10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF TAJIKISTAN'S PEACE ACCORDS: BUT IS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000989 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI SUBJECT: 10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF TAJIKISTAN'S PEACE ACCORDS: BUT IS THERE REAL RECONCILIATION? DUSHANBE 00000989 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: At a two-day UN-hosted conference on ten years of peace and reconciliation in Tajikistan, Tajik and foreign dignitaries discussed the roles they played in ending Tajikistan's 1992-1997 civil war. Instead of using the conference as an opportunity to expand political dialogue and pluralism, Tajik President Rahmon celebrated the end of a conflict he feels is far in the past. Many of the delegates from the United Nations and other organizations missed an opportunity to prod Tajikistan to pursue a meaningful reconciliation, ignoring the fact that the Tajik government continues to shut opposition voices out of power. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) The government and the international community can be proud of creating and maintaining peace in Tajikistan after the civil war. Speaker after speaker at the June 25-26 International Conference on the 10th Anniversary of the General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord in Tajikistan echoed the government's conviction that reconciliation had been achieved. President Rahmon pinned medals on the UN special envoy and dignitaries from neighboring countries involved in ending the conflict. Many paid homage to the late opposition leader Said Abdullo Nuri for his role in facilitating the peace process. Former U.S. Ambassador Grant Smith also received the Medal of Friendship. ¶3. (U) The Iranian Charge d'Affaires, Ahmad Ajalulion, used his June 25 comments to criticize foreign influence in Central Asia, particularly from the United States and Western Europe. Ajalulion said that foreign forces used terrorism to justify their presence, but in fact created a more fertile environment for terrorists. Building upon this commentary, he called on foreign forces to reduce pressure on Iran. THE REALITY OF PEACE ¶4. (U) Only a few speakers challenged the conference's general acceptance of the status quo as a meaningful peace. Arno Siefert, a Senior Researcher at the OSCE Center in Hamburg who previously served as a political officer at the OSCE center in Dushanbe argued that the government's suppression of political pluralism was leading to a total absence of democratic expression, which would only continue to marginalize those who do not agree with the government. Seifert pointed out that growing social and economic gaps in Tajikistan may cause serious conflicts and challenged the government to address regionalism and clan-based politics. ¶5. (U) Islamic Renaissance Party Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri and former United Tajik Opposition leader Akbar Turajonzoda highlighted some of the shortcomings which have plagued Tajikistan during the reconciliation period. Despite the General Agreement dictating the government allocate thirty percent of elected and appointed government positions to former opposition members, Turajonzoda noted that in reality only three to five percent of such positions are held by officials not aligned with the ruling party. Some conference participants excused the deficiency by suggesting a lack of former opposition members qualified to hold additional posts. (Note: No one raised the issue of shortcomings in Tajikistan's electoral system that favor the ruling party at the expense of the opposition. End note.) ¶6. (U) Kabiri noted that although National Unity Day commemorates peace, it is a sad day for many who lost family members and friends in the civil war. He also lamented Nuri's death in August 2006. Kabiri reiterated Seifert's message that the ruling party must allow varying viewpoints, either from the opposition or from within the government, or it risks long-term instability. He pointed out that although the government had failed to enforce the thirty percent power-sharing deal, the Islamic Renaissance Party remained committed to peace, rather than resorting to violence as other parties might have. He cautioned that the generation of politicians involved in the peace negotiations have left the political field, either voluntarily, by old age or political maneuvering, leaving a new generation who have forgotten the difficult lessons of civil war. PEACE THROUGH ROSE-COLORED GLASSES DUSHANBE 00000989 002.2 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrohon Zarifi reacted to Kabiri's comments by denying that the democratic process has stagnated. In front of the entire audience, he sharply chided Kabiri for speaking at educational and political institutions in the United States without bothering to engage his "brothers" at the Tajik Embassy in Washington. (Comment: This is not the first time Kabiri has received criticism for his speaking engagements in the West. Some conference participants, including Kabiri himself, chuckled at the Foreign Minister's diatribe which seemed out of place and, if anything, reinforced the government's intolerance of opposing viewpoints. End Comment.) ¶8. (SBU) Tajik government officials chose to deny that internal political problems exist and wanted instead to concentrate on their vision of the future, including the need for economic and hydropower development, rather than discussing the reconciliation process. (Note: This is fully in line with the Tajik government's mantra of "economics before politics." End note.) ¶9. (SBU) Towards the end of the conference, Vladimir Goryayev, Acting Director of the UN Political Department's Asia Pacific Division, crystallized the generally self-congratulatory attitude that characterized the previous two days, rejecting the notion that there are still opposing "sides" within the country, and reminding the audience that Tajikistan is one nation, with one "side," and with one future. ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: Whether the government recognizes it publicly or not, there are those in Tajikistan -- both mainstream and extremist -- who disagree with government policies. Unless opposition groups have access to government and a voice in the power structure, stability and peace remain tenuous. While Tajikistan has enjoyed ten years of stability buttressed by slow but steady economic development, Tajik society lacks the social underpinnings of tolerance that will ensure its future. We understand that until the last minute, the government did not want to share the stage with any one from the former opposition; it did so only under UN pressure. The inclusion of a few opposition speakers and award for the deceased Nuri were positive, but the conference, in the end, was a missed opportunity to look forward. END COMMENT. JACOBSON