AWAMI LEAGUE REVERSES COURSE, ANNOUNCES ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000013 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM BG SUBJECT: AWAMI LEAGUE REVERSES COURSE, ANNOUNCES ELECTIONS BOYCOTT REF: A. DHAKA 6844 ¶B. DHAKA 6838 Classified By: DCM Getta Pasi; reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On January 3, Awami League (AL) leader Sheikh Hasina announced that the AL and its "grand alliance" partners would boycott and resist the January 22 parliamentary elections, claiming the Caretaker Government has failed to ensure the conditions necessary for free and fair elections. Hasina also announced a new agitation program to press alliance demands, which include a new election schedule and the resignation of President Iajuddin Ahmed as the Chief Advisor. Publicly, the AL points to the disqualification of former President Ershad, leader of alliance partner Jatiya Party, as the precipitating factor. Privately, many AL supporters admit the alliance is unprepared to contest the elections as scheduled and has run out of time to prepare and campaign. END SUMMARY AWAMI LEAGUE REVERSES COURSE -- AGAIN ===================================== ¶2. (SBU) The Awami League-led 14 Party Alliance and its partners in the "Grand Alliance" -- the Liberal Democratic Party and the Ershad led wing of the Jatiya Party -- announced at a January 3 press conference that they will boycott elections scheduled for January 22 and will withdraw all previously submitted party nominations. The announcement came just hours before the deadline for withdrawing candidate nominations. It is too early to tell whether the AL and its partners will be able to complete the withdrawal of their party approved candidates by the deadline. Also unclear is whether party members who filed to contest but then were not designated as their party's candidate will maintain party discipline and withdraw their nominations. ¶3. (SBU) Hasina justified the boycott on the grounds that President Iajuddin Ahmed had violated the constitution by taking over as Chief Advisor. Although the AL had been willing to overlook his actions and work with the Caretaker Government, Hasina said it is now clear the Chief Advisor has failed to create an environment conducive to free and fair elections. Hasina provided a list of reasons why the AL believes that free and fair elections are not possible. She cited discrepancies with the voter list, claiming the Election Commission has already provided local election officers with voter lists that omit the names of AL supporters and minorities. Among other charges, she said polling stations had been moved to far off locations and alliance supporters were being harassed and arrested by the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and police. RENEWED DEMANDS BACKED BY NEW AGITATION PROGRAM ============================================= == ¶4. (SBU) Hasina renewed previous demands for the resignation of President Iajuddin Ahmed as Chief Advisor, postponement of the elections beyond January 22, the reconstitution of the Election Commission and its secretariat, and the dismissal of local election officials. The Election Commission must allow at least 15 days after publication for public scrutiny of the voter list. (Note: the final list has not let been published.) She also called for issuance of voter identification cards. To press these demands, the AL announced a new agitation program, beginning with a January 5 demonstration, a transportation blockade for January 7 and 8, and a "siege" of Bangabhaban, the President's office and residence, until he agrees to resign as Chief Advisor. She also called on the Bangladesh Rifles and the police "to side with the people against the vote stealers." ERSHAD DECISION THE "TIPPING POINT" =================================== ¶5. (C) Privately, other AL leaders confided to us that last week's decision by the attorney general's office to accelerate court proceedings in a long-standing corruption case against former president Ershad was the "tipping point." The actions led to a court decision confirming a prior conviction against Ershad and ordering him to report to jail. Efforts by Ershad's attorney's to stay the court action were rebuffed by the "vacation judge" responsible for interim matters while the Supreme Court is in recess. The court DHAKA 00000013 002 OF 002 decision left Ershad legally ineligible to contest in the upcoming elections and the Election Commission therefore rejected his nomination. Ershad's party promptly announced it would boycott elections and reconfirmed its decision at today's press conference. ¶6. (C) Senior AL leader Saber Hossain Chowdhury told POLOFF that when the "grand alliance" announced participation in the elections on December 23 (Ref B) it provided an opportunity for the Caretaker Government to take steps to create a "congenial" atmosphere for elections. Instead, a "biased" Attorney General's office moved up the timeline for dealing with Ershad's corruption cases, so that the resulting decisions would force the Election Commission to reject his nomination papers and thus bar him from this election. This was a "slap in the face" to the alliance, Chowdhury said, and showed that the Caretaker Government had no intention of creating conditions for AL participation. CANDIDATE SELECTION IN DISARRAY =============================== ¶7. (C) Another major problem for the "grand alliance" has been seat allocation and candidate selection. The late formation of the grand alliance meant negotiations among alliance partners were not finalized by the December 26 filing deadline for nominations. As a result, over 4,000 candidates registered to run, about 1,000 more than in 2001. This bought the alliance time, until the January 3 deadline for withdrawing nominations, but forced an accelerated, and many now say flawed, candidate selection process. In addition, all three alliance partners (as well as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party) face "rebel" candidacies from party dissidents who would not agree to give up their race for the approved alliance party nominee. Internal dissension was rife within the AL and newspapers reported a grassroots rebellion within the AL against alliance candidates nominated by the Khelafat-e-Majlish (Ref A) and other Islamic parties included in the alliance. ¶8. (C) After the press conference today, Hasina told the Ambassador in private that she will postpone the agitation program if the Election Commission announces a new election schedule before January 5. She also expressed the opinion that the military could play a positive role in restoring order, and said she now expects that the three service chiefs will pressure Iajuddin to step down as Chief Advisor. For the third time, she told Ambassador that RAB and police were attacking her supporters. As on previous occasions, Hasina demurred when asked to provide details. When pressed on the same issue, AL Foreign Policy Advisor Syed Abdul Hossain and AL Presidium member Kazi Zafarullah said no list was available "because there have been so many attacks." Zafarullah admitted, however, that he had received no reports of attacks on AL supporters in his Faridpur constituency but said he "anticipated" them. ¶9. (C) Ershad also met privately with the Ambassador. He confirmed that his disqualification precipitating the alliance's decision to boycott. He also candidly acknowledged that the alliance was not prepared to contest elections on January 22 and would need more time. COMMENT: POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS AT HEART OF DECISION ============================================= ========= ¶10. (C) While none of these charges are new, the AL and its allies have now entered uncharted waters by calling for the withdrawal of candidates and calling for resistance to elections on January 22. The AL's demands are not new, but two things have changed since last week: Ershad's nominations were invalidated, and the alliance's candidate selection process descended into chaos. With these two challenges suddenly calling into doubt the AL's chances of victory they apparently calculated that delaying elections might buy them more time to swing the pendulum back in their favor. BUTENIS