GOVERNMENT MOVES CAUTIOUSLY ON RELAXATION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001490 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BG SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT MOVES CAUTIOUSLY ON RELAXATION OF INDOOR POLITICS BAN REF: DHAKA 1472 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Geeta Pasi, reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The caretaker government is attempting to walk a fine line regarding the relaxation of the ban on indoor politics. The official gazette notification strictly proscribes the activities parties are permitted to undertake. While authorities permitted most parties to reopen their central offices in Dhaka on September 10, they kept the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) office shuttered. The move to ease the ban has been cautiously welcomed by domestic and foreign observers, but many remian skeptical of the government's true intentions. END SUMMARY. RELAXING THE INDOOR POLITICS BAN: BABY STEPS ============================================ ¶2. (SBU) "Less than meets the eye," is the description one journalist gave regarding the September 9 announcement by Chief Advisor Fakhruddin Ahmed that the government was relaxing the ban on indoor politics. In his televised speech to the nation, the Chief Advisor said the government "will lift the restrictions on indoor politics tomorrow to create an environment conducive to talks with political parties." After the speech, however, government officials and media began referring to a "relaxing" rather than "lifting" of the ban. A LIMITED "LOOSENING" ===================== ¶3. (SBU) The gazette notification from the Ministry of Home Affairs states that the government is "loosening" the indoor politics ban. The notification lists several conditions. Key among the provisions, the government is only permitting political meetings within the Dhaka metropolitan area. According to Law Advisor Barrister Mainul Hosein, the country is not ready to begin political activities outside of Dhaka. For the time being, divisional representatives of parties can come to Dhaka to conduct their meetings. In spite of this, on September 10 the main parties began announcing the opening of their field-level offices, and the government subsequently ordered a stop to this. ¶4. (SBU) Several other conditions are imposed. Parties will need to seek permission from the Dhaka Metropolitan Policy 24 hours ahead of party meetings. For meetings of more than 50 people, they will need permission of the Home Ministry 48 hours in advance. The venues for such meetings are limited to party offices, members' residences, restaurants and hotels; outdoor public gatherings remain forbidden. In addition, only party members can participate, and only matters related to the internal organization of the parties or election preparations can be discussed. Media cannot broadcast the meetings live, though they can use footage in regular news bulletins. MOST CENTRAL PARTY OFFICES OPEN =============================== ¶5. (SBU) Most major parties, with the exception of the BNP, re-opened their Dhaka central offices September 10. The Jatiya Party and Jamaat Islami party offices opened without incident. Police prevented supporters of Khaleda Zia from entering the BNP facilities. AWAMI LEAGUE: REFORMIST ATTACKED BY PRO-HASINA CROWD ============================================= ======= ¶6. (SBU) The scene at the Awami League was more disruptive, according to press accounts. When acting party General Secretary Mukul Bose, a so-called "reformist" and sometime SIPDIS critic of party president Sheikh Hasina, arrived at the main central party office, he was warned by a crowd of party loyalists outside not to speak about any "reforms." When other party leaders tried to calm the situation, a group of Hasina loyalists grabbed Bose and threw him against a car, accusing of him of being "an agent of the government." Police were present but did not intervene. Bose later called for Hasina's release, and said the party had yet to decide DHAKA 00001490 002 OF 002 whether to enter into dialogue with the Election Commission if Hasina remains behind bars. BNP: ZIA LOYALISTS STYMIED IN EFFORT TO OPEN CENTRAL OFFICE ============================================= ============== ¶7. (SBU) Police would not permit the BNP to reopen its downtown Dhaka office. Early on Sepetmber 10, several hundred BNP workers loyal to Zia gathered in front of the building and began shouting slogans against former BNP Secretary General Mannan Bhuiyan, who was removed from his SIPDIS party post and expelled from the party by party chairperson Khaleda Zia shortly before her September 4 arrest on corruption charges. When Khandaker Delwar Hossain, the new Secretary General appointed by Zia after she fired Bhuiyan, SIPDIS attempted to open the office later that day, he was stopped by police. By the end of the day, according to journalists, the BNP office was the only major party office in Dhaka that did not open. ¶8. (C) According to a journalist who observed the situation in downtown Dhaka, whichever BNP faction manages to control the party office will ultimately control the party. If Zia's faction had been permitted to open the office, it would have meant the end of Bhuiyan's efforts to retain control of the BNP. By preventing the opening of the office, the government has managed to postpone, at least for now, a reckoning over which side will prevail. JOURNALISTS EXPRESS SKEPTICISM ============================== ¶9. (C) At a gathering of journalists on September 10, several were critical of the apparent discrepancy between the Chief Advisor's September 9 speech, in which he said the ban would be lifted, and the limited easing of the ban detailed in the gazette notification by the Home Ministry. One reporter said the limited easing of the ban was a continuation of military efforts to control the political terrain by stage-managing so-called "reform efforts" within the two main parties aimed at ousting the ladies. (COMMENT: Smarting from their treatment by the military and the caretaker government under the state of emergency, privately most journalists are not inclined to give the government the benefit of the doubt. END COMMENT.) COMMENT: A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ====================================== ¶10. (C) COMMENT. The Chief Advisor's speech on September 9 was a step in the right direction. While the international community welcomed his statement -- and particularly the relaxation of the indoor politics ban -- it still represents only a limited opening for the parties. Whether it is enough of an opening to draw them into a dialogue with the Election Commission on reform remains to be seen. The fact that authorities prevented BNP Zia loyalists from opening BNP offices has led to speculation the government and military are determined both to stage-manage the parties' activities and to ease the ability of reformists to take the reins from the ladies. We can expect to see lots of jostling between factions of the major parties now that they have limited permission to meet. END COMMENT. Pasi