IRELAND'S VIEWS ON KOSOVO (IN ADVANCE OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 000102 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN KPAL IE SUBJECT: IRELAND'S VIEWS ON KOSOVO (IN ADVANCE OF THE FEBRUARY 12-13 GAERC) REF: A. STATE 13840 ¶B. STATE 12957 Classified By: Embassy Dublin Pol/Econ Chief Joe Young for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Irish Government strongly supports Special Envoy Martii Ahtisaari's efforts in Kosovo and his recommendations for a status solution, which it sees as bringing peace and stability to the whole of the Balkans, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA). While the Irish Government does not want to see undue delay in the process of negotiating the recommendations, it thinks a short delay for a compelling reason would make sense. Ireland believes that EU Member States wish to achieve consensus on their approach to Kosovo. Ireland's bottom line: The EU must band together in the UNSC to produce an unequivocal UNSCR in support of Ahtisaari's recommendations. End summary. ¶2. (C) POLOFF delivered reftel demarches on February 8 to Pat Kelly, European Correspondent, Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and Jim Kelly, Director, Europe Office, Political Division, DFA. (Note: GAERC demarche items, other than Kosovo, are reported septel.) ¶3. (C) Jim Kelly noted that Ireland has consistently been a strong supporter of Special Envoy Ahtisaari's efforts in Kosovo and is pleased with his recommendations for a status solution. Recognizing Serb sensitivities to Kosovo's autonomy, Kelly said he looks forward to the next few weeks of consultation and negotiation as a time during which the people in the Balkans can get used to the idea, and during which Ahtisaari's proposal can be fine-tuned for presentation to the UNSC. He said that Ireland intends to pitch the coming weeks as a period of consultation -- akin to the process that has advanced the peace process in Northern Ireland in recent months. Rather than allowing the debate to hinge on whether the recommendations are anti-Serb, Ireland will cast the debate in terms of how Ahtisaari's recommendations will bring peace and stability to the entire Balkan region. ¶4. (C) Ireland generally sees nothing to be gained by delay in the process of consultation and negotiation, Kelly noted. However, he pointed out that waiting a few additional days for a compelling reason -- say, for the Serbian Parliament to be formed so the negotiating team could be appointed by the Parliament -- would make sense. ¶5. (C) Kelly pointed out that the future of Kosovo is personal for the Irish. Towards summer, as a Framework Nation, Ireland will take over leadership of a section of KFOR and increase its troops on the ground in Kosovo from 210 to nearly 300. ¶6. (C) Among EU Member States, Kelly said, there exists a strong push for consensus on Kosovo. Ireland, in particular, will insist on unity, recognizing that any split within the EU ranks will embolden opponents of Ahtisaari's recommendations, hobble the UNSC, and create dangerous regional uncertainty within the Balkans. Ireland will urge Serbia to cooperate with the UNSC on Kosovo. Nonetheless, Kelly pointed out, any sweeteners for Serbia, such as the resumption of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA),would have to grounded in real Serbian commitments and considered within an all-Balkans context. In the case of the SAA, this would include cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and demonstrated respect for human rights. Kelly indicated that Ireland would oppose letting Serbia off the hook in order to gain cooperation on Kosovo, saying that such action would only perpetuate destabilization in the Balkans. ¶7. (C) When asked about what shadow Russia might cast over the EU deliberations on Kosovo, Kelly predicted that there would be little effect at the GAERC, saying that the real showdown with Russia, if any, will be at the UNSC. He discounted Russian predictions that independence for Kosovo would lead to a surge of independence momentum in Russian regions such as Chechnya. Each conflicted region has a unique set of circumstances at the genesis of its problems, which, he said, has little connection to the difficulties of other regions. ¶8. (C) Ireland's Goal: Kelly said that Ireland wants the EU to band together in the UNSC to produce an unequivocal UNSCR in support of Ahtisaari's recommendations. FOLEY