UPDATE ON REINADO STANDOFF AND SECURITY SITUATION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000083

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, DS/IP/EAP
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY
PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/2/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MAAR ASEC CASC KPKO UN AU TT
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON REINADO STANDOFF AND SECURITY SITUATION

REF: DILI 078

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CLASSIFIED BY: Stanley Harsha, Charge d'Affaires, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)




1. (S/NF) Summary: At day's end March 2, there had been no
significant change to the situation on the ground in Same, where
dissident military leader Alfredo Reinado remains surrounded by
Australian Defense Force (ADF) soldiers. ADF reinforcements
have arrived in East Timor, but there are indications that ADF
action against Reinado could be delayed somewhat to allow
discussions between Reinado and the Prosecutor General to run
their course. In contrast to the optimism expressed to us March
1 by International Stabilization Force (ISF) Commander Brigadier
Malcom Rerden, Australian analysts attached to the ISF expressed
greater concern regarding possible backlash, particularly in the
western districts, if forceful action is taken against Reinado.
In addition to the loyalty of his close supporters, there are
strong indications that more mainstream opposition elements also
continue to sympathize with him. Meanwhile, the East Timorese
armed forces (F-FDTL) leaders met March 2 to discuss how to
intensify the process of dialogue with the military petitioners
in order to reduce the chances of more of them joining Reinado.
The international community continues to watch the situation
closely in terms of its security implications. Following
Australia's slight security status upgrade yesterday, sources at
the UN today reported that they are making preparations to go to
their next level if needed. A minor stone throwing injury
suffered by an ADF soldier today, while not out of the ordinary,
may impact Australian thinking on these issues. End summary.

Reinado standoff status
--------------


2. (S) At day's end, there has been no significant change to the
situation on the ground in Same. Dissident military leader
Alfredo Reinado remained there, with about 40 of his men,
surrounded by Australian Defense Force (ADF) soldiers. Three
C-130s arrived in Dili last night transporting what we assume to
be one ADF infantry company group. Based on information relayed
by ADF sources yesterday, they will be based in Dili to
compensate for the infantry company from Dili that is currently
engaged in Same. ADF Special Operations Forces elements have
also arrived, according to the Australian Embassy Charge
d'Affaires (CDA),and are making preparations for direct action
upon Reinado's redoubt.


3. (C/NF) According to the Australian CDA, Prosecutor General
Longinhos Monteiro traveled to Same the morning of March 2,
where he spoke to Reinado by telephone and then returned to Dili
to brief Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta. He then flew back to
Same the same afternoon and spoke directly to Reinado for two
hours in an open area in full view of the ADF forces, before
returning to Dili. Reinado returned to his house. The
Australians have not heard the results of the talks but
Ramos-Horta is to discuss the situation tomorrow morning with
other GOET officials and the ADF will take their cue on next
actions from that meeting. (Note: Australian Ambassador
Margaret Twomey today departed East Timor and is due back on
Monday, March 5. We do not know the reason for her departure
but speculate that she will be in Canberra to discuss the
situation.)

Australian analysts worried about backlash
--------------


4. (S/NF) In contrast to the optimism expressed to us yesterday
by International Stabilization Force (ISF) Commander Brigadier
Malcom Rerden, Australian analysts attached to the ADF expressed
greater concern regarding possible backlash. They raised
questions about how the population in the western districts will
respond to the outcome of the Reinado standoff, and were
uncertain as to whether national or international security
institutions in country will be able to manage "what comes

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next." At a minimum they believe there will be demonstrations,
but at this time it cannot be ascertained who the target will
be. They indicated that the population in western Timor could
express anger towards the leadership of East Timor, including
President Xanana Gusmao, concluding that it was the national
leadership which gave the ISF permission to launch its
operation. They also stated that the military petitioners were
"on the fence with their feet dangling on the Reinado side"
regarding the possibility of joining Reinado, but believe they
lack weapons and would likely not be much of a threat. They
also confirmed that there was a letter presented to the
Australian Embassy earlier this week signed by gang leaders in
many of the local area internally displaced person (IDP) camps
and leaders of martial arts groups (MAGs). The letter
reportedly stated that all IDP camps and MAGs are seeking the
expulsion of all Australians from East Timor, and that they will
engage in disruptive activities in order to achieve that end.

Indications that pro-Reinado sentiment is mainstream
-------------- --------------


5. (C) As noted in reftel, the National Unity Movement for
Justice (MUNJ) is squarely behind Reinado and, in fact, are
essentially in lock step with his arguments. In addition, there
are strong indications that more mainstream opposition elements
continue to sympathize with him. In a conversation today with
Emboff, opposition Democratic Party (PD) Secretary General
Mariano Sabino characterized Reinado as primarily a victim
rather than an agent of the crisis and someone whose primary
goal has been to secure justice. He cited as a double standard
the concept of going after Reinado for "weapons transfer" issues
in light of the actions of Fretilin and others during the
crisis. He particularly referred to the "Railos" group in
Liquica, which former Minister of Interior Rogerio Lobato is
accused of arming, also with weapons taken from the border
patrol unit (BPU). While he does not agree with Reinado's
recent actions, he questioned the President's prerogative to
declare the February 25 weapons seizure illegal and order
arrest, noting that this is the function of a law enforcement
investigation and the Prosecutor General, not of the head of
state. Overall, his assessment is that a forceful ADF action
vis-a-vis Reinado has the potential to produce a serious
backlash. The fact that this view is coming from one of the
more intelligent and thoughtful members of the opposition is of
note.

F-FDTL leadership discusses the petitioner issue
-------------- ---


6. (C/NF) East Timorese armed forces (F-FDTL) leaders met on
March 2 at Hera Port Naval Base to discuss ways to intensify the
process of dialogue with the military petitioners, in keeping
with the recommendations of the Commission of Notables. F-FDTL
Commander, Brigadier General Taur Matan Ruak, stated to CDA and
US Defense Representative in a March 2 meeting that it was
important to initiate immediate dialogue with the petitioners in
order to mitigate the likelihood that they will go over to the
pro-Reinado side. He, like ISF Commander Rerden, also seemed to
downplay concerns for "what comes next" following the conclusion
of the Reinado episode. He stated that F-FDTL knows who the
potential agitators are, that these individuals are being
"pressured" to keep things under control, and that he has shared
this information with the ISF. In addition, Ruak said he told
the ISF about all of the key terrain throughout the Same region
that should be of tactical interest to their planners, and that
now all relevant sites are occupied by ISF elements. Lastly, he
emphasized that President Xanana Gusmao's resolve remains strong
and steadfast.

Injury to ADF soldier may impact Australian calculations
-------------- --------------


7. (C) An ADF soldier was injured this afternoon as a result of
being hit in the eye with a rock thrown by an East Timorese
youth in the Dili suburb of Bebonuk, about one kilometer west of
Embassy-Dili. It is believed that this incident occurred in

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conjunction with an altercation between ISF elements and youth
gangs at a rice warehouse. In and of itself, this is not an
event of major significance; similar attacks against ISF
soldiers have occurred previously in the gang fighting context.
However, in light of the fact that it comes in the midst of a
period in which anti-Australian sentiment appears to be on the
rise, incidents such as this may have a greater impact on
Australian thinking about security issues.

UN and Australia security alert status
--------------


8. (SBU) Australian Embassy yesterday upgraded their security
status to level 5 "light". Normally level 5 would involve the
evacuation of non-essential staff and dependents; however, the
Australian Embassy is not evacuating anyone at this time. The
UN has also upgraded their security status without actually
going to the next level. They remain at level 2, but are making
preparations for the possibility of going to level 3. The UN's
level 3 would require evacuation of dependents and UN
volunteers. (Note: a UN volunteer evacuation could have
significant impact on election preparations as a large number of
electoral assistance in the districts is being provided by
UNVs.) The US Embassy sent out a warden message last night
updating security advice to American citizens in light of the
situation in Same and the potential for anti-Australian
sentiment to escalate and be indiscriminate regarding
foreigners. We are currently awaiting confirmation of the
posting of a new Travel Warning from Consular Affairs.
HARSHA