INITIAL ELECTION RESULTS ANNOUNCED, BUT DISPUTES LOOM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000148 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TT SUBJECT: INITIAL ELECTION RESULTS ANNOUNCED, BUT DISPUTES LOOM REF: DILI 141 DILI 00000148 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political / Economic Officer, U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Amidst emerging disputes over the counting of votes after a calm and smooth election day, East Timor's National Election Commission (CNE) today announced provisional results for the first round of the presidential elections, indicating Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres in the lead, followed by Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta and Fernando "La Sama" Araujo, president of the opposition Democratic Party (PD). Should these results be confirmed, Lu'olo and Ramos-Horta will face each other in a runoff on May 9. However, the parties and candidates have begun to respond to the emerging results, foreshadowing a possibly contentious verification process. Fretilin initially alleged manipulation, but appears to have backed away from this approach in the face of Lu'olo's first place position. A group of five opposition parties, including PD, have expressed dissatisfaction with the counting process, demanding an immediate suspension of the counting to address alleged irregularities. Although he harshly criticized Fretilin in a mid-day press conference, Ramos-Horta stated that he has no intent to dispute the results regardless of the ultimate outcome. The next few days will be a test both of the ability of the electoral system to handle complaints and disputes and of the ability of the respective parties to pursue their grievances responsibly. End summary. ¶2. (U) At their final press conference at 5:00pm local time April 11, the National Election Commission (CNE) announced the following initial presidential election results: -- Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres, president of the ruling Fretilin party, in first place with 28.79 percent. -- Jose Ramos Horta, the current Prime Minister, in second place with 22.60 percent. -- Fernando "La Sama" Araujo, president of the opposition Democratic Party (PD),in third place with 18.52 percent. -- Francisco Xavier do Amaral, president of the Timorese Social Democrat Association (ASDT),12.82 percent. -- Lucia Lobato of the Social Democratic Party (PSD),9.24 percent. -- Manuel Tilman (Kota),Joao Carrascalao (UDT),and Avelinho Coelho (PST) each received less than five percent. While officially announced, these results could still change significantly. This informal calculation was based on district tabulations received thus far; it appears to include the vast majority of valid votes cast, but at least nine Dili stations have yet to be counted, and there may be other counts pending as well. The CNE is scheduled to begin its official national tabulation process tomorrow and will post the formal provisional national results no later than April 14, after which they will be subject to the final step of Court of Appeal verification. ¶3. (SBU) The CNE announcement followed two days during which the results picture was in constant flux. While Ramos-Horta maintained a strong lead in Dili, from which the first results were announced, Luolo and Lasama subsequently gained in the eastern and western districts respectively. Results from the eastern districts were the latest to arrive and gave a significant final boost to Luolo's numbers. CNE twice daily press conferences at which it frequently announced erroneous information compounded the confusion. Father Martinho, CNE spokesperson, at times appeared to be making proclamations DILI 00000148 002.2 OF 003 without solid verification, and also on occasion cited preliminary and incomplete numbers as final. ¶4. (C) Last night, as publicly announced results were trending unfavorable to Lu'olo, Fretilin held a secretive press conference, inviting only a select group of media. Announcing that Lu'olo had already garnered 40 percent of the vote according to their parallel count (tabulated by candidate agents in the field),Fretilin declared that Lu'olo was still expected to win the first round outright with over 50 percent, and that it intended to file complaints regarding alleged manipulation. However, at this afternoon's CNE announcement, Lu'olo's chief advisor expressed a significant change of tune, indicating that the party was now happy with the results. Of note, he also added that according to the Fretilin count, Lasama was actually in second place and that the CNE count reflected a shortfall of 8,000 - 10,000 votes. It is not clear at this time whether Fretilin will be pursuing any complaints; it appears more likely that as long as Lu'olo retains his first place position, Fretilin will focus its efforts on the runoff. ¶5. (U) Ramos-Horta also held a press conference April 11 at which he denounced Fretilin intimidation tactics that prevented some from voting, particularly in the eastern district of Viqueque, and use of state resources during the campaign. Despite these allegations, he emphasized that he would not dispute the results should he fail to make the run off in the final outcome, reciting his oft repeated line that, "I will celebrate my own political demise." Already anticipating a runoff against Lu'olo, Horta outlined why he believed Lu'olo would be a poor choice for East Timor, noting that not only would it have negative domestic consequences, it would also reduce the nation's international standing. Emphasizing the importance of relations with Australia and Indonesia, Ramos-Horta cited the "radical" Fretilin group's anti-Australian tendencies and the fact that in five years as President of Parliament, Lu'olo had never visited Indonesia or reached out to members of Indonesia's legislature. ¶6. (SBU) The final press conference today, held by the opposition parties, raised the specter of a disputed outcome. Five candidates, who according to the current numbers failed to make the runoff including Lasama (PD),Xavier do Amaral (ASDT), Lucia Lobato (PSD),Manuel Tilman (Kota),and Avelino Coelho (PST),read out loud a letter later delivered to the CNE. The letter demanded an immediate cessation to the counting in light of multiple irregularities in the counting process, and stated that if counting continued, they would not be able to accept the results. The single piece of evidence presented at the press conference was the Dili district tabulation results, which they claimed included numerous discrepancies. Indeed, the number of total valid votes listed does not match up with a tally of the votes received by all eight candidates, showing a difference of over 600. When asked by a journalist the legal basis of the request to suspend counting, the candidates were unable to answer. Sources here confirm that there is no provision for such a request. However, having received the letter, CNE could choose to investigate the complaint if there is sufficient accompanying evidence. Despite this confrontational stance, however, our sources indicate that ASDT and PSD are already discussing a possible coalition to support Ramos-Horta. (PD, ASDT and PSD recently signed a coalition agreement for post-election governance arrangements.) ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The overall assessment by national and international observers of the election day process and the counting that has followed continues to be positive, although there are clearly some discrepancies in the district tabulation DILI 00000148 003.2 OF 003 results that will need to be addressed by the CNE. Whether the issues cited by the various candidates have legs, therefore, remains to be seen. Post will be pressing the message that complaints are a valid part of the process but must be pursued through the legitimate means outlined in the electoral laws and regulations. Whether the respective parties abide by these processes will be a test of their political maturity and commitment to the democratic process. How their complaints are handled by the relevant institutions will be a vital indicator of their credibility as we move toward the next rounds of national polling. End comment. NAGY