RUMORS SWIRL ON ZIA'S DEPARTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000489

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM BG
SUBJECT: RUMORS SWIRL ON ZIA'S DEPARTURE


Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, reason para 1.4 d.


1. (C) Summary. Senior party leaders say that Bangladesh
Nationalist Party chairwoman Khaleda Zia is ready to leave
Bangladesh, provided her two sons are allowed to go with her
and her exile, probably in Jeddah, is guaranteed to be
comfortable. If Zia does go and Awami League President
Hasina stays away, as seems likely, then the era of the "two
ladies' would finally come to a close and confront both
parties with hard choices on reform and new leaders. End
Summary.

Rumors Swirl
--------------


2. (C) As speculation mounts that Awami League President
Sheikh Hasina's current visit to the U.S. will turn out to be
much longer than advertised, contacts at all levels of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party tell us that party chairwoman
Khaleda Zia is finished and must leave Bangladesh. Four
former ministers separately report that her departure is
imminent, and two claim to be involved with or privy to
military (i.e., DGFI) negotiations with Zia.


3. (C) Zia, the BNP contacts report, has agreed to leave,
provided her sons Tarique and Koko, and perhaps other
relatives, are allowed to go with her. Tarique is in custody
and already faces one extortion charge relating to a party
nomination for the last election, while Koko -- the lower
profile younger brother -- is at liberty but on an unofficial
list of 50 corrupt persons facing government scrutiny
pressure. Former Home Minister Babar told the Ambassador
that deal calls for Zia to travel without Tarique, but
Tarique would be released in the near future to seek medical
treatment abroad and would not return.


4. (C) As widely anticipated, Zia seems to be looking at
Jeddah as a refuge. According to some contacts, she has
sought assurances she would live there in appropriate
comfort. Zia is reportedly under virtual house arrest in her
cantonment residence, with the land lines cut off and
visitors having to secure military permission to enter the
premises. She occasionally ventures out but rarely makes a
public appearance.

Post-Khaleda BNP
--------------


5. (C) Even Khaleda loyalists like former Finance Minister
Saifur Rahman now tell us Zia must go and that they had all
along warned Zia to act against corruption and party thugs
associated with Tarique. As many as one quarter of the
party's former members of parliament are reportedly ready to
support party Secretary General Manan Bhuiyan as new party
leader, but Bhuiyan is unable or unwilling to challenge Zia
face to face and wants to wait until she departs Bangladesh.
Because of the anti-corruption campaign's wide net, Bhuiyan
seems to have no serious rival within the party.

Awami League Still on Point
--------------


6. (C) In contrast to their BNP opposites, Awami League
officials who are not known to be overtly anti-Hasina
continue to toe the party line that Hasina will soon return
to Bangladesh and that the party appreciates that the GOB
reform agenda finds its roots in long-standing opposition
demands. They insist that prolonged criticism of Sheikh
Hasina at a recent party forum constitutes reform and signals
openness to change, although they equivocate when asked if
Hasina will move to submit her leadership to the vote of the
appropriate party council.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) If Zia goes, the likelihood that Hasina will return to
Bangladesh in the near future seems remote; even if she has
not already come to an understanding with the government.
BNP sources with good military and intelligence contacts
claim that Hasina is being blackmailed with evidence that she
took money from both Indian and Pakistani intelligence
agencies; even if Hasina is a free actor, it would take great

DHAKA 00000489 002 OF 002


courage for her to return to Bangladesh in these
circumstances. The incentive for the military to send
Tarique out of the country is tremendous since, as the son of
General Zia, he retains the ability to rally support among
Zia loyalists as long as he is alive or in the country.


8. (C) With Zia and Hasina gone, the era in which the "two
ladies" dominated Bangladeshi politics for nearly 20 years
would be finally at an end, much to the relief of many
Bangladeshis. But the joy could be short-lived. Both
parties would then no longer have the excuse to avoid tough
decisions on internal reform and identifying the next
generation of leadership, and it is by no means clear that
either party has the will or stamina to go down that road,
especially if the military continues to encourage former
members of parliament from both parties to join a king's
party.
BUTENIS