BNP REFORMER DISCUSSES STATE OF INTERNAL BNP

C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 001149 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2017 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM BG SUBJECT: BNP REFORMER DISCUSSES STATE OF INTERNAL BNP POLITICS Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Elizabeth Gourlay; reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. On July 9, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) former MP Dr. Ziaul Haque Molla told poloff about the state of reform efforts taking place within the BNP. He said the BNP senior leaders are attempting to convince the National Executive Council to enact reforms, but that Zia is fighting back. Molla believes that for reforms to happen Zia must be arrested. End summary. BNP REFORMERS OPTIMISTIC BUT... -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) MP Dr. Ziaul Haque Molla was optimistic the BNP reformers would succeed in pushing their reforms forward. Molla told poloff that this would be the only opportunity for honest politicians to make changes since liberation. He said that an estimated 1,000 council members and potential Zia supporters have been arrested or are in hiding. &No quorum is needed so we think that many will side with us.8 He conceded that only Khaleda Zia as chair had the authority to call for a meeting of the 2,500 person National Executive Council (NEC) and that the reformers don,t yet have the two-thirds majority needed to change the BNP constitution. ...ZIA FIGHTS BACK -------------- ¶3. (C) Molla said senior BNP leaders are meeting with groups of local leaders and telling them about the reform efforts. This will be a slow process and &we will not know for another three to four months if we have convinced all the local leaders.8 Molla said that Zia is fighting back and calling the same local leaders on the telephone and asking them to resist the reforms. &Most of them are illiterate and susceptible to her charm.8 ¶4. (C) Asked about the ban on politics, Molla said that the army tolerates small groups discussing politics. He added that were the ban on politics lifted, &the loyal supporters of Zia would crush the reform movement.8 He said that while the reform movement had the tacit support of the government, many reformers were cautious about traveling to their home districts fearing physical attacks from Zia loyalists. ARMY DEVELOPS OPTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) Molla admitted that the army does not believe "one hundred percent" that the BNP can reform the party and so are preparing other options such as supporting the formation of Ferdaus Quarishi's yet unnamed party. Molla added that starting a new party is difficult especially for someone who has never been an MP. Molla opined that the army's plan to appoint civilian district coordinators composed of ex-army officers and bureaucrats was an effort for the army to have their own local level political network were the party reform efforts fail. ¶7. (C) Comment: The BNP political structure is heavily centralized in Zia's hands, making reform difficult. In addition, if reforms occur the party might need to spend time to rebuild itself. Molla made this clear when he told poloff, "We need to have Zia arrested so we can complete our reforms. As for the date of the election, we are mentally prepared to go past 2008." PASI