ALL THE KING'S MEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001680 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV TI SUBJECT: ALL THE KING'S MEN REF: DUSHANBE 1423 CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Hushek, Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Embassy Dushanbe, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: One year after President Rahmon's re-election, Tajiks from the Kulyob region hold approximately two-thirds of the top positions in government. While this consolidation of power has been ongoing for several years, some in President Rahmon's party have started to question whether his top advisors are serving the country - and the President - well. End summary. Consolidation ========== ¶2. (C) Prior to his re-election in November 2006, President Rahmon appointed Tajiks from Kulyob, the President's home district, to a disproportionately high number of positions in the government. During the year since his reelection, the President has continued to consolidate his hold over the government by ensuring that Kulyobis hold most of the top ministerial, law enforcement, and revenue-related positions. Kulyobis now head approximately two-thirds of all of the state institutions, including the Ministries of Interior, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Defense, and Energy (the President's father in law, no less),and the State Committees on National Security and on Investment. Kulyobis head the prosecutorial service, the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Economic Court. Fourteen of Tajikistan's 20 ambassadors are from Kulyob. ¶3. (C) President Rahmon has increasingly turned to members of his own family and Tajiks from his home region of Danghara (which is in Kulyob District) to fill sensitive government positions. The State Economic Advisor, the Chief of the Presidential Administration, and State Advisor on Human Resources, are Dangharans. One of the President's sons-in-law is the Deputy Minister of Finance. ¶4. (C) In the Ministry the embassy knows best, Foreign Affairs, the pattern of regional favoritism is striking. Several ambassadorial positions have gone to Kulyobis: Brussels, Moscow, Berlin, and Astana. New ambassadors to the United States, Japan, and the OSCE are from Danghara, the President's home village. (The new Ambassador to Japan was previously the Chairman of the Committee on Youth, Sports, and Tourism). Over the course of the year, President Rahmon has placed two of his daughters in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one as the Chief of Consular Affairs (in charge of visa decisions for troublesome foreigners),the other in the Department for International Organizations. Poor Political Management ==================== ¶5. (C) It is commonly reported in our discussions with Tajik interlocutors, even those close to the president, that Rahmon is strengthening his position through nepotism, and that he has not focused on appointing competent managers to key governmental posts. Some observers in Tajikistan have accused government officials of being poor political managers who are out of touch with reality (reftel). This criticism is based on what they see as an ill-guided policy on religion, poor management of the economy, and failure to control corruption. ¶6. (C) Members of the President's own political party, the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan, have begun commenting to embassy officers that the President's inner circle prevents him from effectively managing the country. In a late-October meeting, Muso Asozoda, head of the party's Dushanbe office, told PolOff that the President has surrounded himself with "people who do not tell him the truth," and that President Rahmon and his advisors have become "divorced from reality." He said the President had attempted to take control of too many aspects of the government, and that he "cannot possibly fulfill all of the commitments he has made." ¶7. (C) Asozoda said that the government's economic policy had failed on several fronts, and that corruption remains a major problem. However, his views were not totally contrary to the party line. Regarding the government's increasingly restrictive religious policy, Asozoda said that the government can justly control religious life in Tajikistan. PolOff asked Asozoda why DUSHANBE 00001680 002 OF 002 so many officials refused to speak with international representatives about the restrictions, and why there had been so little transparency surrounding the new draft law on religion. Asozoda suggested that government officials are afraid of "making a mistake" by saying the wrong thing. Changes, But Not Soon ================== ¶8. (C) Asozoda said that many in the party recognize that President Rahmon has not surrounded himself with competent advisors, and predicted that changes would be made to the President's inner circle. He cautioned, however, that these changes would not come soon. Recent news articles reported that Prime Minister Oqil Oqilov will have to step down in February when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 63 years. Many of the contenders, according to the press, are Kulyobis. ¶9. (C) Comment: Asozoda's comments are consistent with our observations that Tajiks are increasingly discontent with the direction in which the country is going on a range of issues. The economic situation for most Tajiks has deteriorated over the past year, especially as the cost of basic foodstuffs has more than doubled in the last few months. While we have heard criticism from government supporters, it is rare to hear criticism in such a direct manner against President Rahmon's inner circle from a member of the President's party. End Comment. HUSHEK