THE SPD AFTER ITS HAMBURG CONVENTION: THE VIEW FROM NRW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSSELDORF 000033 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: THE SPD AFTER ITS HAMBURG CONVENTION: THE VIEW FROM NRW DUSSELDORF 00000033 001.2 OF 002 Sensitive but Unclassified -- Not for Internet Distribution ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the weeks following the national convention in Hamburg, senior NRW SPD leaders are projecting a renewed sense of confidence as the state party retained its major national role and emerged more unified after a period of internal dissonance. State SPD chair Hannelore Kraft spun the party's decision to amend its Agenda 2010 as a "relatively minor correction that leaves about 90% of the Agenda intact" and a "return to our roots," a view we have found widespread especially among Ruhr area mayors. Whether the "bounce" for the NRW SPD emerging from the Hamburg convention will strengthen the state party's profile against a strong CDU-FDP coalition and popular Minister President, as well as the growing influence of the Left Party, remains to be seen. End Summary. Strong NRW Influence Continues on SPD National Level -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a recent conversation with the CG, SPD NRW Chair Hannelore Kraft, who was reelected to the National Executive Board with one of the best election results, said the convention provided "good signals and a boost for the party in NRW." She pointed out that 13 of the party's 45 Executive Board Members are from NRW, and with the election of Finance Minister and former NRW Minister-President Peer Steinbrueck as National Vice Chairman and Barbara Hendricks as party Treasurer, two of the six inner leaders are also from her state. She attributed the strong results for NRW to the fact that "for the first time in party history the delegation acted as a more or less unified block." NRW SPD sees Beck as Undisputed Party Leader -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Kraft expressed strong support for Kurt Beck, commenting that "although not especially media-savvy, he has always enjoyed strong support from rank-and-file members." She contrasted Beck with Franz Muentefering, whom she called "a rational person, basing his politics on reason and economic facts." Kraft also said that it would be Beck's decision to stand in 2009, adding that the convention demonstrated his ability "to appeal to people's emotions, not their intellect," and that "he is not polarizing and has a natural gift to unite people." Cologne SPD MdB Lale Akgun predicted to Pol/Econ Officer that Beck would be the party's next candidate for Chancellor, calling him "a man of the people, who has what it takes to find widespread support in the electorate." Local NRW SPD Leaders Call Convention a "Return to Roots" -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Local NRW SPD politicians also expressed satisfaction with the Hamburg convention. Four SPD mayors from the Ruhr area spun the results to the CG as less of a "shift to the left" than a "return to roots." Kraft also rejected the notion that the convention amounted to a "swing to the left." She called the change in the unemployment benefit regulation only "cosmetic," to correct what many people in the party considered a social injustice. It was necessary to give the rank and file the feeling that its leadership listened to them and addressed their concerns. Muenterfering opposed the change because he feared it would open the flood gates to a complete revision of the Agenda 2010, an assessment she disagreed with, arguing that "deep down the party knows Agenda 2010 was absolutely necessary," despite the fact that they were not enthusiastic about it and wanted "injustices corrected." She assessed that overall 90% of Agenda 2010 would remain in place. Delegates Younger, More Focused on Environment and "Social Justice" -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Kraft observed that in recent years ecological and social justice themes have gained in importance among convention delegates, who in Hamburg were also younger than in the past. The Deutsche Bahn privatization vote demonstrated strong opposition among delegates to further moves in this direction, in large part because activists from local government had experienced job losses in their areas after such cases in the past. Kraft commented positively on the tone the party leadership had set, the free and open debate, and the fact that debate on critical issues had not been stifled, which had happened in the past. Reactions from NRW-based businesses -------------- ¶6. Amcham NRW leaders have not expressed concern to us about the main casualties (unemployment benefits and train privatization) from Hamburg, as they do not affect their DUSSELDORF 00000033 002.2 OF 002 operations directly, but they have told us they are watching for signs of a further erosion of Agenda 2010. The Cologne-based Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft, one of Germany's leading economic research institutes (associated with BDI),criticized the decision to extend unemployment benefits for older employees, pointing out that it would cost up to two billion Euros annually and arguing that the indirect costs would be even higher. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The modifications in Hamburg to Agenda 2010 are clearly popular among the party base in NRW as representing a "return to SPD roots." State party leaders' attempts to present the changes as "not much of a shift to the left" seem more of an attempt to reassure the pro-business wing of the party and others anxious about potential change in national policy. The NRW SPD rank and file only reluctantly supported Agenda 2010, while party leaders are concerned about the potential support for Die Linke. It is thus not surprising that the party is trying to firm up its base. Whether the "bounce" emerging from the Hamburg convention will strengthen the NRW SPD against a strong CDU-FDP coalition and popular Minister President, as well as the growing influence of the Left Party (septel),remains to be seen. One of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's chief aides told DCM recently that he didn't think it would. End Comment. ¶8. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. BOYSE