U/S BURNS SPEAKS ON GULF SECURITY AT DUBAI THINK TANK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBAI 000088 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV OPRC MARR AE IR IS LE SUBJECT: U/S BURNS SPEAKS ON GULF SECURITY AT DUBAI THINK TANK REF: ABU DHABI 0103 DUBAI 00000088 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary. Under Secretary Nicholas Burns spoke to an audience of roughly 100 local officials, academics, and journalists at the independent Dubai-based think tank, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) January 23, after which he took questions from the audience. Burns discussed how the US views the changing landscape in the Middle East, and emphasized four main challenges for US policy in the region: Iraq, Lebanon, Israel/Palestine, and Iran. Burns said the US will continue to work toward a diplomatic solution with Iran, but also emphasized the US commitment to Gulf security in the face of Iranian attempts at regional dominance. U/S Burns said that the US can not and will not walk away from Iraq, as the consequences of doing so would be far worse than the challenges of staying. Burns stated the only way forward in the Israel-Palestinian conflict is to work together to realize the creation of two states and to accept the existence of the state of Israel. The US is prepared, noted Burns, to commit a long-term, financial contribution to support the government of Lebanon against those who wish to destabilize it. The question and answer session featured skeptical, but balanced questions from both guests and media present. The appearance received heavy media coverage in the region (reftel). End Summary. ¶2. U/S Burns spoke for about 20 minutes and then took questions. Burns said that the Middle East has been a vital national interest to the US since World War II and that the US works hard - in conjunction with its partners - to encourage peace and security in the region. U/S Burns emphasized the value of close relations with Gulf countries, and affirmed that the US is a trustworthy and reliable partner. Burns said that the Middle East will continue to be a particular focus for President Bush in his final two years in office. The US faces four main challenges in the Middle East: Iraq, Lebanon, a solution to the Israel/Palestine issue and Iran. Iran -------------- ¶3. U/S Burns said that the greatest challenge facing US foreign policy is the formation of a productive working relationship with Iran. Burns reiterated that the US has no argument with the people of Iran, and in fact supports cross-cultural exchanges and greater people-to-people understanding. U/S Burns 
expressed hope for rapprochement with the people of Iran, and someday the government of Iran, although that is not possible at this time. U/S Burns listed three key issues of concern regarding Iran: 1) the US and the majority of the international community are convinced that Iran intends to produce nuclear weapons; 2) Iran continues to be the central banker for terrorism; 3) Iran's efforts to dominate the Gulf region are counterproductive for regional security. While noting that the US continues to work toward a diplomatic solution on the nuclear issue, Burns emphasized that if its interests in the region are threatened, the US will protect them. ¶4. On Iran's nuclear program, Burns asserted that it is clear the world community believes Iran's nuclear program is designed to produce nuclear weapons - an outcome, said Burns that the global community cannot accept if we want peace in the Middle East. Burns reiterated that the P5+1 June 2006 offer to negotiate and assist Iran with building a civil nuclear program is still on the table, but that Iran must suspend enrichment to begin negotiations. UN sanctions could tighten as of February 21, warned Burns, depending on IAEA Secretary General El-Baradei's scheduled report to the UN. ¶5. Media coverage on the event focused heavily on Burns' Iran comments. Responding to questions on the "unilateral" nature of US policy in the Middle East, Gulf News quoted Burns as saying, "the whole world is supporting the US stand toward Iran, except for Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus and Syria." Suspension of enrichment activity is not just a US condition. The IAEA and the UNSC are calling for suspension, said Burns. He reminded the audience that the UN Security Council vote on UNSCR 1737 was 15 to 0 -- universal judgment was passed. Burns told the audience that if it disagreed with the sanctions policy, it disagreed with most of the world. Iranian press called Burns' commitment to civil nuclear policy a "moderation" or shift in USG rhetoric. Iran and Gulf security -------------- ¶6. A number of press questions focused on Gulf security and the DUBAI 00000088 002.2 OF 002 impact of US Iran policy on the Gulf. U/S Burns said the US is cooperating with regional and international partners to prevent arms sales, and seeking assistance in preventing nuclear and missile technology from reaching Iran. He expressed the hope that countries that trade with Iran will send a message through their trade policy that Iran cannot continue its aggressive behavior. Responding to a question about the USG "Iran office" in Dubai, U/S Burns said that it is an office within the US consulate engaged in normal diplomatic activity, including addressing the enormous interest of Iranians to travel to the US. It also encourages people-to-people and cultural exchanges, and works to increase US understanding of Iran. Iraq -------------- ¶7. U/S Burns said that the US cannot and will not walk away from Iraq, as the consequences of doing so would be far worse than the challenges of staying. The US, noted Burns, would like political support from the region and the EU for economic reconstruction and the International Compact. Furthermore, Burns said he hoped that Iran and Syria would be agents of stability in Iraq rather than their current role as divisive forces. As quoted by the Associated Press, Abu Dhabi-based Gulf Negotiations Center Head Mohammed al-Naqbi told Burns, "Iraq is your problem, not the problem of the Arabs. You destroyed a country that had institutions. You handed that country over to Iran. Now you are crying to Europe and the Arabs to help you out of this mess." Burns reiterated that the US will remain committed to assisting the Iraqis overcome sectarian violence as long as the GOI requests US support. Israel/Palestine -------------- ¶8. U/S Burns reminded the audience that George Bush was the first US President to endorse the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. Both Secretary Rice and President Bush, noted U/S Burns, wish to work with Arabs and Israelis to realize the creation of two states that can live together in peace. Audience members questioned the US ability to act as an honest broker between Israel and Palestine. U/S Burns said the only way forward in the Israel-Palestinian conflict is for Arab countries to accept the state of Israel; otherwise the region is resigning itself to another generation of conflict. Lebanon -------------- ¶9. U/S Burns said that the US is prepared to commit to long term support for the government of Lebanon against those who wish to destabilize it. In response to press inquiries regarding what a "Lebanon solution" would look like, U/S Burns alluded to a sizeable US financial contribution that would be made at the January 24 donor's conference on Lebanon. There is international consensus to support the Siniora government, he said, noting that only Syria and Iran stand against peace in Lebanon. SUTPHIN