Social Democratic Leader on Trans-Atlantic Relations, U.S.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000671 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR GM SUBJECT: Social Democratic Leader on Trans-Atlantic Relations, U.S. Military Presence, and EU Presidency Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On February 1, national SPD Chairman and Rheinland-Pfalz Minister-President Kurt Beck spoke with the Consul General at the state chancellery in Mainz, praising trans-Atlantic relations, raising concerns about military stationing issues, and offering his take on goals for the German EU/G-8 presidencies. Beck is the most likely SPD candidate for chancellor in 2009; insiders tell us contingency planning for a potential run has already begun. END SUMMARY. Transatlantic Relations and Military Presence -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Beck characterized the German-U.S. relationship as bound by "deep emotional ties" formed during the immediate postwar period which have continued despite occasional political differences. He welcomed U.S. military expansion/investment at Ramstein and Spangdahlem airbases, but voiced concern over the future of Baumholder. (NOTE: Baumholder is a U.S. Army training site in Rheinland-Pfalz whose future is uncertain under current force restructuring plans. In the event of U.S. army pullout, Rheinland-Pfalz has asked the German government to transform Baumholder into a civil-military training site, e.g. to train for peace-keeping duties and available for use by German, U.S., and third-country units, but it is unclear whether German federal authorities will proceed with the plan. END NOTE.) ¶3. (SBU) Calling Ramstein a central hub for the U.S., Europe and the Middle East, Beck characterized Baumholder as an important component of the military's operations in the region. During his recent trip to NATO headquarters in Brussels, he mentioned his interest in the U.S. maintaining a strong profile in Germany. He also expressed a desire that Congressional delegations meet with him or other German officials, whenever possible, as they transit the region or visit Ramstein/Landstuhl. ¶4. (U) Beck welcomes his increased contact with Ambassador Timken, as a result of the time he spends in Berlin in his role as national SPD chairman. Beck says he plans to visit the U.S. within the next year. German EU/G-8 Presidencies -------------- ¶5. (U) Beck sees three major issues on the German agenda for the first half of 2007: -- The European Constitution: Beck conceded that due to obstacles such as the May presidential election in France, this goal cannot be fully realized during the German EU Presidency. However, according to him, Germany must reach out to constitutional treaty opponents (such as France, Netherlands, others) to convince them of the merits of the constitution. -- Europe needs a social dimension -- There is a need to re-connect the people of Europe with the ideals that European unity stands for (including solidarity, stability, and freedom according to Beck). In addition, Brussels must carefully think through the consequences of its decisions and be more accessible to the people. -- Neighborhood Policy -- Europe needs to improve its relationship with its southern and eastern neighbors, Russia in particular. ¶6. (U) On the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome (March 25), Beck argues that Germany must take advantage of this commemoration to remind Europeans of the ideals of Europe and how far they have come in the last half-century. As for the G-8, Beck hopes that Germany can inject new momentum into the WTO and global economic discussions. Bilateral economic agreements are a less-satisfactory solution according to Beck. He also believes that regulation of international finance needs to be improved, but offered no substantive solutions. Is Beck Positioning Himself for Chancellor Run in 2009? -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) As national SPD chairman, M-P Beck claims the right of first refusal for a run as the SPD candidate for chancellor in 2009. Rheinland-Pfalz state chancellery insiders tell us that Beck considers Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit, Federal Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel, and Federal Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck to be his main competitors at this point. Although Beck has been somewhat evasive about his plans for 2009, a Beck associate told us privately that a special committee has been formed at the R-P state FRANKFURT 00000671 002 OF 002 chancellery to start preparing for a potential campaign -- a campaign that, according to the contact, will focus on economic and reform issues. Members of the state parliament and political insiders also told us that they are convinced Beck will make a run for chancellor in 2009. SPD HQ staff has told Berlin that they also consider Beck to be the likely chancellor candidate in 2009. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Beck and his cabinet in Mainz have generally been favorable to the U.S. and recognize the economic importance of the significant U.S military presence in the state (including Ramstein, Spangdahlem and Landstuhl Regional Medical Center). On the domestic side, Beck continues to maintain a tight grip on the SPD in Rheinland-Pfalz and does not appear ready to hand the reins over to a successor. Though time remains before the 2009 national elections and Beck has yet to announce his plans, his inner circle has already begun the preparations for a potential run at the chancellorship. A significant strategy question facing Beck will be whether to step down as M-P, should he be named chancellor candidate, or remain in office through the election -- having been re-elected as M-P last year, his term lasts until 2011. Should he step down, a national defeat could leave him with nowhere to go. ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. POWELL