TAJIK BANKING DINNER TURNS INTO SERIOUS TALK TO RESOLVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000043 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, ECA E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/9/2032 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ETRD TI SUBJECT: TAJIK BANKING DINNER TURNS INTO SERIOUS TALK TO RESOLVE COMMERICAL DISPUTE REF: 06 DUSHANBE 2243 CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Ann Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy, Dushanbe, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In Tajikistan, singing and dancing alongside the President's brother-in-law while discussing business earns the United States diplomatic goodwill. At a private dinner January 8 to talk about banking supervision and economic reform, President Rahmonov's brother-in-law Hasan Sadulloev and the deputy director of the Tajik state Aluminum company (TadAZ), Sherali Kabirov pressed the Ambassador with their side of the Gerald Metals dispute, emphasizing the strides Tajikistan had made in improving the investment climate. The Ambassador underscored the need for TadAZ to communicate directly with Gerald Metals and encouraged a resolution similar to the one made with Norwegian Aluminum giant Norsk Hydro (reftel) in December. Sadulloev and his companions stressed the need for education assistance, particularly in English, and welcomed the establishment of an American Chamber of Commerce in Dushanbe as an important step to attract foreign investment. They thanked the Ambassador for the opportunity "to sit at the same table and talk about real issues" and applauded Embassy participation in the evening's traditional dance and music program. ¶2. (C) Comment: Face time and personal rapport matter a great deal in Tajikistan; the dinner provided an important opportunity to bond with a key member of Rahmonov's inner circle, and some of the most forward-leaning economic officials. Underlining the importance of developing "personal relationships," the Tajik hosts lauded Assistant Secretary Boucher's attendance at the December 24 funeral of Turkmen President Niyazov and his meeting with President Rahmonov. They noted with disappointment that European countries failed to send a representative to Turkmenistan. The United States cannot compete with China or Russian in terms of investment, but we can remain solidly engaged with Tajikistan through personal interaction at all levels, including high-level visitors from Washington. Should Sadulloev participate in the Department's Interanational Visitors Program on banking as hoped-- he has promised to inform us of his schedule within the week-- we ask that Washington give special attention to this influential visitor. ¶3. (C) Norsk Hydro's success may provide a model for Gerald Metals to resolve its dispute with TadAZ, but only if Gerald Metals recognizes that it will need to put in the effort to establish a less confrontational working relationship. Post will meet with TadAZ to flesh out concrete steps to bring the two sides closer together. End Summary and Comment. ¶4. (C) Sadulloev's invitation came in response to the Ambassador's request to discuss his participation in a Banking Supervision International Visitors program. As the head of Tajikistan's largest commercial bank, Orionbank, Sadulloev's influence extends beyond his status as "First Brother-in-Law" -- husband of President Rahmonov's younger sister. Other guests included Mahmadamin Mahmadaminov, head of the Tajik State Savings bank Amonatbank, Sherali Kabirov, Deputy Director of TadAZ, and TadAZ lawyer (and former USAID commercial law project officer) Akbar Muratov. (Comment: Sadulloev and Kabirov are close friends, but Kabirov's presence, along with the TadAZ legal advisor, immediately suggested that the dinner conversation would be about more than banking. End Comment.) DOWN TO BUSINESS: TADAZ ¶5. (C) The discussion quickly turned to TadAZ's recent settlement with Norsk Hydro over a $150 million dispute. Kabirov noted that TadAZ is repaying Norsk with aluminum out of its current profits, and is also suing the London-based trading company Ansol to try to recover some of the lost funds. ¶6. (C) Kabirov asked if he could brief the Ambassador on the state of affairs with Gerald Metals. "I know Gerald Metals has said a lot of bad things about us in Washington, but the money they lost didn't end up in TadAZ's pockets." Gerald Metals signed an agreement with previous TadAZ management and Ansol that Kabirov claims was never valid because it failed to go through an interagency approval process. (Note: One of the major DUSHANBE 00000043 002 OF 002 sticking points between Gerald Metals and the Tajik government has been that the government must honor all contracts signed by state-owned enterprises. End Note.) ¶7. (C) Kabirov noted that Gerald Metals has lost every hearing and appeal to date, in Tajikistan and London, and predicted the upcoming January 18 hearing in Moscow would be no different. He stated clearly that TadAZ was open to negotiating with Gerald Metals, and finding a solution similar to that with Norsk Hydro. Would a phone call with Gerald Metals start the negotiation process? Kabirov wrinkled his nose. "It's too hard to communicate on the phone -- and they've never bothered to come out here." In contrast, he noted that Norsk Hydro visited Dushanbe several times. Sadulloev suggested that during the banking international visitor program in February, he or Mahmadaminov could meet with Gerald Metals and invite them to Dushanbe, "to sit at the table, like we are now," he proposed. ¶8. (C) Kabirov boasted to PolOff about TadAZ's significant accomplishments in 2006. "Not just the Norsk deal," he said. The aluminum plant registered record production, upped salaries by 40%, paid their electricity bills and introduced international standards of bookkeeping and accounting. "We are working towards becoming a real international company," he said with pride. (Note: Kabirov came on board as deputy director in 2004, after the previous director absconded. End Note.) WELCOME, AMCHAM! ¶9. (C) Sadulloev and the others called the establishment of an American Chamber of Commerce an important sign for international investors that Tajikistan was open for business. They brushed off concerns that the Tajik Chamber of Trade and Industry may feel threatened by the American Chamber of Commerce and pose bureaucratic hurdles. "The Tajik Chamber belongs to the old Soviet economic system," said Sadulloev. He agreed the "American Chamber of Commerce" was a brand name that would help draw investors to Dushanbe. "The Tajik Chamber will not oppose this," assured Mahmadaminov. EDUCATION AND ENGLISH ¶10. (C) President Rahmonov placed great importance on educating the next generation of Tajiks, reported Sadulloev. Kabirov believes that English, not Russian, is much more important for Tajik students, and lamented the lack of good English language opportunities in Tajikistan. He praised Kazakhstan for providing thousands of scholarships to Western universities, but noted that the Tajik budget could not support that effort and relied on other countries to help with exchanges. BUSINESS CLIMATE ¶11. (C) The only other guests (in a restaurant rumored to be a Sadulloev favorite for its singers and dancers) were a party of Chinese energy experts, hosted by Sharifhon Samiev, head of Barqi Tojik, the state-owned electrical utility. Sadulloev reported that in addition to the 120 MW Yavan hydropower station project expected to be announced during Rahmonov's January 15-21 visit to China, the Chinese were considering building another four hydropower stations. ¶12. (C) The Ambassador emphasized that the United States could not directly finance infrastructure projects, like the Chinese, but instead tried to attract private investment by helping countries reform their business and investment climates. Sadulloev and the others agreed that corruption and excessive bureaucracy still made Western investors nervous. JACOBSON