GCC SUMMIT WRAPS UP IN DOHA WITHOUT NOTABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 001133 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017 TAGS: PREL EFIN GCC IR QA SUBJECT: GCC SUMMIT WRAPS UP IN DOHA WITHOUT NOTABLE ACHIEVEMENTS REF: DOHA 1127 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael A. Ratney, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit officially closed December 4 with a brief and low-key ceremony and with no notable achievements. Neither the Iranian president nor the UAE president attended the closing. (According to press reports, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad departed Doha the morning of December 4 and UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan departed the evening of December 3. Sheikh Khalifa and Ahmedinejad reportedly met the evening of December 3, paving the way for discussions later that evening between their foreign ministers on three UAE islands claimed by Iran.) -------------- -------------- AHMEDINEJAD SCORES ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE BUT LITTLE ELSE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Qatar's former Information Minister and Ambassador to the UN and the United States, Hamad Al-Kuwari, told us December 4 the big news from this GCC Summit was the timing of the latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which strengthened the hand of President Ahmedinejad, in Al-Kuwari's view, as he stood aside the GCC leaders in Doha. Al-Kuwari, a member of the GCC consultative committee, said the U.S. statement weakened the U.S. call for further sanctions against Iran at a pivotal moment. According to Al-Kuwari, GCC leaders and opinion makers noted Ahmedinejad's purposeful omission in his speech at the GCC opening ceremony of Iran's nuclear activities (see reftel for key elements of his address),a subject which he nevertheless took up at his evening press conference of December 3. ¶3. (U) In his press conference, Ahmedinejad reconfirmed that the Iranian nuclear program was for peaceful purposes and that IAEA concerns had been fully addressed. The GCC heads of state, according to GCC Secretary General Abdulrahman bin Hamad Al Attiyah, welcomed Iran's desire to enhance its cooperation with the GCC. Asked about Iran's nuclear plans, he said any nuclear activities which comply with the guidelines of the IAEA are legal, in the eyes of the GCC. ¶4. (C) Despite the feeling that Ahmedinejad's stature was enhanced at the summit, Al-Kuwari told us the GCC leaders did not budge on the Iranians' principal desire: paving the way for Iranian investment in the GCC states and relaxation of travel restrictions on Iranians to GCC countries. It did not help, noted local press commentaries, that the Iranian President referred several times to the "Persian" Gulf in his speech at the opening ceremony, reaffirming suspicions leaders that Iran, and Ahmedinejad in particular, aims to re-establish a "Greater Persia." -------------- -------------- QATAR'S FOREIGN MINISTER SPINS IRANIAN PARTICIPATION -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Qatar's Prime Minister/Foreign Minister, Hamad Bin Jasim Al-Thani (HBJ),told the press December 4 that Ahmedinejad proposed to the GOQ that he be invited to the GCC summit. HBJ said the invitation was extended after coordination with all GCC members. (NOTE: The press gave prominent coverage to photographs of Saudi King Abdullah and Ahmedinejad walking hand-in-hand, sending a message, according to observers here, that that the Iranian leader's participation was no surprise and was fully coordinated ahead of time. This, and HBJ's claim to the press, contradict Kuwaiti FM Al-Sabah's assertion to Qatar's Al-Watan newspaper that Kuwait learned about Ahmedinejad's summit participation only from press reports.) ¶6. (SBU) HBJ stressed to the press that Ahmedinejad's proposals are positive and show good intentions. He added that Iran is a neighboring country and the GCC is keep to establish good relations, cooperation, and dialogue with Iran. HBJ said that the U.S. is a strategic ally and that all GCC countries enjoy good relations with the U.S. But this, he added, should not prevent them from having good relations with Iran as well. He said that Iran is a neighbor, and having good relations with Iran enhances the stability in a region that exports about 40 percent of world energy needs. -------------- FEW TANGIBLE RESULTS -------------- DOHA 00001133 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) The one positive outcome of the summit, according to former Qatari Justice Minister and well-connected lawyer Najeeb Al-Nauimi, was an understanding between the GCC leaders and Ahmedinejad that Iran would increase its efforts on curbing the smuggling of drugs and other contraband from Iran to GCC states. Nevertheless, stressed Al-Nauimi, there was remarkably little progress on the issues that matter most to the people of GCC states (see reftel). For example, there was no movement toward the creation of a GCC common market or passport-free travel for citizens of GCC countries to other member states. Of particular interest to the U.S., added Al-Nauimi, the GCC heads of state did not broach the issue of depegging the currencies of GCC countries from the U.S. dollar. The final communique touted the reaffirmation of the GCC goal of a common market and common currency by 2010, though Al-Nauimi discounted the prospect of any near-term progress in this area. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The communique issued at the summit's close was short on achievements, but expectations were low to begin with. Had Ahmedinejad not participated, the story would have been Saudi King Abdullah's decision come to Doha - a victory of sorts for the Qatari Amir. In the event, Abdullah and the others sat by and watched Ahmedinejad make the headlines. The truth behind Ahmedinejad's invitation may take some time to sort out (no doubt there is enough disingenuousness to go around). But at the very least, it will stoke new complaints among Qatar's GCC brothers and fresh accusations of Qatari duplicity. RATNEY