin pledged another $667,000 payment at the end of July. Angelo had previously told President Kabbah and Vice President Berewa the GoSL would be held accountable to provide their share of the FREETOWN 00000421 004 OF 005 funding. Government leaders, meanwhile, are privately accusing the budget support donors, especially the British, of trying to orchestrate "a regime change" that could backfire into a military coup. SECURITY FORCES: ARE THEY UP TO THE TASK? -------------- ¶18. (SBU) The PBF Steering Committee also approved $1.85 million in assistance to support the Sierra Leone Police, RSLAF and Prison Authority. Budget constraints continue to be the greatest obstacle for security operations. In the field, many police units have not been paid and lack fuel, working vehicles and other critical provisions. UNIOSIL police advisors are providing much needed assistance to help the SLP maintain operations. Despite these challenges, the SLP have managed to maintain the peace, public order, and their neutrality in political matters. With assistance from DFID, the SLP have trained an additional 600 chiefdom police, Fire Service, and Prison Authority officers to assist with security operations on election day. The SLP have developed a plan, described by the UN as "excellent," to preposition police in key areas for rapid response in the event of violence in areas identified as potential "hot spots." Despite this recent infusion of assistance, the SLP still will be challenged should there be an outbreak of larger-scale political violence incidents. UNIOSIL SURPRISED BY RSLAF PLAN TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SECURITY -------------- -------------- ¶19. (C) ERSG Angelo reported July 6 that the RSLAF has drafted a plan to provide one company per brigade as a contingency plan to support the SLP if necessary. Angelo said he was surprised by this news and thought the current threat level did not warrant such a plan. He expressed concern the RSLAF are not properly trained to conduct crowd control tactics. According to the UK International Military Advisory and Training Team (IMATT) deputy commander, the RSLAF resents being left out of the election preparations, and believe they have a professional role to play, but they are being opposed by National Security Advisor Kelli Conteh. (Comment: RSLAF companies typically consist of 2-3 officers and 42 enlisted soldiers. The RSLAF have had no academic or operational training in crowd control and only a handful have received peacekeeping training. End Comment.) ¶20. (C) There are unconfirmed rumors that the RSLAF will be asked intervene on the ruling SLPP's behalf if it loses the election. In its interactions with the RSLAF, IMATT personnel have not picked up any indications that these rumors are true. There also are ongoing concerns about payment of wages for the RSLAF. The GoSL has approved new Terms and Conditions of Service (TACOS) for the RSLAF. However, the GoSL, according to UNIOSIL, only has enough funds to pay RSLAF wages for July, but not August, which would create a crisis for the new government. The GoSL has had difficulty providing the RSLAF with adequate rations, and soldiers have not been paid in a timely fashion. The RSLAF will gain some relief from the recently approved PBF funding, but it too, will have to continue to contend with the effects of the difficult fiscal situation. CATHOLIC MISSIONS TRAIN CHIEFS ON ELECTIONS -------------- ¶21. (SBU) Paramount chiefs, the traditional local rulers in Sierra Leone, wield considerable political influence and have instructed their subjects on who to vote for in past elections. In response, Catholic Missions around the country have implemented training seminars to persuade paramount to be neutral in the elections and not promote or condone incidents of political intolerance and intimidation. The seminars also stressed the importance of providing a fair and level playing field for all political parties in their chiefdoms. The seminars, which have been conducted in Kenema, Bo, and Makeni, have been well attended with paramount chiefs traveling long distances to participate. At the conclusion of the seminars, they have signed protocol statements pledging their affirmation and commitment to the promotion of the democratic process in the country. According to Bishop Biguzzi, a prominent cleric, the chiefs had refused similar training from the NEC because it had failed to consult them in election planning. USG ELECTION ASSISTANCE -------------- ¶22. (SBU) USAID is funding the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and IFES to provide electoral assistance. Both are FREETOWN 00000421 005 OF 005 conducting voter education activities and working with political parties providing technical assistance for party registration, training parties to monitor the electoral process, and ensuring compliance with the Political Parties Code of Conduct that was adopted by all registered political parties in November 2006. NDI is also working with a new coalition of NGOs called Democracy Sierra Leone (DSL) to provide conflict mitigation and prevention training in all 14 districts. IFES is providing support to the Political Parties Registration Commission (PPRC) to train individuals, including paramount chiefs, imams, local authorities, clergy, women, and youth, to participate on Political Party Code of Conduct Monitoring Committees in each district. These committees are helping to mitigate or prevent intra and inter party conflicts that occur during the run up to the election on August 11. The latest reports are the committees are making progress and have been well-received. IFES has also provided assistance to the PPRC to open offices in Makeni (North),Kenema (East),and Bo (South). COMMENT -------------- ¶23. (SBU) The outcome of the elections is still very uncertain. No political party has emerged with a noticeable lead, and all candidates are hard at work campaigning, which suggests there is an assumption the elections process will be free and fair. Elections preparations have gone remarkably well with only minor glitches, and the NEC has performed admirably given the numerous logistical and financial constraints and difficult environment in which it has had to operate. Election observers note the GoSL and political parties have observed the constitutional independence of the NEC and the PPRC. For the moment, the GoSL's financial crisis appears resolved given the GoSL continues to meet its financial commitments to election preparations. ¶24. (SBU) Now that the campaign season has commenced, it is highly probable that isolated incidents of political violence and fabricated political accusations will dominate the news headlines as parties and their enthusiastic supporters hold more frequent rallies and marches. Altercations between party supporters will test the SLP's capacity to maintain the peace, and media reports will stir emotions. The lack of political polling makes it difficult to guess how the process will play out, and it remains to be seen how Sierra Leoneans who are not satisfied with the status quo will vote at the polls. ¶25. (SBU) Given past ballot stuffing and vote count manipulation, there is concern about safeguards against electoral fraud, but to date the NEC has shown great integrity. Election observers will be at every polling station. Looking beyond the election, acceptance of the results by the public, military, and political parties will be the final hurdle, unless a Presidential runoff is required in September. END COMMENT. HULL