ENERGETIC FOREIGN MINISTER FULL OF IDEAS -- PUSHING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000034 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA - FEIGENBAUM AND SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/5/2017 TAGS: PREL EAID EINV ENRG PGOV OVIP TI SUBJECT: ENERGETIC FOREIGN MINISTER FULL OF IDEAS -- PUSHING MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE REF: (A) 2006 DUSHANBE 2200; (B) 2006 DUSHANBE 2229; (C) 2006 DUSHANBE 2095; (D) 2006 DUSHANBE 2019 CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dushanbe, STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Tajik Foreign Minister Zaripov visited the Embassy January 4 to sign the condolence book for President Ford and ended up canceling his follow-on appointments to discuss a number of issues with the Ambassador. Zaripov asked the Embassy's assistance to accelerate and expand U.S. private sector investment in Tajikistan's hydropower sector. The Minister also emphasized his pet project: achieving full Millennium Challenge status for Tajikistan (ref B). Zaripov outlined his plans for reorganizing the Foreign Ministry and pushed for a quick decision on agrement for his replacement as Ambassador to Washington (ref A). Post will report septel on Zaripov's ambitious and positive ideas to maximize coverage of the opening of the U.S. constructed bridge linking Tajikistan and Afghanistan, possibly in August. End summary. Agrement for the new Tajik Ambassador ============================== ¶2. (C) Zaripov pressed us on a decision regarding agrement for Abdujabbor Shirinov as Tajikistan's next ambassador to Washington (ref A). Zaripov explained that President Rahmonov himself is anxious to see the appointment go forward quickly. While Shirinov's appointment to Washington is pending, Rahmonov is holding off on appointing a chief of the newly created Agency to Fight Corruption and Economic Crimes. Shirinov, who led the former Financial Control Board, would be a leading candidate to run that agency if his ambassadorship falls through. The Ambassador explained that we forwarded all the agrement papers immediately to the State Department, but since the nomination happened just before the holiday season, the process was moving slowly. Embassy requests an update from Protocol on the likely timing of a response to the Tajik request for agrement. Energizing the Hydropower Sector ======================== ¶3. (C) Zaripov noted that President Rahmonov met with Pakistani Prime Minster Shaukat Aziz while they were both in Ashgabat for President Niyazov's funeral. According to Zaripov, Shaukat Aziz promised to visit Dushanbe before March. (Note: The Pakistani Ambassador here has told us Islamabad has not decided on dates for a visit. End note.) During the Rahmonov-Aziz meeting, the two leaders focused on hydropower and the eventual transmission of Tajik power through Afghanistan to Pakistan. The two leaders decided between themselves, apparently without the benefit of technical experts, that the proposed 500 kV transmission line should be increased to 750 kV and be extended from Pakistan to India. Zaripov encouraged the Embassy to pressure the American firm AES to step up its activities in Tajikistan. Tajikistan wants AES to build the transmission line (bigger than the 500 kV line discussed previously) and "at least one generation station" as well. The Ambassador explained that the U.S. Government is in touch with AES but cannot drive its decisions. The timetable set at the October energy conference in Dushanbe (ref D) aims for completion of technical and commercial feasibility studies by June. After the studies are completed, AES may decide to invest in a transmission line project, but construction of a hydropower station is a longer term goal and will depend in large part on the investment climate in Tajikistan. Millennium Challenge - Fighting Corruption ================================ ¶4. (C) Zaripov reiterated his desire (ref B) to achieve full Millennium Challenge status for Tajikistan. He joked that he would gladly trade registration of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) (a frequent Embassy request) for Millennium Challenge status, but quickly explained that both issues are related to democratic reform. The Ambassador emphasized that DUSHANBE 00000034 002 OF 003 achieving Millennium Challenge status will require significant efforts in fighting corruption. To establish his own anti-corruption credentials, Zaripov explained that while serving as Ambassador for almost ten years, he has been the highest paid Tajik official, and yet upon returning to Dushanbe he can afford only a one-bedroom apartment. How do his fellow countrymen afford such luxurious homes, he wondered, pointing to some newly constructed mansions visible from the Ambassador's window. Zaripov assured the Ambassador that President Rahmonov was very serious on fighting corruption as evidenced by the creation of the new Agency to Fight Corruption and Economic Crimes and many public and private statements. The Ambassador said more action and actual results will be needed, and Zaripov outlined the president's consideration of a change in the Customs structure. The new Customs chief has promised the president that he will increase official customs revenues this year by $35 million if given sufficient authority to tackle corruption problems. The Ambassador agreed that the Embassy will resend Tajikistan's Millennium Challenge scorecard (ref C) to the Ministry and follow up with working level meetings to design an action plan for Tajikistan to eventually meet the Millennium Challenge criteria. Restructuring the Ministry ================== ¶5. (C) Zaripov explained that his reorganization plans would require approval by the president and the parliament. (Note: the latter is a legal nicety; such questions, including decisions requiring expenditures of resources, are typically in the hands of the presidency. End note.) The Minister's plans include doubling the size of the Tajik diplomatic corps, from 110 foreign service officers to 220. This will allow him to create separate offices, for example, for the Americas, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe. Currently all three important regions are served by a small two-person section -- competent but overstretched. Zaripov is also seeking approval for plans to build a new Foreign Ministry building with conference space and other amenities absent from the current location, which is shared with the Parliament. The building is still in the design phase, but Zaripov is zeroing in on a site near the new presidential palace. The Minister also reported he plans to organize a foreign missions office "similar to the State Department's set-up" to provide a full range of services for the embassies resident in Dushanbe. Expanding on the plans, however, he described a unit more akin to the old Soviet "Dip Corps Directorate" (UpDK) which tightly controlled where diplomats could live, shop, and recreate. COMMENT ========= ¶6. (C) Tajik authorities only half believe us when we explain that the U.S. Government cannot direct private investment toward Tajikistan. We regularly emphasize that only an improvement in the investment climate and tackling the corruption problems will spur significant increases in U.S. investment and business. However, the counter-example of large-scale Chinese and Iranian investment with no apparent conditionality undermines our argument. Russian investors are somewhere in between: Kremlin politics exert an influence, but commercial viability is still a key concern. ¶7. (C) We welcome Zaripov's personal quest to achieve Millennium Challenge status -- the first time any Tajik official has appeared serious about the possibility. It is unclear whether Zaripov understands the significant requirements for improved governance and doubtful he will have the stamina or clout to see through all the necessary reforms. But progress along the way could have real payoffs in terms of improving democratic reform, fighting corruption, and improving the business climate. ¶8. (C) Underneath Zaripov's smooth style, polished by years as the Ambassador to Vienna and Washington, we occasionally glimpse his old KGB training. Perhaps Zaripov sees his proposal for a foreign missions office serving the functions of the Soviet-era "Dip Corps Directorate" (UpDK) -- including close oversight of DUSHANBE 00000034 003 OF 003 foreign diplomats -- as a means to take that function away from the State Committee on National Security. More likely it is simply a case of old-think, in which problems are resolved by exerting more control. Our initial impressions of Zaripov as minister, however, are largely positive. He is certainly more energetic and proactive than his predecessor had been during recent years; yet his ministry must still compete with other influential ministries including security. Cooperating with Zaripov on his more progressive agenda, such as pursuit of the Millennium Challenge goals and encouraging investment, may open up some opportunities for real reform. JACOBSON