FORMER PM ZIA REPORTEDLY AGREES TO QUIT BANGLADESH

C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 000646

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: FORMER PM ZIA REPORTEDLY AGREES TO QUIT BANGLADESH

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Geeta Pasi; reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) Zia Agrees to Leave: Former Prime Minister and
leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party Khaleda Zia has
agreed to leave Bangladesh and not return, according to press
reports and sources close to Zia. Her decision comes less
than 48 hours after the arrest of her youngest son, Arafat
"Coco" Rahman, on unspecified charges. Coco was released at
1245 AM April 17, prompting speculation of a deal between Zia
and the government. Also on April 17, an appellate level
court stayed for six months proceedings in the extortion case
against Tarique Rahman, Zia's eldest son. Zia's departure
plans and destination are not yet final, however, leaving
open the possibility she might change her mind.


2. (C) Confirmation from Family: Tarique Rahman's wife,
Dr. Jobaida "Jhunu" Rahman, spoke with the Embassy and
confirmed Zia's decision to leave. Dr. Rahman said Coco's
arrest, coupled with threats by the military to file charges
against Zia and "create more trouble for" Tarique, left Zia
with no other choice. Dr. Rahman claimed the only condition
the family is seeking to impose is the release of Tarique on
bail on compassionate grounds with permission to travel
abroad for medical treatment. According to Dr. Rahman,
Tarique has high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and back
pain and has lost nearly 16 pounds since his arrest.


3. (C) And from Friends: Former BNP MP Mushifiqur Rahman,
one of the few non-family members permitted access to Khaleda
Zia's house, also told us that "it is more or less decided
that she will leave and that Arafat will go with her."
Tarique's fate remains undecided. A classmate and friend of
the Chief Advisor, Rahman said the military used Zia's
brother, Major (Ret'd.) Sayeed Iskandar and Major General
Rumi to broker the deal with Zia. Rahman also said the
threat of further charges was used to encourage Zia to agree
to leave. (Note: Zia appointed Rumi Director General Forces
Intelligence. End Note.)


4. (C) Departure Expected Soon: Rahman expects that Zia
might leave anytime before Sheikh Hasina's expected return
date on April 23. He said that Hasina left Bangladesh with
an understanding with the military that she would not return
and that Khaleda Zia would be sent abroad. He says that when
the military made no efforts to expel Zia, Hasina began to
announce her own plans to return. Now, he said, "the
military will send Zia abroad to prevent Hasina from
returning."


5. (C) Saudi Arabia Likely Destination: Media speculated
that Zia would leave for Saudi Arabia with Coco, and Tarique
would follow once granted "medical bail." Dr. Rahman would
not confirm the timing of the family's departure but implied
they would travel to Saudi Arabia.


6. (C) Comment: Public reaction was muted. Given the
fluid nature of Bangladeshi politics, few will count on Zia's
decision until she actually departs. Many people, including
political party insiders, believe political reform is not
possible so long as "the two ladies" remain in Bangladesh,
and will welcome their departure from Bangladesh. Whether
they will go quietly into exile, however, or will continue to
cast a shadow from afar, remains to be seen. End Comment.

BUTENIS