10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF TAJIKISTAN'S PEACE ACCORDS: BUT IS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000989

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: 10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF TAJIKISTAN'S PEACE ACCORDS: BUT IS
THERE REAL RECONCILIATION?

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: At a two-day UN-hosted conference on ten
years of peace and reconciliation in Tajikistan, Tajik and
foreign dignitaries discussed the roles they played in ending
Tajikistan's 1992-1997 civil war. Instead of using the
conference as an opportunity to expand political dialogue and
pluralism, Tajik President Rahmon celebrated the end of a
conflict he feels is far in the past. Many of the delegates
from the United Nations and other organizations missed an
opportunity to prod Tajikistan to pursue a meaningful
reconciliation, ignoring the fact that the Tajik government
continues to shut opposition voices out of power. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The government and the international community can be
proud of creating and maintaining peace in Tajikistan after the
civil war. Speaker after speaker at the June 25-26
International Conference on the 10th Anniversary of the General
Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord in
Tajikistan echoed the government's conviction that
reconciliation had been achieved. President Rahmon pinned
medals on the UN special envoy and dignitaries from neighboring
countries involved in ending the conflict. Many paid homage to
the late opposition leader Said Abdullo Nuri for his role in
facilitating the peace process. Former U.S. Ambassador Grant
Smith also received the Medal of Friendship.


3. (U) The Iranian Charge d'Affaires, Ahmad Ajalulion, used
his June 25 comments to criticize foreign influence in Central
Asia, particularly from the United States and Western Europe.
Ajalulion said that foreign forces used terrorism to justify
their presence, but in fact created a more fertile environment
for terrorists. Building upon this commentary, he called on
foreign forces to reduce pressure on Iran.


THE REALITY OF PEACE


4. (U) Only a few speakers challenged the conference's general
acceptance of the status quo as a meaningful peace. Arno
Siefert, a Senior Researcher at the OSCE Center in Hamburg who
previously served as a political officer at the OSCE center in
Dushanbe argued that the government's suppression of political
pluralism was leading to a total absence of democratic
expression, which would only continue to marginalize those who
do not agree with the government. Seifert pointed out that
growing social and economic gaps in Tajikistan may cause serious
conflicts and challenged the government to address regionalism
and clan-based politics.


5. (U) Islamic Renaissance Party Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri and
former United Tajik Opposition leader Akbar Turajonzoda
highlighted some of the shortcomings which have plagued
Tajikistan during the reconciliation period. Despite the
General Agreement dictating the government allocate thirty
percent of elected and appointed government positions to former
opposition members, Turajonzoda noted that in reality only three
to five percent of such positions are held by officials not
aligned with the ruling party. Some conference participants
excused the deficiency by suggesting a lack of former opposition
members qualified to hold additional posts. (Note: No one
raised the issue of shortcomings in Tajikistan's electoral
system that favor the ruling party at the expense of the
opposition. End note.)


6. (U) Kabiri noted that although National Unity Day
commemorates peace, it is a sad day for many who lost family
members and friends in the civil war. He also lamented Nuri's
death in August 2006. Kabiri reiterated Seifert's message that
the ruling party must allow varying viewpoints, either from the
opposition or from within the government, or it risks long-term
instability. He pointed out that although the government had
failed to enforce the thirty percent power-sharing deal, the
Islamic Renaissance Party remained committed to peace, rather
than resorting to violence as other parties might have. He
cautioned that the generation of politicians involved in the
peace negotiations have left the political field, either
voluntarily, by old age or political maneuvering, leaving a new
generation who have forgotten the difficult lessons of civil
war.


PEACE THROUGH ROSE-COLORED GLASSES

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7. (SBU) Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrohon Zarifi reacted to
Kabiri's comments by denying that the democratic process has
stagnated. In front of the entire audience, he sharply chided
Kabiri for speaking at educational and political institutions in
the United States without bothering to engage his "brothers" at
the Tajik Embassy in Washington. (Comment: This is not the
first time Kabiri has received criticism for his speaking
engagements in the West. Some conference participants,
including Kabiri himself, chuckled at the Foreign Minister's
diatribe which seemed out of place and, if anything, reinforced
the government's intolerance of opposing viewpoints. End
Comment.)


8. (SBU) Tajik government officials chose to deny that internal
political problems exist and wanted instead to concentrate on
their vision of the future, including the need for economic and
hydropower development, rather than discussing the
reconciliation process. (Note: This is fully in line with the
Tajik government's mantra of "economics before politics." End
note.)


9. (SBU) Towards the end of the conference, Vladimir Goryayev,
Acting Director of the UN Political Department's Asia Pacific
Division, crystallized the generally self-congratulatory
attitude that characterized the previous two days, rejecting the
notion that there are still opposing "sides" within the country,
and reminding the audience that Tajikistan is one nation, with
one "side," and with one future.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Whether the government recognizes it
publicly or not, there are those in Tajikistan -- both
mainstream and extremist -- who disagree with government
policies. Unless opposition groups have access to government
and a voice in the power structure, stability and peace remain
tenuous. While Tajikistan has enjoyed ten years of stability
buttressed by slow but steady economic development, Tajik
society lacks the social underpinnings of tolerance that will
ensure its future. We understand that until the last minute,
the government did not want to share the stage with any one from
the former opposition; it did so only under UN pressure. The
inclusion of a few opposition speakers and award for the
deceased Nuri were positive, but the conference, in the end, was
a missed opportunity to look forward. END COMMENT.
JACOBSON