INDIAN VISIT SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR BANGLADESH

C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 000289

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BG
SUBJECT: INDIAN VISIT SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR BANGLADESH
GOVERNMENT


Classified By: A/DCM D. MCCULLOUGH, Reasons: Para 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary. The Indian foreign minister's upbeat visit
to Dhaka has fueled Pakistani apprehensions that Indian
influence is on the rise in Dhaka. Under these
circumstances, it is hard to see the Indian government,
widely perceived to be very close to the Awami League,
supporting Sheikh Hasina's threat to hit the streets if
elections are not held by May. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Concluding his one-day visit to invite Bangladesh to
attend the April SAARC meeting in New Delhi, Indian External
Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee declared on February 19
that Indo-Bangladeshi relations are now on an "irreversible
higher trajectory." According to local press reports, the
two sides agreed to:

-- Permit the annual duty-free entry to India of two million
pieces of Ready Made Garments (RMG) from Bangladesh;
-- Ease Indian restrictions on importing Bangladeshi
cosmetics; and
-- Expedite the start of passenger train service between
Sealdah and Joydevpur.


3. (SBU) Asked about Indian plans to divert waters from 1500
MW Tipaimukh dam project, Mukherjee assured Bangladeshis, who
are concerned that the project would deprive the Surma and
Kushiara rivers of their normal flows, that India has no
intention of diverting water at the Tipaimikh project.


4. (C) Bangladesh Institute of International Strategic
Studies (BIISS) analyst Dr. Abdur Rob Khan complained to
poloff that there is large-scale smuggling to West Bengal of
Bangladeshi garments, and that duty-free access is simply "a
recognition of what is happening informally." As for the
promise not to divert water from the Tipaimukh dam project,
"We have heard these promises before, so it's not
substantially different." In addition, he said, Bangladesh
would have problems fulfilling its part of the train service
agreement because of the poor state of Bangladeshi railroads.
However, Khan acknowledge, the good news is "the Indians are
positively disposed to conduct business with this government."


5. (C) Mukherjee's visit has fueled Pakistani apprehensions
that Indian influence in Dhaka is on the rise. In a February
21 meeting with Ambassador, Pakistan High Commissioner
Alamgir Babar noted India has even offered to sell Bangladesh
electricity from West Bengal when India itself has shortages.
He acknowledged widespread rumors, which we have heard from
contacts in both parties, that he has encouraged the leaders
of the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party to
work together to force early elections to dislodge the
current government. Asked if the rumors were true, he
stiffly replied that Islamabad is watching developments here
closely.


6. (C) Comment: The sourness of the BIISS analyst aside, the
visit of Mukherjee indicates a striking improvement in
bilateral atmospherics. Under these circumstances, it is
hard to see the Indian government, widely perceived to be
very close to the Awami League, supporting Sheikh Hasina's
threat to hit the streets if elections are not held in May.
BUTENIS