TAJIKISTAN'S 3,600 MEGAWATT MIRAGE - ROGUN DAM PROJECT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001651 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S 3,600 MEGAWATT MIRAGE - ROGUN DAM PROJECT DUSHANBE 00001651 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Government of Tajikistan is still actively seeking a partner with the estimated $2 billion needed to complete the 3,600 megawatt Rogun dam. During a November 10 visit to the site, project engineers gave EmbOffs a tour and their perspectives of the thirty-year-old project. They said the Russian conglomerate RusAl had invested $3.5 million in the past three years for dormitory buildings and basic infrastructure. In the past thirty years over 60 kilometers of tunnels were designed, with 30 more ready to transport earth and rock quarried from the valley walls. The engineers also said that in the Soviet era, Uzbekistan's National Academy of Sciences calculated that the reservoir would also be able to provide enough water for Uzbekistan's irrigation needs. Tajikistan's attempt to complete the dam remains a major source of bitterness with Uzbekistan. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) About 60 miles east of Dushanbe in a narrow gorge of the Karotegin Mountains, the Soviets began planning a dam upstream from Nurek on the Vaksh River in 1976. Construction of the Rogun Dam halted in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and resumed about three years ago when the Russian aluminum conglomerate RusAl financed preparatory construction phases. The Government of Tajikistan publicly announced the termination of that agreement with RusAl in August of this year. Media speculated that contract was cancelled because the Russian side wanted to build a 285 meter concrete dam rather than the 335 meter earth and rock dam that the Tajik side preferred. The Russian side was interested in a dam which could power an aluminum smelter; the Tajiks wanted a dam that would help provide electricity to internal and external users. There were also disagreements over the value of the Soviet era contribution to the project which would ultimately count in favor of the Tajik government's share of the ownership. ¶3. (SBU) Ukmatsho Shirinbekov, chief engineer of the Rogun project since 2000, spent a few hours November 10 showing EmbOffs how much of the project had been finished and explaining what needed to be done. Shirinbekov said RusAl had invested $3.5 million in the past three years for a few dozen four-story pre-fabricated dormitory buildings on the west side of the dam site. (Note: RusAl claims to have invested over $50 million in the project, but this figure may include the Hyatt hotel and business center RusAl is constructing in Dushanbe.) Shirinbekov pulled out detailed engineering diagrams of 90 kilometers of tunnels to transport earth and rock quarried from the valley walls and to house underground generating units. He said another 30 kilometers of tunnels started in the 1990's were almost finished and two generators were "70% complete." In August, the Tajik government announced it would spend $5.5 million and possibly allocate an additional $50 million to further construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station. ¶4. (SBU) Shirinbekov repeated some statistics reported widely in the Tajik press about the proposed project: the dam will be 335 meters tall and 1.5 kilometers long; the 17 billion cubic meter reservoir will take 7-12 years to fill once the 71 million cubic meter earth-and-rock fill is in place; in the fall and winter the water will pass over the dam at 120 cubic meters/second and at up to 2,000 cubic meters/second during the spring/summer runoff season; the power output of the six generators will be 3,600 megawatts, each one producing more power than either of the planned Sangtuda dams, making Rogun the largest in Tajikistan. (The Nurek dam generates 2,700 megawatts.) With total current installed capacity in Tajikistan of a little over 4,000 megawatts, he said that the power shortage in Tajikistan is 1,000 megawatts in winter time, so that the excess of power generated by Rogun would be available for export to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Talco, the state-owned aluminum smelter, uses between 40-60% of Tajik electricity produced in the country. ¶5. (SBU) In the dilapidated engineering headquarters, two of Shirinbekov's colleagues asked if EmbOffs were "technical experts or people with money" before showing decades-old engineering diagrams documenting the plans. They said that in the Soviet era experts from Uzbekistan's National Academy of Sciences had calculated that when the reservoir reaches full capacity, it would provide enough water for Uzbekistan's irrigation needs. When EmbOff asked if Uzbek President Karimov knew of this benefit, Shirinbekov said Karimov opposed the dam because he did not want a neighbor wealthier than Uzbekistan. DUSHANBE 00001651 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Comment. Although Shirinbekov was generous with statistics and plans that are already well publicized, he paused for several seconds before providing his own name and cell phone number when EmbOffs asked, in case questions arose later. The willingness to cooperate is heartily extended when the tantalizing possibility exists that financing may follow. The week before, Shirinbekov had given the same tour to a World Bank team in Tajikistan for the Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation conference. There has been much talk lately of an international consortium to fund the dam's construction, or of Iranian or Russian parties becoming strategic investors; nothing definite has appeared; so far all is just talk. Uzbek resistance to the Rogun dam and other disagreements over water sharing permeate the two countries' relationship. End Comment. ¶7. (U) In parting, Shirinbekov apologized for not being able to offer tea, a Tajik custom and point of pride. The town had no electricity to boil the water. JACOBSON