EAST TIMOR STABLE THROUGHOUT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000154 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/17/2017 TAGS: KPKO MOPS MARR PGOV PREL ASEC UN TT SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR STABLE THROUGHOUT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REF: A) DILI 120, B) DILI 132 DILI 00000154 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Major Ron Sargent, US Defense Representative, U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of Defense. REASON: 1.4 (a),(c),(d),(e) ¶1. (C) Summary. The government of East Timor conducted its first round of presidential elections April 9 largely without a significant security incident. In fact East Timor has been remarkably calm over the past two months, aside from the occasional martial arts group fight and minor clashes between opposing political supporters during the campaign. Surprisingly, the East Timorese Defense Force (F-FDTL) continues to conduct its "static security" missions throughout Dili while managing to avoid confrontation with other security institutions in the capital city, despite multiple violations of the defense force's own rules of engagement (ROE). Looking toward the second round of the presidential election scheduled for May 9 and the parliamentary elections taking place on June 30, it is unclear whether the current calm represents a temporary holding pattern of sorts. Recent improvements in the United Nations Integrated Mission in Timor Leste (UNMIT) willingness to share security sector information with diplomatic missions in country mean that the international community is increasingly able to function within the context of a common operating picture relative to the local security environment. This will ultimately enhance Post's ability to conduct predictive analysis regarding issues that pertain to the security of American interests. END summary. ¶2. (C) Many international observers in Dili have commented on the level of relative calm the city - and the rest of the nation - have experienced over the past few months. While the lead-up to the first round of the presidential election was marred by a few violent incidents in the country, it did not appear these incidents fed one another, and there has been no evidence which demonstrates that there is any pending build-up of tensions. It seems the people of East Timor are generally taking the current situation in stride, and are patiently awaiting the presidential run-off election which follows. ¶3. (C) According to International Stablization Force (ISF) sources, F-FDTL continues to engage in the same level of undisciplined behavior throughout Dili reported previously (reftels),but there are indications that it finally may be taking steps to police itself in a manner more consistent with maturing defense forces elsewhere in the world. In one recent incident, two drunk and armed F-FDTL soldiers on April 7 apparently fired about 20 warning shots at harassers who had approached them on motorbikes in Bairo Pite. However, these soldiers were reportedly detained by members of their own section and taken to F-FDTL Headquarters in Tasi Tolu. Defense Chief Brigadier General Taur Matan Ruak - who has a history of explaining away his soldiers' transgressions - assumed responsibility for the incident, but it is not clear what steps will be taken to account for the actions of these soldiers. Additionally, F-FDTL Operations Officer Major Coli Ati told the U.S. Defense Representative on April 13 that copies of the F-FDTL ROE were being mass-produced and would be provided to all soldiers as a means of ensuring that written copies of the ROE were physically in the hands of all soldiers involved in operations. Coli Ati stated that this would contribute to the creation of a means of accountability and that ignorance would no longer be viewed as an acceptable defense for anyone found to be in violation of the ROE. ¶4. (C) Amazingly, with all of the F-FDTL ROE violations involving drunken, armed soldiers engaging in boorish behavior over the past month, there has been only a single instance of an F-FDTL soldier threatening UN Police (UNPOL) officers in Kampung Baru on March 25 (reftels). Aside from that, there have been no other incidents Post is aware of where F-FDTL members have potentially come into armed conflict with either UNPOL or ISF members. Because of the wide distribution of F-FDTL "static security" posts throughout Dili and the large numbers of known F-FDTL ROE transgressions since mid-March, it is possible UNPOL and ISF members have been given instructions to maintain a wide berth around F-FDTL areas in order to minimize the chances for DILI 00000154 002.2 OF 002 armed encounters. Further, F-FDTL soldiers have been adept at committing their transgressions in parts of the city where both UNPOL and the ISF are not actively operating. ¶5. (C) Another positive development is the increased willingness of UNMIT security officials to share information pertaining to the security situation in-country. UNMIT representatives told Post that they intend to scale back UNPOL patrols in Dili to normal levels beginning on April 14, but that they remain concerned regarding potential problems in the run up to the parliamentary elections on June 30. UNMIT's new willingness to keep diplomatic missions informed should facilitate our ability to conduct predictive analysis relative to future events in East Timor that could decidedly impact upon American interests in-country. ¶6. (C) Comment: The current calm arguably underscores the persistent assertion that violent events which do take place in East Timor often happen by design rather than as spontaneous occurrences. It is possible the key political figures who have been suspected of being behind the violent spikes exhibited in Dili and elsewhere in-country are playing a wait-and-see GAME to determine the outcome of what all the balloting brings. Post is encouraged by the small steps F-FDTL seems to be taking towards a modicum of accountability. However, we remain disappointed in its slow pace considering the volatility and tension that would likely result from any armed incident between F-FDTL and international forces. Post will continue to work together with partner diplomatic missions and UNMIT, in accordance with the policy laid out in Ref A, in making clear to both the Government of East Timor and the leadership of F-FDTL that anything less than full accountability should be deemed unacceptable. END comment. NAGY