NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001724 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR T, NEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017 TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM IR TI SUBJECT: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM - DEMARCHE DELIVERED TO TAJIKISTAN REF: SECSTATE 162558 Classified By: Amb. Tracey Ann Jacobson, 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Government of Tajikistan, while concerned about Iran's nuclear programs, is unlikely to publicly support calls for Iran to stop Uranium enrichment. Iranian investment and business ties are more important to Tajikistan, and the Government of Tajikistan will not jeopardize them. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Political/Economic Section Chief delivered reftel demarche to the Tajik Ministry of Foreign Affairs, North American Affairs Director Ismatullo Nasredinnov, on December ¶4. Nasreddinov could not offer an official response, but said he would bring the demarche to the attention of the First Deputy Minister immediately following our meeting. Foreign Minister Zarifi is in Japan with President Rahmon until late on December 5 or early December 6. Nasreddinov said he would ensure they also reviewed the demarche. -------------- Iran Doesn't Want to Hear From Us -------------- ¶3. (C) Nasreddinov commented that Tajik President Rahmon had urged President Ahmadinejad, at a meeting in summer 2007, to cooperate to the maximum extent possible with the IAEA and the UN, in order to avoid having the nuclear issue destabilize the region. Nasreddinov added that within the past week Tajikistan had received a letter from the Iranian government explaining that its objectives in the nuclear sphere were entirely peaceful. Nasreddinov did not know whether Tajikistan had made an official reply to that letter yet. ¶4. (C) Nasreddinov said that Tajikistan sought a nuclear-free zone in central and south Asia, including in Iran, as the region had sufficient hydropower potential to make nuclear power redundant (Note: Foreign Minister Zarifi contradicted this position on November 12, when he told reporters that Tajikistan supported Iran's right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy). Nasreddinov also said that the Iranian government had been "very touchy" whenever Tajik officials have raised the nuclear issue with them. Nasreddinov believed that the Iranians did not wish to hear advice from Tajikistan on this matter, as Tajikistan does not have nuclear power or related facilities. He suggested that Iran was unlikely to take seriously Tajik advice on the nuclear front. ¶5. (C) Pol/Econ Chief requested that the Minister meet with Ambassador Jacobson to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue further. Nasreddinov replied that the Minister and President Rahmon would be leaving Dushanbe again on December 9 for Ashgabat, and would return to Dushanbe about fours days later. Nasreddinov would try to get a meeting for the Ambassador with the Minister during the two working days he will be in Dushanbe this week, but was not sure this would be possible. -------------- Comment: Polite Sympathy, Action Unlikely -------------- ¶6. (C) In addition to the ties deriving from a common language and regional proximity, Iran is an important participant in Tajikistan infrastructure projects; the Anzob pass tunnel connecting Dushanbe with northern Tajikistan, and the Sangtuda-2 hydropower plant. The Iranian Minister of Energy was recently in Tajikistan looking at more opportunities in power generation. An Iranian bank and Iranian businesses are active in Tajikistan, and there are Iranian-funded schools, cultural institutions, and at least one humanitarian relief organization. Government officials Qone humanitarian relief organization. Government officials and foreign policy experts have commented to us that they do not wish to see Iran develop nuclear weapons or even civilian nuclear power, which would compete with Tajik hydropower. They want Iranian business and investment, and consider the main danger posed by Iran to be in the area of religious radicalism. With Tajikistan's difficulty in attracting foreign investment, and its extreme infrastructure needs, public official opposition to Iran's nuclear program by Tajikistan seems very unlikely. End Comment. JACOBSON