ALKATIRI CONFIDENT HIS MAN WILL WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000143 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/6/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KJUS MARR TT SUBJECT: ALKATIRI CONFIDENT HIS MAN WILL WIN REF: DILI 141 DILI 00000143 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political / Economic Officer, U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In an April 5 meeting with Charge d'Affaires, ruling Fretilin party Secretary General and former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri strongly asserted Fretilin would not be involved in any violence surrounding the presidential campaign, and expressed confidence that Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres would win outright on April 9, despite the widespread view that a run-off is likely. Looking toward the parliamentary elections, he reported that Fretilin is working on developing an agreement among the political parties to ensure government-opposition partnership after the coming elections, regardless of which party is in power. When CDA raised concerns about recent lack of discipline among Timorese armed forces (F-FDTL) deployed at static posts in Dili, Alkatiri responded by describing the F-FDTL as essentially a disciplined force, especially in contrast with the national police (PNTL). Alkatiri was also non-commital regarding near-term passage of a land law, but responded positively to CDA's offer to maintain an ongoing dialogue with Alkatiri as leader of the ruling party, remarking on the importance of the U.S.-East Timor relationship in the context of East Timor's need to be an active part of the international community. End summary. ¶2. (C) Charge d'Affaires April 4 met with former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri in his capacity as the leader of the ruling Fretilin party in order to discuss the upcoming presidential elections, scheduled on April 9, and to relay USG views regarding the proper conduct of the elections. Alkatiri expressed happiness with the overall conduct of the campaigns to date, noting only sporadic incidents in the districts when two or more campaigns crossed paths. He asserted that Fretilin's leadership would never promote violence, remarking that events "like Viqueque" (in which Fretilin members reportedly attacked a group of supporters of candidate Jose Ramos-Horta) "can happen" but that Fretilin always immediately controlled such outbreaks. Alkatiri expressed full confidence that Fretilin's candidate, Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres would win the presidential election outright and that no second round would be required. ¶3. (C) Looking towards the parliamentary elections, Alkatiri affirmed that Fretilin is currently working on campaign strategy preparation and that the party intends to go it alone, not seeking any coalition arrangement. However, he explained that the party is working on an agreement for post-election arrangements that they hope all parties can join. He said that some parties were already entering discussions on this idea with Fretilin, but noted the Democratic Party (PD) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) as having refused to discuss the idea so far. He described the prospective agreement as outlining a mechanism for consultation that would allow a partnership between the government and the parties in opposition. ¶4. (C) CDA raised USG concerns regarding the lack of discipline that has characterized much of the recent F-FDTL deployment in Dili, where soldiers are now assigned to a number of posts to provide static security. In addition, CDA noted the importance of both PNTL and F-FDTL carrying out their duties professionally and refraining from any interference in the election process. Alkatiri responded to concerns about F-FDTL discipline by noting that "it was the PNTL not the F-FDTL that imploded" during the 2006 crisis and that the F-FDTL has demonstrated that it is a disciplined force. He recognized, however, that there is a need for rebuilding and reconciliation in both institutions expressing that this must happen within the institutions before reconciliation between them can be effective. ¶5. (C) When asked whether Fretilin would be prioritizing the passage of a law on land and property, Alkatiri acknowledged the DILI 00000143 002.2 OF 002 importance of the law but also commented on the current difficulty of obtaining a quorum in parliament for the passage of any law. Nonetheless, he noted that it should be possible to bring the draft land and property law to a vote in the interregnum between the presidential and parliamentary elections. This contrasted with the views expressed by his close Fretilin allies, Minister of State Administration Ana Pessoa and acting Prime Minister Estanislaus, later the same day that passage under the current parliament is highly unlikely but that it should be made a high priority for the new parliament. ¶6. (C) CDA relayed to Alkatiri the U.S. mission's desire to maintain ongoing dialogue with him as the head of the current ruling party and also the historical party of the resistance. Alkatiri responded favorably, emphasizing the importance of the East Timor-U.S. relationship, further noting that East Timor needs to be a part of the international community, not operating outside it. In this regard, CDA reiterated the importance of a credible election process, noting in particular that this is vital for the successful negotiation of a Millennium Challenge Account compact. ¶7. (C) Comment: Alkatiri's rosy depiction of the issues contrasts with information gathered by Post from numerous sources. While conduct of the campaign has been marred by less violent incidents than expected, Wednesday's final rallies by the top three candidates in Dili produced a number of clashes as campaign convoys crossed paths. Almost all observers agree that a Lu'olo win is not a forgone conclusion and a second round will be likely (reftel). Regarding Alkatiri's proposed consultative mechanism between ruling and opposition parties, Fretilin has been consistently criticized for its exclusive approach to governance. This may be an attempt to counter such criticism, or it may also be an indication that Alkatiri is exploring arrangements to ensure Fretilin's continued relevance in the event of a Fretilin loss. Alkatiri's assertions regarding F-FDTL discipline are repeatedly belied by the litany of F-FDTL transgressions over the last two months. Regarding the land law, clear laws on land and property are urgently needed to begin to address the many conflicting ownership claims that are an important contributing factor in the continued displacement of thousands of Dili residents. In the longer term, a law is considered an indispensable prerequisite to economic development. However, Fretilin commitment to passage of such a law may be weak in part because of its potential impact on Indonesian indemnification claims. End comment. NAGY