BEWARE OF GARM! WINTER IN CENTRAL TAJIKISTAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000162 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EAID EAGR ELAB ENRG PGOV PHUM TI SUBJECT: BEWARE OF GARM! WINTER IN CENTRAL TAJIKISTAN REF: A) DUSHANBE 0139 B) 06 DUSHANBE 827 DUSHANBE 00000162 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) Introduction: Jan 22-24 EmbOffs visited the Rasht Valley in central Tajikistan to get a taste of rural life in the winter. A series of cables surveys border conditions (Ref A), the economic and social situation, health needs and assistance programs in central Tajikistan. End Introduction. The Icy Road East -------------- ¶2. (U) Local Tajiks told EmbOffs to wait until summer to travel to Rasht Valley, citing warnings about perilous road conditions in the mountains. The town of Garm, six hours northeast from Dushanbe on a principal road leading through the country and to Kyrgyzstan, is best visited in May. Undaunted, on Jan 22 EmbOffs packed into their vehicles loaded with ready-to-eat meals, sleeping bags and bottled water, and headed to Garm. ¶3. (U) EmbOffs enjoyed blazing snow-covered scenery as Embassy drivers slowly maneuvered through icy mountain roads at 25-30 kilometers per hour. Occasionally, men from villages dressed in furry hats and beards came up to shovel dirt on the mountain paths to provide traction for passers-by. Vehicles small and large maneuvered between rockslides on the icy roads, carrying people and goods, such as new Chinese minivans, into the country. With snow piled high all around, traffic and life move on in central Tajikistan. ¶4. (U) Rasht Valley comprises seven districts with an overall population of over 350,000. (Note: EmbOffs did not actually notice a "valley." Valley implies a large flat area, while the Rasht Valley consists of a road between the mountains. End Note.) The small rehabilitated airport in Garm operates only in summer, while camels are still used as transport in Jirgitol District further up the valley. Garm sits in the center of Rasht district, a capital of 14,000 people. The dead economy has forced much of the population to seek work abroad, while the remaining population relies on foreign assistance, remittances, and small-scale agricultural production. No Electricity and No Connection -------------- -- ¶5. (U) Rasht Valley receives two to four hours of electricity per day from mid-October through mid-April. People in the valley use coal from Nazarailok, 120 km from Rasht, for heat. Each family uses up to four tons of coal each winter, at $150 per ton. The Chairman of Rasht District Mahmadsharif Tolibov believes that energy supplies will improve after the launch of the Sangtuda-1 hydropower station. In addition, Russian construction of a hydropower station at Rogun, or Chinese construction of a Shurab hydropower station at the merging point of the Hingob and Surhob rivers would also provide energy resources and new jobs for the region. ¶6. (U) Rasht District lacks a single radio station, and boasts one bi-weekly newspaper, Navidi Rasht. Newspapers from Dushanbe often arrive weeks late. Approximately 50 families (of 14,000 people) in Garm have satellite dishes, although without electricity, even the satellite owners cannot watch television. There is little public Internet access in the district -- a U.S.-funded site is an exception -- and few books available in Russian or English languages. ¶7. (U) At School Number 1 in Garm, shivering pupils bundled in coats dutifully wrote in their notebooks. Low salaries averaging 20 USD per month have led to a nationwide shortage of teachers, and class sizes ranged from 35-45 students. The Asian Development Bank and the Japanese Development Agency both provided assistance to the school, with basic improvements in the building evident. The active parents' association paid for electrical upgrades and for heating coal. The school's director, Sharipov Davlat, asked EmbOffs for assistance in purchasing new classroom furniture and textbooks. A local NGO leader warned EmbOffs that local youth face a crisis without development opportunities. DUSHANBE 00000162 002.2 OF 003 How do you like them (Garm) apples? -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Tajiks love the flavorful Garm apples, and Rasht District produces up to ten thousand tons of apples each year. However, with no food processing manufacturers and poor storage facilities, farmers lose up to 50% of their harvest, often giving it to cattle. In this non-cotton-growing agricultural region, farmers grow potatoes and other vegetables, raise cattle, and keep bees. The region lacks agricultural equipment, however, and Rasht District Chairman Tolibov suggested to EmbOffs that donors provide tractors to farmers instead of training. ¶9. (U) Rasht Valley lacks capital to spur economic growth, and the persistent electricity shortages make the region unattractive to outside investors. Despite sitting on a major trade route, only small business trading occurs in the valley. Several entrepreneurs told EmbOffs they want to produce high-quality cashmere wool, but they lack investment capital. Irrigation systems lie in disrepair with no funds or electricity to rehabilitate them. Labor remittances account for more than 50% of local income, and in the Tajikobod district for example, 4,000 of the 33,000 population work in Russia, bringing in $10 million per year, according to the Mountain Societies Development Support Program, an Aga Khan Development Network agency active in the region. Local Governance Programs in Rasht Valley -------------- ¶10. (U) Two major donors in the Rasht Valley are the United Nations Development Program and the Mountain Societies Development Support Program. Each has spent roughly $10 million in Rasht Valley since 1996. These two donors have created a web of local governance support programs in Rasht Valley that bring civil society and local government together. The Mountain Societies Development Support Program created 474 organizations at the village level, involving 58,000 people, to coordinate community issues. (Comment: The head of the Mountain Societies Development Support Program, Muhammadi Sharipov, is considered the second most important person in Rasht Valley, after the regional governor. End Comment). The United Nations Development Program works one level higher with its new 36 Jamoat (District) Support Centers, providing each with $30,000 per year for micro-lending, civil support and infrastructure projects. In addition, Jamoat officials receive training and technical assistance. These two programs will provide an excellent basis for the new USAID Local Governance program. Economic Development Programs -------------- ¶11. (U) Donor projects offer the most basic economic training and infrastructure development. A German Development Service (German version of the Peace Corps) advisor runs a business incubator in Garm and provides business development services to entrepreneurs who struggle with basic market concepts. For example, the handicrafts dealer offered his goods as gifts to visiting EmbOffs several times while the advisor repeatedly admonished him and insisted he accept payment for his products. ¶12. (U) Donor activities complement each other, as the FirstMicroFinance Bank (also a part of the Aga Khan Development Network) provides credits to farmers, and Mountain Societies Development Support Program activities include irrigation projects and cattle breeding. The new USAID AgLinks project will stimulate linkages between market-driven producers and processors and retailers of agricultural products, and also build local capacity, providing needed assistance to this struggling region. ¶13. (U) Comment: Geography and poverty conspire against this region, which was a hotbed of the opposition during the civil war. The Governor seemed uninterested in hearing about new USG-funded economic development, agricultural and governance programs, perhaps feeling like he's heard it all before. He DUSHANBE 00000162 003.2 OF 003 adamantly maintained, however, that the President would solve the region's energy problems in the next year or two. EmbOffs did not ask the question what would happen if the energy shortages continue. End Comment. JACOBSON