LANDSLIDE RAMOS-HORTA VICTORY GIVES OPPOSITION MOMENTUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000189 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM TT SUBJECT: LANDSLIDE RAMOS-HORTA VICTORY GIVES OPPOSITION MOMENTUM REF: A) DILI 182 B) DILI 185 DILI 00000189 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political/Economic Officer, U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of Defense. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: It is now a virtual certainty that Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta has won the May 9 runoff in a landslide, having picked up the vast majority of votes previously cast for the losing candidates of round one, while ruling Fretilin party candidate Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres gained only a few percentage points more than on the first round. Provisional results based on 100% of district returns gave Ramos-Horta 69% of the vote to Lu'olo's 31%. Regional differences remained strong, with the three eastern districts strongly supporting Lu'olo in contrast to the rest of the country. National tabulation is expected to commence the evening of May 11 and will likely be a less controversial process than the first round, reflecting improved election logistics as well as the foregone outcome. The UN and international observer missions have thus far characterized the process as fundamentally free and fair, although concerns regarding outstanding issues remain, especially as we look toward the June 30 parliamentary elections. The results are a major political blow to Fretilin, whose electoral invincibility is now clearly a thing of the past. Meanwhile, the opposition, although still divided among several competing parties, has gained tremendous momentum with Ramos-Horta's victory. Despite the overall success of this round, we will press all actors to avoid complacency and immediately turn to addressing both concerns about campaign conduct and needed improvements in the electoral systems in preparation for the June 30 parliamentary elections. End summary. Ramos-Horta wins in landslide, but Luo'lo still takes the East -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) As district level tabulation for the presidential runoff election got underway the evening of May 9, it quickly became evident that Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta was heading for a landslide win over his opponent, Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres, the candidate of the ruling Fretilin party. The nationwide voting pattern was clear: Lu'olo was receiving a similar proportion of the votes he received in the first round, augmented by only a few percentage points, while Ramos-Horta succeeded in picking up the vast majority of the votes previously cast for the losing candidates of round one. Early result calculations were that Ramos-Horta was winning with 75 percent of the vote. However, as in round one, the eastern district results which arrived last marginally boosted Lu'olo's numbers. According to the most recent informal results announced by the National Election Commission (CNE) late on May 11, Ramos-Horta received 69 percent to Lu'olo's 31 percent. Current numbers indicate that in contrast to earlier assessments, turnout may actually have risen for this round. ¶3. (U) The East-West political divide in East Timor is evident in the district-level results. In all ten western districts, including Dili, Ramos-Horta beat Lu'olo decisively. In contrast, Lu'olo remained the top vote getter in the three eastern districts. The current district-by-district break down is as follows, with eastern and western districts marked with E and W respectively in parentheses: District Ramos-Horta Lu'olo Aileu (W) 15,919 1,065 Ainaro (W) 16,303 5,104 Bobonaro (W) 30,172 5,473 Covalima (W) 17,075 5,299 Dili (W) 62,694 15,708 Ermera (W) 33,775 7,161 Liquica (W) 23,416 2,862 Manatuto (W) 13,447 3,215 Manufahi (W) 14,291 4,843 Oecusse (W) 19,228 6,848 Baucau (E) 16,686 33,332 Lautem (E) 12,829 13,480 Viqueque (E) 10,425 22,135 TOTAL 286,260 126,525 National tabulation and complaints process -------------- DILI 00000189 002.2 OF 003 ¶4. (U) The CNE reports that all boxes from the districts arrived at CNE headquarters, where the national tabulation will take place, as of about 3:00pm May 11. Verification that all documents are in order is underway and CNE expects the national tabulation to commence as soon as the verification is complete. According to sources at the CNE, the verification process is going smoothly and has so far revealed few of the problems encountered in round one, such as missing or incomplete documents accompanying the boxes. In addition, this round has been accompanied by far fewer complaints; only two have been received thus far. One alleged selling and purchasing of voter cards, a widespread allegation during the campaign, but does not include information on the location, timing or witnesses for the accusation. The second cannot be characterized as a complaint at all, as it simply states that there were no problems in Aileu. Evaluation of conduct -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In an UNMIT briefing to the diplomatic corps this morning, Special Representative for the Secretary General (SRSG) Atul Khare characterized the May 9 poll as basically free and fair. He emphasized that the decisive win by Ramos-Horta makes them politically successful, regardless of technical issues, because the country now appears to be largely united around the results. He reported on his conversations with both Fretilin Secretary General Mari Alkatiri and Lu'olo regarding the SIPDIS results, noting that both have indicated that they will accept the results "with dignity" and now turn their focus to the goal of gaining the greatest number of seats in the parliamentary elections. The UNMIT briefing also addressed some key outstanding issues that will require attention before the parliamentary election. Attendees noted that in contrast to the May 9 poll, the parliamentary election will be more complicated and with far narrower margins, making further improvements paramount. ¶6. (U) The U.S. mission fielded nine observer teams, covering all districts of the country but two. Mission observers observed some problems in the field, such as inconsistent observer access and an intimidating voting environment in a Fretilin stronghold area of Viqueque. However, in general, mission staff found that the election-day process was smooth and transparent. Other international observer missions have also spoken highly of the process. The European Union, whose observer mission has been resident in-country for the last two months, released a statement today in which it said: "The 9 May runoff presidential election has so far been well administered and peaceful, with respect for the fundamental freedoms of expression, assembly and association." However, the EU also noted several key areas of concern, pointing out that the campaign period was characterized by highly negative rhetoric on both sides and that use of state resources for campaign purposes was a serious problem. Moreover, the EU expressed its view that the CNE remained under resourced and its powers too limited. Political implications -------------- ¶7. (C) There appears to be a clear national consensus now that Fretilin's electoral invincibility has been shattered. National paper Suara Timor Lorosae ran a headline today announcing "The people finally punish Fretilin leaders". Fretilin's use of some unsavory campaign tactics and an apparent ballot stuffing attempt, while troubling, appear to have had no significant impact on the outcome. In fact, they may have backfired, turning more people away from Fretilin as many Timorese in the final campaign days compared their approach to Golkar's tactics during the Indonesian occupation and by pro-integration forces in 1999. Despite its questionable campaign record, Fretilin's leadership has so far responded responsibly to both the electoral defeat and the concurrent Court of Appeals decision to uphold the seven and a half year sentence of party Vice President and former Minister of Interior Rogerio Lobato. (This decision was announced on May 10, just as results showing DILI 00000189 003.2 OF 003 Ramos-Horta's decisive win were pouring into Dili.) It remains to be seen how Fretilin will adjust its campaign strategy heading into the parliamentary elections. Fretilin sources have told us that while their goal remains to obtain sufficient seats to form the next government, they are also preparing for the possibility of becoming an opposition party. ¶8. (C) The opposition now has the momentum heading into the parliamentary elections, with the runoff results making it clear that a united opposition can soundly defeat Fretilin. There is general consensus that Ramos-Horta owes his electoral victory in large part to the support of opposition parties who initially fielded their own candidates. However, as the round one results also show, a divided opposition can still leave Fretilin occupying first place. Moreover, in contrast to this week's poll, the parties again will be not only competing against Fretilin but also with each other. In recent conversations, outgoing President Xanana Gusmao who will take over the presidency of the newly-established CNRT as of May 20, has described a strategy in which he sees CNRT playing a role of assisting other parties by drawing off Fretilin's fire and giving other opposition parties greater political oxygen in which to operate. However, the more common view is that Fretilin will be able to maintain the percentages it has tallied in both rounds of the presidential race, leaving the rest of the field for the opposition to divvy up. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Although significantly improved from round one, there continue to be outstanding issues in the electoral system which need to be addressed, as well as concerns regarding campaign conduct. It is imperative that the electoral authorities, government and parliament immediately turn to addressing these issues in preparation for the June 30 parliamentary elections. The relatively smooth process of the May 9 poll could have the downside of producing a level of complacency which must be countered. The parliamentary elections, involving 16 competing parties, will be more complicated and the stakes are much higher. We will need to remain actively engaged both in conveying strong messages about campaign conduct and supporting concrete steps to improve the legal framework and overall process. End comment. NAGY