RAMOS-HORTA CONCERNED BUT ANA PESSOA DISMISSIVE OF ELECTION

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SUBJECT: RAMOS-HORTA CONCERNED BUT ANA PESSOA DISMISSIVE OF ELECTION
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1. (SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta complained to
a gathering of diplomats March 21 that the elections law
amendment passed by Parliament that same day includes a
provision allowing political party symbols on presidential
election ballots. The decision, which Ramos-Horta said violates
the letter and spirit of what parties had agreed upon, clearly
favors Fretlin party candidate Francisco "Lu'Olo" Guterres.
This provision could also delay elections preparation, whether
or not the President vetoes it. Separately, Emboffs met with
Minister for State Administration Ana Pessoa March 16 to raise
concerns we have heard from various elections advisors about
legal and logistical issues that could jeopardize the April 9
presidential election, and the parliamentary elections to
follow, from being certified as free and fair by the UN
independent Election Certification Team (UNECT). UNECT and
other informed sources we have spoken with outlined a number of
issues, cited in the UNECT's most recent report, as remaining
unaddressed and of great concern, including flaws in the legal
framework, lateness of arrangements for the ballot papers, and
worries that the oversight body is insufficiently resourced to
provide credible checks and balances. In reviewing the issues,
we highlighted the real possibility that UNECT might not certify
the elections if some of these issues are not addressed.
Pessoa, who clearly knows issues in great detail, nonetheless
dismissed most of the concerns we raised as either invalid or as
"questions of minor detail" that have been or are being
addressed. She was equally dismissive regarding the potential
for non-certification by the UNECT, noting that she does "not
see any reason for it." End summary.


2. (SBU) In a March 21 meeting with diplomats to plead for more
humanitarian assistance, an upset Prime Minister Jorge
Ramos-Horta began the meeting by complaining about the a article
in an amendment to the election law passed by Parliament that
morning, which allows the use of party symbols on presidential
ballots. Ramos-Horta said Parliament "snuck in a clause" that
goes against the "letter and spirit" of what the political
parties agreed upon and which is "incompatible with the election
law." (Note: the National Elections Commission (CNE) several
days ago made a ruling prohibiting the use of political party
symbols on the presidential election ballot. The new law, if
promulgated, would trump this ruling. End note.) Parties can be
support a candidates but candidates are not supposed to be party
candidates, he said. He implored the ambassadors in the room to
voice their opposition to this move. Ramos-Horta said this
clause will benefit party candidates whose symbols are similar
to the Timor-Leste flag, a reference to the Fretilin whose
symbol has the same colors as the flag. President Xanana Gusmao
said he will veto the amendment, Ramos-Horta said.


3. (U) The election law ammendment also includes three changes
to the law on presidential elections that had been recommended
by the UN independent Election Certification Team (UNECT).
These include: an ammendment to allow more time for counting of
ballots at the polling stations, replacing the article that had
allowed only one hour before ballots were to be transported to
district counting centers; an ammendment providing for
re-polling for any sites where there are problems that prevent
voting on the scheduled day; and the removal of the requirement
that ballot boxes be transparent, a provision that had been
cited as unnecessary and unworkable.


4. (SBU) In a meeting with Minister for State Administration Ana
Pessoa on March 16, Charge d'Affaires (CDA) and Emboffs relayed
a number of concerns regarding preparations for the upcoming
presidential and parliamentary elections, noting that the USG is
taking this very seriously. In the meeting with Pessoa we
emphasized the risk that the UNECT might refuse to certify the
April 9 presidential elections if quick action is not taken on
key issues. Sources in UNECT, the UN Integrated Mission in
Timor-Leste (UNMIT),and U.S.-based NGOs working on the
elections have all shared with us the concerns that they believe
may threaten certification. Although ready to describe measures
being taken on various fronts to address current shortfalls,
Pessoa was nonetheless somewhat dismissive of UNECT, making one
reference to "people who are not familiar with the system and
reality" in East Timor. When pushed on the question of how she

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viewed the risk of non-certification and the implications such
an outcome would have for East Timor, she expressed that she was
not concerned about this, considered the necessary fixes to be
underway, and does "not see any reason" for non-certification.
(Note: Pessoa is considered a dedicated loyalist of the ruling
Fretilin party, a member of the core "Mozambique clique", and
very close to former Prime Minster Mari Alkatiri. She is also
believed to be the author of the clause in the election law
amendment allowing for party symbols on the ballots.)


5. (SBU) Regarding the range of flaws, ambiguities, or omissions
cited by UNECT in the legal framework, Pessoa characterized most
as essentially "questions of minor detail" that were properly
addressed through the development of subsidiary regulations.
This contrasts notably with our sources who have evaluated the
key legal issues - such as insufficient powers for the
independent supervisory body and complaint and appeal deadlines
so tight as to be useless - as being matters of law that must be
changed in the legislation in order to be addressed. One source
notes that there is no real obstacle to making the needed
changes, except for the political will to do so. Pessoa
acknowledged that there were some items that should be addressed
in the laws themselves, but noted that many items simply need to
be "clarified" rather than amended. She reported that she has
raised the need to quickly act on these issues with the
President of Parliament and members of her party and has asked
the director of the Technical Secretariat for Election
Administration (STAE) to keep her apprised of what amendments
have been tabled. Overall, she distanced herself from this
process declaring it to be a responsibility in Parliament's
hands that she could not control.


6. (SBU) Our sources have also expressed concern regarding the
arrangements for ballot paper printing and distribution. As
late as last week, there was no clear information available
about how and where the ballots would be printed and what
arrangements would be made to ensure their timely delivery to
over 500 polling sites, many in remote and inaccessible
locations. Pessoa reported that arrangements have now been made
for the printing to be done by a local vendor which will set up
in the STAE offices to ensure security. She noted confirmation
of the ballot contents had simply come too late to allow for the
overseas printing initially planned and that the plan to locate
the printing in STAE had been discussed with UN security and
election officials. An UNMIT source, however, relayed to us
that he is somewhat skeptical at the idea of the ballots being
printed in the STAE offices, i.e. under Pessoa's control, and
thought that overseas printing would have been workable and
possibly quicker. There is great concern, especially in light
of the party symbol issue discussed above, that the decision to
print the ballots at STAE was taken to allow Pessoa to have
greater control over the process.


7. (SBU) UNECT continues to note that the National Elections
Commission (CNE),the independent body charged with supervising
and monitoring the elections has been given insufficient powers
and resources. The role of CNE is especially important in light
of the fact that STAE, responsible for election logistics and
administration, reports directly to Pessoa's ministry and is
therefore widely regarded as lacking impartiality. Pessoa
quickly dismissed the idea that the CNE is under-resourced,
citing its state budget allocation of USD 160,000 and a European
Union grant of USD 600,000. (The state budget allocation to CNE
is about one tenth of that allocated to STAE.) In a
conversation with Poloff March 19, the Catholic Church
representative on the CNE elaborated on a range of resource
issues with which the CNE commissioners and staff continue to
struggle.


8. (SBU) Our sources have raised concern regarding the need for
arrangements to accommodate the thousands of Timorese citizens
that remain in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, with
one source noting that Pessoa has exhibited no interest
whatsoever in addressing this. There are concerns that IDPs may
not feel safe traveling to the voter registration sites in the
city, or may lack access to proper information. Pessoa
acknowledged that there had been some security issues that had

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impacted voter registration, including among IDPs, but described
these as having been addressed through security improvements.
She said that a single registration site had recently been
established at the airport IDP camp, but that in general she
sees no barrier to IDPs traveling to the various registration
sites especially as registration is nationwide. It should also
be noted that difficulties with registration are not limited to
IDPs. A source in Baucau who works on civic education programs
noted that a significant percentage of people living in remote
areas have not yet registered due to logistical issues in
accessing registration sites.


9. (SBU) We also relayed to Pessoa the importance we place on
the need for a level playing field during the elections. Of
particular concern, we noted, is the need to ensure that no
state resources are used for campaigning purposes and that all
candidates and parties have equal access to media. Neither of
these issues are directly addressed in the electoral
legislation. Pessoa stated that "of course" use of state
resources was unacceptable, but referred to the codes of conduct
currently being developed for various electoral actors as the
place where such issues would be explicitly addressed. A formal
ceremony for the signing of the candidate code of conduct for
the presidential race was held on March 16. It remains to be
seen to what extent the codes of conduct are adhered to given
that they do not carry the weight of law.


10. (SBU) Comment: It is unclear at this point whether the issue
of the party symbols could result in a delay of the elections if
Gusmao refused to promulgate the new law, whether by veto or by
taking no immediate action. If he refuses, the legal effect
would be that the old law, and the CNE ruling against the use of
party symbols, would stand. There is no evident legal mechanism
by which elections can be delayed outside of a national
emergency. However, whether printing of the ballots will then
go forward with this issue outstanding remains to be seen.
According to UNMIT, printing of the ballots must start within
days in order to ensure that the printing and distribution is
done in time for April 9. With the party symbol issue at the
forefront, these next few days could be critical. End comment.
HARSHA