HASINA, ZIA MAY RETURN OR STAY AS THEY CHOOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 000690 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017 TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM PREL BG SUBJECT: HASINA, ZIA MAY RETURN OR STAY AS THEY CHOOSE REF: DHAKA 0646 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Geeta Pasi; reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (U) Government Relents: On April 25, the government issued two press notes announcing that Awami League President Sheikh Hasina is free to return to Bangladesh and that Bangladesh Nationalist Party Chairwoman Khaleda Zia is under no pressure to leave. The April 25 note on Hasina referred to the government's April 18 note "temporarily" banning Hasina based on "concerns for her personal safety" and said the decision to withdraw the measure was made in light of media and other objections. The press note on Zia cited media "speculation" about Zia's plans to leave Bangladesh and purported restrictions on her freedom of movement. The press note reiterates previous government statements that it "has never pressured and is not pressuring" Zia to leave the country, nor has it imposed any restrictions on her movements. ¶2. (C) The press reports the decision was made by the Chief Advisor and the Council of Advisers after two days of emergency meetings. In an April 25 conversation with Ambassador Butenis, the Chief Adviser's Spokesman, Fahim Munaim (protect) said Chief Adviser Fakhruddin and the advisers pushed hard for a decision and told the military to end the matter now. ¶3. (C) The increasingly overt actions to bar Hasina from and force Zia to leave Bangladesh were fast becoming an embarrassment to the government. Pictures of Hasina turned away in tears at Heathrow and daily reports of Zia's saga were creating public sympathy for the two political leaders and a rare detente between them. On April 22, reports circulated, later determined to be untrue, that Zia had been hospitalized for high blood pressure and would not be able to leave the country. On April 21, authorities permitted her eldest son Tarique, imprisoned for various charges including extortion, to visit her for a brief period fueling media speculation that the visit signaled her imminent departure. Tarique's visit comes after several days of events, beginning with the arrest of Zia's youngest son, Arafat "Coco" Rahman, which were widely perceived as pressure to induce her to leave Bangladesh (ref A). ¶4. (C) BNP Leadership Snafu: Rumors about Zia's fate may have contributed to reports on April 21, later rebutted, that Zia fired BNP Secretary General Mannan Bhuiyan and replaced him with Brigadier General (retired) Hannan Shah. By the evening of April 21, TV networks showed clips of Mannan Bhuiyan and BNP members declaring that Mannan Bhuyian was still the Secretary General of the BNP. Long time politician Mainuddin SIPDIS Bhuiyan told poloff that Shah, most likely, received word from Zia that "he would make a good BNP secretary general" and took it to mean he had been appointed. "Shah started the confusion," Bhuiyan explained, "by going to the press too fast and not having any appointment letter." ¶5. (SBU) Court Asks Government To Explain: On April 22, the High Court ruled that the GOB must explain within five days whether Zia was under arrest. Acting in response to a petition, the court noted that Zia was not allowed to receive visitors, her telephone connections were cut off, she was not permitted to attend the Independence Day celebration on March 26, and she was not permitted to attend a funeral. ¶6. (C) Comment: Although the government has backed away from tactics to pressure Zia to leave and to prevent Hasina from returning, it has by no means conceded defeat. The government continues to pursue investigations against both ladies, requesting financial records from banks even as it was issuing its face-saving press notes. The suspended arrest warrant against Hasina remains pending, while charges against Zia cannot be ruled out. End Comment. PASI