AUSTRALIAN AND PORTUGUESE INTERESTS CONVERGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000110 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS,IO PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/15/2017 TAGS: KPKO MOPS PGOV PREL KJUS KDEM UN TT SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN AND PORTUGUESE INTERESTS CONVERGE REF: DILI 96 DILI 00000110 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Seiji T. Shiratori, DCM, EXEC, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: In separate discussions, the Portuguese and Australian ambassadors downplayed concerns about support for military dissident Major Alfredo Reinado in the western districts. Their views converge on one matter, that Alfredo is a fugitive from justice who should surrender or be captured. The Portuguese ambassador was not at all concerned about the logistical and regulatory preparations for upcoming elections in East Timor but did worry about security surrounding the elections and whether parties will accept the results. The Australian ambassador, on the other hand, shared our concerns and would like to join with us in presenting these to the UN and GOET. Our bilateral interlocutors believe that while Reinado is intelligent and thinks strategically militarily, he does not have a clear political strategy beyond opposition to the ruling Fretilin party. End summary. ¶2. (C/NF) In separate conversations with Portuguese Ambassador Ramos Pinto and Australian Ambassador Margaret Twomey on March 14, the Charge d'Affaires (CDA) found that though the two bilateral partners have many differing views on East Timor and related matters, they share similar outlooks and goals with relation to dissident military leader Alfredo Reinado. The Australians, because of their commitment to help the GOET maintain law and order, remain resolved that Reinado must surrender or be captured. The Portuguese, often viewed as close to the ruling Fretilin party and often criticized by Reinado and his supporters, would also like nothing more than to see Reinado's apprehension. Embassy officers also briefed Ambassador Twomey and her staff regarding their recent trip through the western districts and their observations that pro-Reinado sentiment is strong in the demographically dense western districts. We shared similar, though less detailed, observations with the Portuguese Ambassador. Both reacted with some concern about the level of support for Reinado but continue to insist that the dissident must be brought to justice and that the pro-Alfredo feelings among the populace would not necessarily lead to an uncontrollable reaction if Reinado is captured or killed. However, Ambassador Twomey was keenly interested in hearing our detailed description of wider support for Reinado in the western regions, information that she did not appear to have heard from other sources. She also took note of the strong Reinado support expressed to us recently by Dili Bishop Dom Ricardo da Silva and by influential priest Father Domingos Soares Maubere (see reftel),saying that the Australians are unable to meet with these persons at this time. She had met recently with opposition party leaders who had expressed similar misgivings about the operation to apprehend Reinado that we had heard in our conversation last week. ¶3. (C/NF) Both ambassadors opined that Reinado stands for little and thinks more tactically than strategically on political matters (though not necessarily so on military matters). They agreed that he is most noted for what he is against --- Fretilin. This dynamic is not new, our partners reminded, and with or without Reinado there would be a widespread sense of discontent with the current ruling clique in East Timor. The outwardly anti-Fretilin Catholic Church in East Timor, like its secular allies, is not against Fretilin for primarily ideological or social reasons. According to the Portuguese ambassador, this is largely just rhetoric and the real struggle is between those in the Church and in secular institutions who are currently in power and those who were left out of the current structure. ¶4. (C/NF) Both ambassadors held little faith in the prospects for negotiations with Reinado. They saw little to negotiate and expressed no trust in Reinado as an honest bargainer. They agreed that the longer Reinado remains at large and the more attention he garners, the more problematic the situation will become. Portuguese Ambassador Ramos Pinto added that it was a mistake for Timorese leaders to give Reinado attention from the beginning, since the day after he was involved in a gun fight DILI 00000110 002.2 OF 002 with the Timorese military (F-FDTL) on April 28. This attention has greatly magnified the influence of what Ramos Pinto described as an incompetent and criminal former military officer. ¶5. (C/NF) Ambassador Ramos Pinto was not at all concerned about whether the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in East Timor would take place as planned. Despite the outstanding issues raised by the UN Independent Electoral Certification team, he said the UN and GOET will be able to handle the logistical and regulatory preparations. He said the certification team's unaddressed detractions of the election plan are all minor ones, such as regulations that transparent ballot boxes be used. Somewhat defensive about criticism of Fretilin, Ramos Pinto said whether some parties accept a Fretilin victory is another issue but that the elections will be fair and should be accepted by all parties. Ambassador Ramos Pinto discounted our observation that potential voters in the western districts do not trust Timorese police (PNTL) to impartially provide security during the elections and that voter registration remains low. He also said there are adequate international security forces to keep the peace, saying that Timorese are basically law-abiding. Ambassador Twomey, on the other hand, immediately shared our concerns about the upcoming elections and said she would like to join us in any presentations of concerns we make to the UN or GOET. She said she would prefer we go in bilaterally, rather than with other Missions in order to maintain the focus and impact of the message. ¶6. (C/NF) Ambassador Ramos Pinto also downplayed commonly heard criticisms of Timor's justice sector, saying that the verdict in the case of former Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato is a good example that the system works, and for Reinado should address his grievance about the fairness of him facing justice when others have not. HARSHA