TAJIKISTAN - ANOTHER RUMOR OF REVOLT

SECRET DUSHANBE 001385

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN - ANOTHER RUMOR OF REVOLT


CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Ann Jacobson, Ambassador, Dushanbe, State
Dept.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b)


1. (C) Summary: A former member of Parliament says that he is
organizing a revolt. We doubt he has the means to make this
happen, but rumors of uprisings and/or invasions from Uzbekistan
have cropped up repeatedly over the past year. The Government
of Tajikistan may try to profit from these rumors by seeking
more assistance from us. End Summary.


2. (C) The latest rumor of revolt in Tajikistan comes from
Sayfiddin Turaev, ex-member of parliament and former cabinet
minister. He met with embassy political assistant (an old
friend and colleague) on September 20, and told him that he was
helping to organize a nationwide revolt against the government
of President Rahmon. According to Turaev, he has been
organizing the revolt for the past four years, and has been
working with "influential Tajiks abroad" and various "warlords"
around the country.


3. (C) Turaev said the revolt would begin in Tursonzoda, on the
Uzbek border west of Dushanbe, and in the southern Khatlon
oblast, along its border with Uzbekistan, where rebels will
attack National Guard units. They will then initiate operations
around Dushanbe and in Gorno-Badakhshan. The group planned to
launch its rebellion earlier, but had been "betrayed" by Mirzo
Ziyoev, former commander of the United Tajik Opposition forces.
They were now awaiting an event, such as a protest or other
civil disturbance, to use as a pretext to begin their revolt.
Turaev added that he knew of another group which planned to
launch an armed rebellion, but was delaying until after Ramadan.



4. (C) Turaev, 62 years old, was elected Deputy Chairman of
Parliament in 1992, but later fled the country during the civil
war. He had also been Minister for Public Services the Tajik
Soviet Republic in the 1980s. He tried to run for President in
1991 and 1999, but both times was barred because he could not
gather enough signatures to get on the ballot. He is now head
of a private textile company. He said the Prosecutor General
has prepared criminal charges against him related to his
business activities and is holding the threat of prosecution
over him to dissuade him from reentering politics.


5. (C) Turaev did not offer more information on his plans. He
sought the meeting with our political assistant, but did not ask
for any support from the U.S. Government or for a meeting with
U.S. officials. We do not believe that Turaev has the
financial resources to organize a large scale uprising against
the Government, and his business may be failing.


6. (S) Comment: While we remain unconvinced that Turaev has a
viable organization to rebel against the Government, this
information fits into a pattern of rumors about planned revolts
which have been circulating for the past year or so, all
involving actions along the Uzbek border. Regardless of the
factual basis for these rumors, the Tajiks themselves, in each
of the power ministries, truly believe in the Uzbek threat and,
to a lesser extent, the threat posed by internal, former
opposition. These perceived threats impact their internal
policies and allocation of security assets -- with more assets
going to the North/Uzbek border areas than to the South/Afghan
border areas. President Rahmon and other Tajik authorities have
also told USG officials on various occasions that they believe
Uzbekistan will invade Tajikistan. These comments may represent
an effort to get more assistance from the United States, and
Turaev's approach to us could be also be misinformation, aimed
at fueling our worries about Tajikistan's security. End
Comment.

JACOBSON